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Junior Women

28.09.2025 Birzebbuga MLT
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Junior Cup Birzebbuga

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 57/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 73.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 84.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.2
Mean swim error24.0 s
Mean bike-speed error4.50 km/h
Correct bike groups5/24
No history2
Within the 80% range42.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Anouk Danna
SUI
+20 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:52
19:20
 48:29
Show details
Prediction details: Anouk Danna

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Error: −2:28 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 48:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:13 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Total: 48:29
2 / 22 Zóra Filep
HUN
+12 s
+16 s
G1 / G6
 18:45
23:35
 50:22
Show details
Prediction details: Zóra Filep

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -3.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:35 (4:43 / km)
Error: −4:50 / −0:58 / km
Overall prediction: 50:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:13 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Total: 50:22
3 / 3 Dóra Pusztai
HUN
+13 s
+6 s
G1 / G2
 18:46
20:27
 50:23
Show details
Prediction details: Dóra Pusztai

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:27 (4:05 / km)
Error: −1:41 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 50:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:13 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Total: 50:23
4 / 8 Jara Banka
GER
+18 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 18:51
21:37
 50:28
Show details
Prediction details: Jara Banka

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -0.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:37 (4:19 / km)
Error: −2:46 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 50:28
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:13 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Total: 50:28
5 / 13 Rachel Miller
USA
+58 s
+67 s
G3 / G4
 17:35
20:42
 50:39
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel Miller

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 11:01
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: -8.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 33.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:42 (4:08 / km)
Error: −3:07 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 50:39
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:01 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Total: 50:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 31.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 10 Csenge Orsolya Szász
HUN
+53 s
+23 s
G3 / G4
 17:36
20:22
 50:40
Show details
Prediction details: Csenge Orsolya Szász

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:56
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 30.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Error: −2:46 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 50:40
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:56 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Total: 50:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 27 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Sarah Walter
GER
+29 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:05
21:28
 50:57
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Walter

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 19.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:28 (4:18 / km)
Error: −3:23 / −0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 50:57
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:18 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Total: 50:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 3.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 11 Amélie Gorka
SUI
+15 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 19:28
22:01
 51:05
Show details
Prediction details: Amélie Gorka

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–12
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 1.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:01 (4:24 / km)
Error: −2:33 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 51:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:13 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Total: 51:05
9 / 4 Clara Robert
BEL
+34 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:31
20:54
 51:23
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Robert

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 15.0 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:54 (4:11 / km)
Error: −2:23 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 51:23
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:18 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Total: 51:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 7.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 19 Lotti Lédeczi
HUN
+60 s
+72 s
G3 / G5
 18:33
21:59
 51:37
Show details
Prediction details: Lotti Lédeczi

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: -12.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:59 (4:24 / km)
Error: −3:26 / −0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 51:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Total: 51:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 33.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 15 Vanessa Del Carlo
ITA
+62 s
+17 s
G3 / G3
correct 		19:40
21:42
 52:44
Show details
Prediction details: Vanessa Del Carlo

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–20
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 45.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:42 (4:20 / km)
Error: −2:02 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 52:44
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Total: 52:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 36 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 16 Lia Depret
BEL
+61 s
+74 s
G3 / G5
 19:41
20:33
 52:45
Show details
Prediction details: Lia Depret

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 12–18
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 11:04
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: -12.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:41 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 52:45
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:04 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 19:41 (3:56 / km)
Total: 52:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 35.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 14 Carlotta Verde
ITA
+57 s
+9 s
G3 / G2
 20:00
22:15
 53:04
Show details
Prediction details: Carlotta Verde

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 48.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:15 (4:27 / km)
Error: −2:15 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 53:04
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:00 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Total: 53:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 31.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 23 Giorgia Abbatantuono
ITA
+49 s
+0 s
G3 / G7
 20:01
22:42
 53:05
Show details
Prediction details: Giorgia Abbatantuono

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 48.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:01 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:42 (4:32 / km)
Error: −2:41 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 53:05
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 20:01 (4:00 / km)
Total: 53:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 22.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 9 Nicole Fasano
ITA
+70 s
+13 s
G4 / G2
 18:50
21:48
 53:26
Show details
Prediction details: Nicole Fasano

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–19
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 11:13
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 56.7 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 16.3 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:48 (4:22 / km)
Error: −2:58 / −0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 53:26
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:13 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:26 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Total: 53:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 43.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17 Maxime Geentjens
BEL
+49 s
+25 s
G3 / G4
 20:40
21:40
 53:44
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Geentjens

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 24.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:40 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:40 (4:20 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 53:44
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 20:40 (4:08 / km)
Total: 53:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 23.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 20 Nerea Demuyt
BEL
+69 s
+74 s
G4 / G5
 19:48
22:29
 54:24
Show details
Prediction details: Nerea Demuyt

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 11:12
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: -5.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:29 (4:30 / km)
Error: −2:41 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 54:24
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:26 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Total: 54:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 42.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 2 Laly Porentru
FRA
+52 s
+14 s
G3 / G2
 21:25
19:49
 54:29
Show details
Prediction details: Laly Porentru

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 17–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 37.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:25 (4:17 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:49 (3:58 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 54:29
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 21:25 (4:17 / km)
Total: 54:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 25.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 25 Florence Crowley
GBR
+67 s
+8 s
G4 / G9
 20:28
25:15
 55:04
Show details
Prediction details: Florence Crowley

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 11:10
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 59.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 28.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:15 (5:03 / km)
Error: −4:47 / −0:57 / km
Overall prediction: 55:04
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:10 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:26 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Total: 55:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 40.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 21 Luna Sommerfeld
SUI
+106 s
+98 s
G5 / G7
 19:08
21:55
 55:41
Show details
Prediction details: Luna Sommerfeld

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 19–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +106 s
Time: 11:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +98 s
Fehler: 8.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:55 (4:23 / km)
Error: −2:47 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 55:41
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:49 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:47 (34.7 km/h)
Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Total: 55:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 80.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 5 Noemi Badrutt
SUI
+33 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		23:52
21:07
 56:44
Show details
Prediction details: Noemi Badrutt

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 21–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 16.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:52 (4:46 / km)
Historical basis: 4:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.17 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:07 (4:13 / km)
Error: +2:45 / +0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 56:44
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:18 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 23:52 (4:46 / km)
Total: 56:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 6 Darcy Gladwell
GBR
+87 s
+8 s
G5 / G2
 20:16
21:08
 56:49
Show details
Prediction details: Darcy Gladwell

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 21–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 11:30
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 79.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 19.2 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:08 (4:14 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 56:49
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:30 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:47 (34.7 km/h)
Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km)
Total: 56:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 60.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 24 Zuzana Vedejová
SVK
+86 s
+76 s
G5 / G9
 21:22
23:29
 57:55
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Vedejová

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:22 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:29 (4:42 / km)
Error: −2:07 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 57:55
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:29 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:47 (34.7 km/h)
Run: 21:22 (4:16 / km)
Total: 57:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 59.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Elen Ruck
GBR
+24 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
22:00
Show details
Prediction details: Elen Ruck

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 8.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:00 (4:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:13 (38.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 18 Siena Stephens
GBR
+0 s
+5 s
G0 / G2
23:28
Show details
Prediction details: Siena Stephens

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:28 (4:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 26 Yelena Devolder
BEL
+0 s
+17 s
G0 / G8
26:05
Show details
Prediction details: Yelena Devolder

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:05 (5:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.