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PTS2 Women

14.06.2025 Besancon FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Para Championships Besancon

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 40.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error65.1 s
Mean bike-speed error1.58 km/h
Correct bike groups1/4
No history1
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Details
1 / 2 Neele Ludwig
GER
+83 s
+184 s
G2 / G2
correct 		27:33
31:55
 1:16:16
Show details
Prediction details: Neele Ludwig

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +83 s
Time: 13:35
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +184 s
Fehler: -100.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 27.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 83.1 s
Gap behind: 127.2 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:33 (5:31 / km)
Historical basis: 5:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:55 (6:23 / km)
Error: −4:22 / −0:52 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:16
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:35 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:19 (27.6 km/h)
Run: 27:33 (5:31 / km)
Total: 1:16:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:04
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
About 31.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +51.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Sanne Koopman
NED
+210 s
+144 s
G3 / G4
 28:34
34:00
 1:19:43
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Prediction details: Sanne Koopman

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +210 s
Time: 15:42
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +144 s
Fehler: 66.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.97 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 127.2 s
Gap behind: 80.4 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 26.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:34 (5:43 / km)
Historical basis: 5:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:00 (6:48 / km)
Error: −5:26 / −1:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:43
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:42 (2:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 47:39 (27.4 km/h)
Run: 28:34 (5:43 / km)
Total: 1:19:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:44
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
About 178.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Martina Abaterusso
ITA
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 35:13
45:22
 1:23:24
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Prediction details: Martina Abaterusso

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:12
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 27.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 83.1 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 25.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:13 (7:03 / km)
Historical basis: 7:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:22 (9:04 / km)
Error: −10:09 / −2:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:24
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:12 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 48:11 (27.1 km/h)
Run: 35:13 (7:03 / km)
Total: 1:23:24
4 / 5 Liina Nuoranne
FIN
+291 s
+384 s
G4 / G5
 31:52
38:11
 1:29:02
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Prediction details: Liina Nuoranne

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +291 s
Time: 17:03
Pace: 2:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +384 s
Fehler: -93.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.93 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 80.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 21.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:52 (6:22 / km)
Historical basis: 6:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:11 (7:38 / km)
Error: −6:19 / −1:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:02
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 17:03 (2:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:19 (25.0 km/h)
Run: 31:52 (6:22 / km)
Total: 1:29:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:16
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
About 286.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Gitte Welslau
BEL
+0 s
+144 s
G0 / G1
32:12
Show details
Prediction details: Gitte Welslau

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:12
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +144 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 28.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:12 (6:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 12:12 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.