Prediction comparison
Junior Women
31.08.2025
Lake Jarun
CRO
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Junior Cup Zagreb
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 31.08.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v15
Default values
Prediction quality
52/100
niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 64.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.5
Mean swim error18.2 s
Mean bike-speed error1.87 km/h
Correct bike groups20/53
No history3
Within the 80% range39.3 %
| Details | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 1 |
SUI
|
+19 s
+16 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
16:50
16:56
|
49:42 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen,
88 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.08 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
2.9 s
Gap behind:
0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen,
61 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.23 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:15
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
16:50
(3:22 / km)
Total:
49:42
|
| 2 / 5 |
SUI
|
+59 s
+67 s
|
G3 / G2
|
16:23
17:12
|
50:14 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 2
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: -8.5 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen,
109 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.56 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.5 s
Gap behind:
1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.49 km/h
Running and totalRun: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen,
51 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.64 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 50:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:55
(1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
16:23
(3:17 / km)
Total:
50:14
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 37.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 3 / 9 |
POL
|
+33 s
+60 s
|
G2 / G2
correct
|
17:24
17:30
|
50:42 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 3
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -6
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -26.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen,
32 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.12 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.4 s
Gap behind:
2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.05 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
25 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.35 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:29
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
17:24
(3:29 / km)
Total:
50:42
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 12.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 4 / 11 |
SUI
|
+39 s
+17 s
|
G2 / G1
|
17:31
18:22
|
50:49 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 4
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -7
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen,
49 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.38 %,
Sicherheit 99 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.5 s
Gap behind:
0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.11 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen,
9 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.97 %,
Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 50:49
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:35
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
17:31
(3:30 / km)
Total:
50:49
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 18.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 5 / 41 |
GER
|
+44 s
+70 s
|
G2 / G4
|
18:10
18:33
|
51:28 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 5
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -36
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: -26.2 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
20 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.74 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.4 s
Gap behind:
0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
20 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.07 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:28
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:40
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
18:10
(3:38 / km)
Total:
51:28
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 22.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 6 / 55 |
POL
|
+38 s
+97 s
|
G2 / G8
|
18:15
18:29
|
51:33 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 6
80% range: 4–18
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 55
Deviation: -49
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +97 s
Fehler: -59.1 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
24 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.09 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.8 s
Gap behind:
0.7 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.10 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
24 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.06 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:33
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:34
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
18:15
(3:39 / km)
Total:
51:33
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 17 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 7 / 13 |
SWE
|
+14 s
+16 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
18:51
18:32
|
51:43 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 7
80% range: 4–16
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -6
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen,
40 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.13 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.98 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen,
36 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.28 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:10
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
18:51
(3:46 / km)
Total:
51:43
|
| 8 / 7 |
HUN
|
+15 s
+8 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
18:51
18:13
|
51:43 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 8
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen,
127 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.11 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.7 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen,
65 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.15 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 51:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:11
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
18:51
(3:46 / km)
Total:
51:43
|
| 9 / 15 |
ITA
|
+40 s
+54 s
|
G2 / G2
correct
|
18:27
17:58
|
51:45 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 9
80% range: 5–22
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -6
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -14.1 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen,
73 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.29 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.8 s
Gap behind:
0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.01 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen,
24 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.32 %,
Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:36
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
18:27
(3:41 / km)
Total:
51:45
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 19 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 10 / 3 |
ISR
|
+41 s
+12 s
|
G2 / G1
|
18:29
17:30
|
51:47 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 10
80% range: 6–22
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 29.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen,
12 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.70 %,
Sicherheit 32 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.3 s
Gap behind:
0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.17 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen,
12 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.02 %,
Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:59 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 51:47
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:37
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
18:29
(3:42 / km)
Total:
51:47
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 20.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 11 / 50 |
HUN
|
+43 s
+96 s
|
G2 / G6
|
18:41
19:59
|
51:59 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 11
80% range: 6–23
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -39
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: -52.6 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen,
67 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.31 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
0.4 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.61 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen,
63 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.17 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:00 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 51:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:39
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
18:41
(3:44 / km)
Total:
51:59
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 22.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 12 / 12 |
HUN
|
+15 s
+17 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
19:10
18:20
|
52:02 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 12
80% range: 7–17
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen,
128 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.07 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.11 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
