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PTS5 Men

14.06.2025 Besancon FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Para Championships Besancon

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 64/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 87.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error43.1 s
Mean bike-speed error1.48 km/h
Correct bike groups0/8
No history0
Within the 80% range75.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Martin Schulz
GER
+48 s
+20 s
G2 / G1
 16:39
18:03
 49:53
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Schulz

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 27.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 44.9 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: −1:24 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 49:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:29 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Total: 49:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:21
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 8.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +39.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Filipe Marques
POR
+3 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 16:51
18:34
 49:57
Show details
Prediction details: Filipe Marques

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 44.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:43 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 49:57
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:03 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Total: 49:57
3 / 5 Ugurcan Ozer
TUR
+54 s
+36 s
G3 / G4
 17:26
19:42
 52:03
Show details
Prediction details: Ugurcan Ozer

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 11:35
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 18.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 16.9 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:42 (3:56 / km)
Error: −2:16 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 52:03
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:35 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:43 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 52:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
About 2.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +51.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6 Michael Salisbury
GBR
+103 s
+151 s
G6 / G5
 16:12
20:19
 52:12
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Salisbury

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 12:24
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +151 s
Fehler: -47.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.30 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 22.4 s
Gap behind: 118.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:19 (4:04 / km)
Error: −4:07 / −0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 52:12
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 12:24 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:17 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Total: 52:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 96.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Tom Williamson
IRL
+53 s
+3 s
G3 / G1
 17:50
20:49
 52:27
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Williamson

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 11:34
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 50.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.30 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:49 (4:10 / km)
Error: −2:59 / −0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 52:27
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:34 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:43 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Total: 52:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
About 1.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +51.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4 Aleksandr Konyshev
AIN
+81 s
+44 s
G5 / G3
 17:12
19:08
 53:03
Show details
Prediction details: Aleksandr Konyshev

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 12:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 36.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 9.8 s
Gap behind: 22.4 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Error: −1:56 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 53:03
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 12:02 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:30 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Total: 53:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 73.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Andreas Doulappas
CYP
+71 s
+161 s
G4 / G6
 21:50
21:49
 56:58
Show details
Prediction details: Andreas Doulappas

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 11:52
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +161 s
Fehler: -90.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.78 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 16.9 s
Gap behind: 9.8 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:50 (4:22 / km)
Historical basis: 4:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.08 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:49 (4:22 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 56:58
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:52 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:57 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 21:50 (4:22 / km)
Total: 56:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 64.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8 Ernestas Cesonis
LTU
+222 s
+151 s
G7 / G6
 18:35
22:27
 57:02
Show details
Prediction details: Ernestas Cesonis

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +222 s
Time: 14:23
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +151 s
Fehler: 71.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.94 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 118.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:27 (4:29 / km)
Error: −3:52 / −0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 57:02
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:23 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:45 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Total: 57:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 215.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.