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U23 Women

19.07.2025 Melilla ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Sprint and Relay Championships Melilla

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.07.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 66/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 92.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.2
Mean swim error10.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.53 km/h
Correct bike groups7/28
No history0
Within the 80% range42.9 %
Details
1 / 15 Clara Carlquist
DEN
+55 s
+23 s
G4 / G2
 13:03
19:17
 46:12
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Carlquist

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 31.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -2.15 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 22.9 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:03 (2:37 / km)
Historical basis: 2:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Error: −6:14 / −1:15 / km
Overall prediction: 46:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 13:03 (2:37 / km)
Total: 46:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 39.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1 Franka Rust
GER
+25 s
+24 s
G2 / G1
 16:33
17:00
 46:30
Show details
Prediction details: Franka Rust

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 0.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 46:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 20 María Teresa Jiménez-Orta Guerrero
ESP
+12 s
+22 s
G1 / G4
 16:59
18:52
 46:32
Show details
Prediction details: María Teresa Jiménez-Orta Guerrero

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -10.4 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:53 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 46:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:22 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Total: 46:32
4 / 3 Candice Denizot
FRA
+9 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:11
17:55
 46:44
Show details
Prediction details: Candice Denizot

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 8.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 46:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:22 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Total: 46:44
5 / 5 Robin Dreijling
NED
+16 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 17:16
18:05
 47:13
Show details
Prediction details: Robin Dreijling

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -13.1 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 47:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 47:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 0.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 2 Zuzana Michalickova
SVK
+17 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 17:18
17:19
 47:15
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Michalickova

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 13.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 47:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 16 Millie Breese
GBR
+23 s
+13 s
G2 / G3
 17:20
19:15
 47:17
Show details
Prediction details: Millie Breese

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Error: −1:55 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 47:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 10 Heidi Juránková
CZE
+19 s
+26 s
G2 / G3
 17:22
17:55
 47:19
Show details
Prediction details: Heidi Juránková

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -6.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 47:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 3.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 4 Márta Kropkó
HUN
+6 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:46
17:53
 47:19
Show details
Prediction details: Márta Kropkó

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:22 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Total: 47:19
10 / 17 Livia Wespe
SUI
+43 s
+43 s
G3 / G4
 16:59
18:39
 47:46
Show details
Prediction details: Livia Wespe

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 3–20
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 0.2 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:39 (3:44 / km)
Error: −1:40 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 47:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:03 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Total: 47:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 27.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 21 Dominika Peszleg
HUN
+43 s
+31 s
G3 / G4
 17:02
19:44
 47:49
Show details
Prediction details: Dominika Peszleg

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–18
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 11.9 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Error: −2:42 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 47:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:03 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 47:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 27.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 6 Barbara De Koning
NED
+21 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:53
17:54
 47:50
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 11.4 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 47:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Total: 47:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 5.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 9 Alejandra Seguí Soria
ESP
+45 s
+32 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:07
17:50
 47:54
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandra Seguí Soria

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–19
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 12.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 96 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 47:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:03 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 47:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 29.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 7 Angelica Prestia
ITA
+16 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:00
17:57
 47:57
Show details
Prediction details: Angelica Prestia

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 3–20
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -5.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 47:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 19 Rhune Vansteenkiste
BEL
+19 s
+23 s
G2 / G3
 18:10
19:40
 48:07
Show details
Prediction details: Rhune Vansteenkiste

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -4.5 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.43 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Error: −1:30 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 48:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 48:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 11 Rebecca Beti
SUI
+31 s
+45 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:23
18:19
 48:10
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Beti

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -13.8 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.85 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:56 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 48:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:03 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Total: 48:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 15.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 12 Isabella Hayes
GBR
+6 s
+12 s
G1 / G2
 18:54
18:55
 48:27
Show details
Prediction details: Isabella Hayes

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–18
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 48:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:22 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Total: 48:27
18 / 22 Dana Prikrylova
CZE
+27 s
+27 s
G2 / G4
 18:51
19:56
 48:48
Show details
Prediction details: Dana Prikrylova

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–22
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:56 (3:59 / km)
Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 48:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Total: 48:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 11.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 8 María Casals Mojica
ESP
+42 s
+27 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:20
17:41
 49:07
Show details
Prediction details: María Casals Mojica

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 17–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 14.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:03 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Total: 49:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 26.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 18 Aniek Mars
NED
+44 s
+33 s
G3 / G4
 18:29
18:51
 49:16
Show details
Prediction details: Aniek Mars

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–24
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 11.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:03 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Total: 49:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 28.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 14 Nele Dequae
BEL
+35 s
+27 s
G3 / G2
 18:57
19:14
 49:44
Show details
Prediction details: Nele Dequae

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 16–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 7.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:03 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Total: 49:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 19.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 23 Matilde Silva Santos
POR
+36 s
+30 s
G3 / G4
 19:08
20:20
 49:55
Show details
Prediction details: Matilde Silva Santos

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 6.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:20 (4:04 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 49:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:03 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Total: 49:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 13 Tabea Huys
AUT
+8 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 20:27
19:08
 50:00
Show details
Prediction details: Tabea Huys

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 15–26
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -12.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:27 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -1.83 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Error: +1:19 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 50:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:22 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 20:27 (4:05 / km)
Total: 50:00
24 / 25 Grete Maria Savitsch
EST
+26 s
+42 s
G2 / G5
 20:17
20:46
 50:14
Show details
Prediction details: Grete Maria Savitsch

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 21–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -16.1 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:17 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 1.91 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 50:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:30 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 20:17 (4:03 / km)
Total: 50:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 27 Alma Bergqvist
SWE
+51 s
+57 s
G4 / G6
 18:34
20:26
 51:43
Show details
Prediction details: Alma Bergqvist

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 19–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -6.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.94 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Error: −1:52 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 51:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Total: 51:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 35 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 28 Margarida Barao
POR
+78 s
+47 s
G4 / G7
 19:18
20:39
 52:27
Show details
Prediction details: Margarida Barao

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 23–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 30.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -2.29 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:39 (4:08 / km)
Error: −1:21 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 52:27
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Total: 52:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 62.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 26 Iva Pavlovic
SRB
+50 s
+43 s
G4 / G5
 20:40
21:37
 53:49
Show details
Prediction details: Iva Pavlovic

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 25–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:40 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:37 (4:19 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 53:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 20:40 (4:08 / km)
Total: 53:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 34.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 24 Józefina Młynarska
POL
+31 s
+45 s
G3 / G5
 34:45
20:06
 1:05:32
Show details
Prediction details: Józefina Młynarska

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -14.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:45 (6:57 / km)
Historical basis: 7:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 (4:01 / km)
Error: +14:39 / +2:56 / km
Overall prediction: 1:05:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:03 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 34:45 (6:57 / km)
Total: 1:05:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 15.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.