93 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.09 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 52:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:11
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
19:10
(3:50 / km)
Total:
52:02
|
| 13 / 16 |
HUN
|
+14 s
+8 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
19:12
18:43
|
52:04 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 13
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen,
79 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.05 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.0 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.86 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen,
55 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.38 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:10
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
19:12
(3:50 / km)
Total:
52:04
|
| 14 / 22 |
GER
|
+60 s
+36 s
|
G3 / G2
|
18:16
18:21
|
52:07 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 14
80% range: 9–27
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -8
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:56
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 23.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen,
3 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.48 %,
Sicherheit 21 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.4 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.84 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen,
3 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.00 %,
Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:07
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming:
10:56
(1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
18:16
(3:39 / km)
Total:
52:07
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 37.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 15 / 32 |
GER
|
+40 s
+22 s
|
G2 / G2
correct
|
19:01
19:20
|
52:19 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 15
80% range: 10–25
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -17
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 17.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen,
3 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.48 %,
Sicherheit 21 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.0 s
Gap behind:
1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.33 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen,
3 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.00 %,
Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:19
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
10:36
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
19:01
(3:48 / km)
Total:
52:19
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 17.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 16 / 14 |
FRA
|
+62 s
+55 s
|
G3 / G2
|
18:30
17:55
|
52:21 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 16
80% range: 11–37
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:58
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
37 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.47 %,
Sicherheit 61 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.7 s
Gap behind:
0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.24 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen,
6 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.29 %,
Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 52:21
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:58
(1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
18:30
(3:42 / km)
Total:
52:21
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 41.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 17 / 25 |
GER
|
+36 s
+3 s
|
G2 / G1
|
19:08
19:26
|
52:26 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 17
80% range: 10–25
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -8
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 32.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen,
3 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.48 %,
Sicherheit 21 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
2.7 s
Gap behind:
0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen,
3 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.00 %,
Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:26
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
10:32
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
19:08
(3:50 / km)
Total:
52:26
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 13.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 18 / 45 |
HUN
|
+42 s
+55 s
|
G2 / G4
|
19:08
19:15
|
52:26 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 18
80% range: 10–30
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -27
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -13.0 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen,
49 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.13 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.2 s
Gap behind:
1.1 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.07 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen,
49 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.06 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:26
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:38
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
19:08
(3:50 / km)
Total:
52:26
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 21 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 19 / 4 |
HUN
|
+31 s
+9 s
|
G2 / G1
|
19:09
17:45
|
52:27 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 19
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 15
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 21.9 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen,
84 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.11 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen,
63 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.03 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 52:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:27
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
19:09
(3:50 / km)
Total:
52:27
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 20 / 31 |
FIN
|
+56 s
+57 s
|
G3 / G2
|
18:41
19:11
|
52:32 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 20
80% range: 13–29
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -11
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -1.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
31 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.36 %,
Sicherheit 20 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
2.1 s
Gap behind:
0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.17 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen,
10 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.00 %,
Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:52
(1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
18:41
(3:44 / km)
Total:
52:32
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 33.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 21 / 19 |
HUN
|
+42 s
+37 s
|
G2 / G2
correct
|
19:18
18:09
|
52:36 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 21
80% range: 15–30
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 4.8 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen,
77 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.04 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.6 s
Gap behind:
0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen,
73 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.48 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 52:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:38
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
19:18
(3:52 / km)
Total:
52:36
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 20.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 22 / 17 |
SUI
|
+16 s
+21 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
19:47
18:51
|
52:39 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 22
80% range: 15–28
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 5
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -4.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen,
130 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.38 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.1 s
Gap behind:
2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.15 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:47 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen,
66 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.16 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 52:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:12
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
19:47
(3:57 / km)
Total:
52:39
|
| 23 / 20 |
AUT
|
+14 s
+16 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
19:53
19:00
|
52:45 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 23
80% range: 14–30
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -2.2 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen,
152 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.88 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.4 s
Gap behind:
0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.05 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen,
93 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.00 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 52:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:10
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
19:53
(3:59 / km)
Total:
52:45
|
| 24 / 39 |
HUN
|
+16 s
+3 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
19:54
20:58
|
52:46 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 24
80% range: 17–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -15
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen,
39 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.42 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.9 s
Gap behind:
0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen,
39 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.30 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:58 (4:12 / km)
Error: −1:04 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 52:46
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:12
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
19:54
(3:59 / km)
Total:
52:46
|
| 25 / 8 |
HUN
|
+62 s
+52 s
|
G3 / G2
|
19:02
17:34
|
52:53 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 25
80% range: 15–40
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 17
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:58
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 10.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen,
44 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.12 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.2 s
Gap behind:
12.0 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.17 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen,
44 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.42 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: +1:28 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 52:53
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:58
(1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
19:02
(3:48 / km)
Total:
52:53
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 41.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 26 / 6 |
ITA
|
+39 s
+16 s
|
G2 / G1
|
19:37
18:06
|
52:55 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 26
80% range: 9–38
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 20
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 22.6 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
31 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.71 %,
Sicherheit 47 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.7 s
Gap behind:
0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.15 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen,
7 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.64 %,
Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Error: +1:31 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 52:55
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:35
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
19:37
(3:55 / km)
Total:
52:55
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 17.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 27 / 47 |
BUL
|
+50 s
+65 s
|
G3 / G5
|
19:06
19:13
|
52:57 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 27
80% range: 16–39
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -20
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -14.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
14 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.92 %,
Sicherheit 17 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
6.4 s
Gap behind:
3.2 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.40 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
14 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.79 %,
Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:57
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:46
(1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
19:06
(3:49 / km)
Total:
52:57
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 29.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 28 / 18 |
FRA
|
+57 s
+6 s
|
G3 / G1
|
19:12
18:53
|
53:03 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 28
80% range: 24–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 10
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:53
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 51.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
15 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.59 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.7 s
Gap behind:
1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.19 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
15 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.15 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:03
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
10:53
(1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
19:12
(3:50 / km)
Total:
53:03
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 36.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 29 / 44 |
HUN
|
+10 s
+23 s
|
G1 / G2
|
20:12
21:01
|
53:04 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 29
80% range: 21–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -15
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -13.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
22 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.46 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
3.0 s
Gap behind:
3.4 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.26 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:12 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
22 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.21 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:01 (4:12 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 53:04
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
10:06
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
20:12
(4:02 / km)
Total:
53:04
|
| 30 / 2 |
ITA
|
+13 s
+2 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
20:22
17:25
|
53:14 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 30
80% range: 23–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 28
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 11.4 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen,
67 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.46 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
3.4 s
Gap behind:
0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
17 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.44 %,
Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Error: +2:57 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 53:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:09
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
20:22
(4:04 / km)
Total:
53:14
|
| 31 / 26 |
HUN
|
+60 s
+64 s
|
G3 / G2
|
19:25
18:32
|
53:16 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 31
80% range: 18–41
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 5
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:56
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -3.8 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen,
64 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.43 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.34 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen,
64 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.44 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 53:16
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:56
(1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
19:25
(3:53 / km)
Total:
53:16
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 39.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 32 / 24 |
HUN
|
+61 s
+56 s
|
G3 / G2
|
19:35
18:25
|
53:26 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 32
80% range: 21–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 8
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:57
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen,
35 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.15 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.1 s
Gap behind:
0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.13 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen,
35 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.23 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: +1:10 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 53:26
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:57
(1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
19:35
(3:55 / km)
Total:
53:26
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 40.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 33 / 36 |
AUT
|
+44 s
+55 s
|
G2 / G2
correct
|
20:14
19:36
|
53:32 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 33
80% range: 23–41
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -11.0 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen,
92 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.73 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.2 s
Gap behind:
6.4 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.94 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:14 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen,
50 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.02 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:36 (3:55 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 53:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:40
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
20:14
(4:03 / km)
Total:
53:32
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 23.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 34 / 40 |
BUL
|
+32 s
+30 s
|
G2 / G3
|
20:25
20:09
|
53:43 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 34
80% range: 27–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -6
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 1.8 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen,
39 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.99 %,
Sicherheit 23 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.9 s
Gap behind:
1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:25 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
12 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.19 %,
Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 53:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:28
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
20:25
(4:05 / km)
Total:
53:43
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 35 / 35 |
NOR
|
+19 s
+27 s
|
G1 / G2
|
20:52
19:34
|
53:44 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 35
80% range: 30–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -7.8 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen,
74 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.80 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
0.2 s
Gap behind:
7.0 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.28 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:52 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen,
22 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.65 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 53:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:15
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
20:52
(4:10 / km)
Total:
53:44
|
| 36 / 29 |
HUN
|
+7 s
+0 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
21:03
19:54
|
53:55 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 36
80% range: 31–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 7
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen,
52 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.58 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h
Running and totalRun: 21:03 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
22 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.02 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 53:55
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:03
(1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:33
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
21:03
(4:13 / km)
Total:
53:55
|
| 37 / 38 |
ITA
|
+88 s
+72 s
|
G4 / G4
correct
|
17:54
17:55
|
53:58 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 37
80% range: 16–36
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +88 s
Time: 11:24
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 15.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen,
42 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.47 %,
Sicherheit 53 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
5.6 s
Gap behind:
15.2 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen,
4 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.48 %,
Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 53:58
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:24
(1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:06
(35.1 km/h)
Run:
17:54
(3:35 / km)
Total:
53:58
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 66.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 38 / 27 |
SUI
|
+36 s
+61 s
|
G2 / G2
correct
|
20:45
18:44
|
54:03 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 38
80% range: 30–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 11
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -24.9 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen,
29 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.51 %,
Sicherheit 45 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.1 s
Gap behind:
1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.98 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
18 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.88 %,
Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Error: +2:01 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 54:03
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:32
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
20:45
(4:09 / km)
Total:
54:03
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 15.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 39 / 34 |
EST
|
+26 s
+32 s
|
G2 / G2
correct
|
20:48
19:40
|
54:06 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 39
80% range: 30–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: 5
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -5.8 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen,
75 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.11 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
7.0 s
Gap behind:
4.4 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.53 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:48 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen,
59 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.03 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 54:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:22
(1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
20:48
(4:10 / km)
Total:
54:06
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 5.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 40 / 51 |
GER
|
+43 s
+78 s
|
G2 / G5
|
20:58
20:28
|
54:16 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 40
80% range: 37–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -11
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: -34.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
15 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.59 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.1 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:58 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
15 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.15 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 54:16
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
10:39
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
20:58
(4:12 / km)
Total:
54:16
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 22.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 41 / 43 |
HUN
|
+31 s
+38 s
|
G2 / G2
correct
|
21:17
21:03
|
54:35 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 41
80% range: 36–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen,
53 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.43 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
4.4 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.61 km/h
Running and totalRun: 21:17 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen,
53 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.44 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:03 (4:13 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 54:35
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:27
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
21:17
(4:15 / km)
Total:
54:35
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 42 / 30 |
CZE
|
+56 s
+18 s
|
G3 / G1
|
21:30
20:01
|
55:21 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 42
80% range: 42–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 12
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 38.3 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen,
47 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.07 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.6 s
Gap behind:
0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.36 km/h
Running and totalRun: 21:30 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen,
47 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.14 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:01 (4:00 / km)
Error: +1:29 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 55:21
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:52
(1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
21:30
(4:18 / km)
Total:
55:21
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 35.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 43 / 23 |
ITA
|
+75 s
+58 s
|
G4 / G2
|
19:25
18:23
|
55:29 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 43
80% range: 28–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 20
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 11:11
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 16.6 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen,
68 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.72 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
3.3 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.82 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen,
29 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.10 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: +1:02 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 55:29
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:11
(1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:06
(35.1 km/h)
Run:
19:25
(3:53 / km)
Total:
55:29
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 53.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 44 / 52 |
POL
|
+54 s
+95 s
|
G3 / G6
|
22:03
20:59
|
55:54 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 44
80% range: 41–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -8
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:50
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +95 s
Fehler: -41.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen,
7 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.13 %,
Sicherheit 12 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
3.2 s
Gap behind:
2.1 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h
Running and totalRun: 22:03 (4:25 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen,
7 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.53 %,
Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:59 (4:12 / km)
Error: +1:04 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 55:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:50
(1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:48
(36.6 km/h)
Run:
22:03
(4:25 / km)
Total:
55:54
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 32.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 45 / 49 |
CRO
|
+116 s
+96 s
|
G4 / G6
|
20:17
19:54
|
56:21 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 45
80% range: 44–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -4
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +116 s
Time: 11:52
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
25 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.47 %,
Sicherheit 45 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
12.9 s
Gap behind:
2.0 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:17 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen,
2 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.06 %,
Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 56:21
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
11:52
(1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:06
(35.1 km/h)
Run:
20:17
(4:03 / km)
Total:
56:21
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 94.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 46 / 53 |
CZE
|
+74 s
+75 s
|
G4 / G5
|
20:29
21:55
|
56:33 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 46
80% range: 31–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -7
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 11:10
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: -0.8 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
14 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.90 %,
Sicherheit 37 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
12.0 s
Gap behind:
0.1 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.16 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:29 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
14 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.02 %,
Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:55 (4:23 / km)
Error: −1:26 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 56:33
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:10
(1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:06
(35.1 km/h)
Run:
20:29
(4:06 / km)
Total:
56:33
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 53.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 47 / 28 |
ITA
|
+118 s
+53 s
|
G4 / G2
|
20:41
18:56
|
56:45 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 47
80% range: 45–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 19
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +118 s
Time: 11:54
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 64.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen,
22 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.47 %,
Sicherheit 39 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
2.0 s
Gap behind:
0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.61 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:41 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Error: +1:45 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 56:45
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:54
(1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:06
(35.1 km/h)
Run:
20:41
(4:08 / km)
Total:
56:45
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 96.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 48 / 37 |
ITA
|
+118 s
+96 s
|
G4 / G6
|
20:53
16:55
|
56:57 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 48
80% range: 45–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 11
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +118 s
Time: 11:54
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: 21.8 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen,
6 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.15 %,
Sicherheit 6 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.0 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.10 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:53 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen,
6 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.47 %,
Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Error: +3:58 / +0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 56:57
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:54
(1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:06
(35.1 km/h)
Run:
20:53
(4:11 / km)
Total:
56:57
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 96.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 49 / 33 |
ITA
|
+103 s
+51 s
|
G4 / G2
|
21:01
19:27
|
57:05 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 49
80% range: 45–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 16
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 11:39
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 51.9 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen,
32 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.47 %,
Sicherheit 46 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
15.2 s
Gap behind:
12.9 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.57 km/h
Running and totalRun: 21:01 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen,
10 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.06 %,
Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Error: +1:34 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 57:05
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:39
(1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:06
(35.1 km/h)
Run:
21:01
(4:12 / km)
Total:
57:05
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 82 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 50 / 46 |
CZE
|
+74 s
+77 s
|
G4 / G4
correct
|
21:33
19:37
|
57:37 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 50
80% range: 46–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: 4
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 11:10
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
26 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.74 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.1 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.85 km/h
Running and totalRun: 21:33 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
26 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.43 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Error: +1:56 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 57:37
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming:
11:10
(1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:06
(35.1 km/h)
Run:
21:33
(4:19 / km)
Total:
57:37
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 53.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 51 / 54 |
AUT
|
+36 s
+64 s
|
G2 / G5
|
24:46
22:38
|
58:04 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 51
80% range: 50–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 54
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -28.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
14 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.58 %,
Sicherheit 88 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.1 s
Gap behind:
0.1 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h
Running and totalRun: 24:46 (4:57 / km)
Historical basis: 4:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
14 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.13 %,
Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:38 (4:32 / km)
Error: +2:08 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 58:04
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming:
10:32
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:34
(36.8 km/h)
Run:
24:46
(4:57 / km)
Total:
58:04
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 15.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 52 / 56 |
HUN
|
+78 s
+97 s
|
G4 / G7
|
22:01
22:23
|
58:05 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 52
80% range: 49–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 56
Deviation: -4
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 11:14
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +97 s
Fehler: -19.1 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen,
23 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.68 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
3.3 s
Gap behind:
4.2 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.75 km/h
Running and totalRun: 22:01 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen,
23 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.40 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:23 (4:29 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 58:05
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
11:14
(1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:06
(35.1 km/h)
Run:
22:01
(4:24 / km)
Total:
58:05
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 57 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 53 / 48 |
CZE
|
+82 s
+71 s
|
G4 / G5
|
22:18
19:48
|
58:22 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 53
80% range: 50–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: 5
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 11:18
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
17 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.61 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
4.2 s
Gap behind:
5.6 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.18 km/h
Running and totalRun: 22:18 (4:28 / km)
Historical basis: 4:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
17 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.16 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Error: +2:30 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 58:22
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
11:18
(1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:06
(35.1 km/h)
Run:
22:18
(4:28 / km)
Total:
58:22
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 61.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 0 / 10 |
USA
|
+0 s
+68 s
|
G0 / G2
|
17:34
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 54–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
9:56
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 21 |
FRA
|
+0 s
+52 s
|
G0 / G2
|
18:08
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 55–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
9:56
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 42 |
AUT
|
+0 s
+46 s
|
G0 / G2
|
20:27
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 56–56
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:27 (4:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
9:56
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|