Prediction comparison

Elite Women

09.08.2025 Great Square CZE

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Europe Triathlon XTERRA Cross Championships Prachatice

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 09.08.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 47/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 53.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 76.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.8

Mean swim error94.9 s

Mean bike-speed error12.47 km/h

Correct bike groups0/12

No history1

Within the 80% range23.1 %

						Details
1 / 3	Aneta Grabmuller Soldati CZE	+17 s +38 s	G2 / G1	43:34 58:08	1:30:34	Show details Prediction details: Aneta Grabmuller Soldati Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 20:38 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: -21.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.01 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 17.0 s Gap behind: 11.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 20.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 20.42 km/h Running and total Run: 43:34 (4:08 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 58:08 (5:31 / km) Error: −14:34 / −1:23 / km Overall prediction: 1:30:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:38 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 46:43 (40.5 km/h) Run: 43:34 (4:08 / km) Total: 1:30:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 13.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1	Barbara Riveros CHI	+42 s +43 s	G3 / G2	41:19 52:54	1:32:14	Show details Prediction details: Barbara Riveros Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 21:03 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -1.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.0 s Gap behind: 21.2 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 19.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 17.76 km/h Running and total Run: 41:19 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.67 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 52:54 (5:01 / km) Error: −11:35 / −1:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:03 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 50:13 (37.5 km/h) Run: 41:19 (3:55 / km) Total: 1:32:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 38.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 8	Isla Hedley GBR	+28 s +0 s	G3 / G5	47:41 1:01:11	1:38:36	Show details Prediction details: Isla Hedley Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 20:49 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 28.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.0 s Gap behind: 14.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 18.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 19.14 km/h Running and total Run: 47:41 (4:31 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 1:01:11 (5:48 / km) Error: −13:30 / −1:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:36 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:49 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 50:13 (37.5 km/h) Run: 47:41 (4:31 / km) Total: 1:38:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 24.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6	Romy Spoelder NED	+63 s +161 s	G4 / G3	40:39 1:00:57	1:39:35	Show details Prediction details: Romy Spoelder Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: 21:24 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +161 s Fehler: -97.8 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 21.2 s Gap behind: 6.0 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 19.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 13.01 km/h Running and total Run: 40:39 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 1:00:57 (5:47 / km) Error: −20:18 / −1:56 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:24 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:28 (32.7 km/h) Run: 40:39 (3:51 / km) Total: 1:39:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 59.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2	Marta Menditto ITA	+88 s +230 s	G4 / G3	46:00 53:22	1:44:56	Show details Prediction details: Marta Menditto Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +88 s Time: 21:49 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +230 s Fehler: -142.4 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.4 s Gap behind: 38.7 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 19.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 12.77 km/h Running and total Run: 46:00 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 53:22 (5:04 / km) Error: −7:22 / −0:42 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:49 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:28 (32.7 km/h) Run: 46:00 (4:22 / km) Total: 1:44:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 83.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 10	Emma Ducreux FRA	+69 s +90 s	G4 / G3	50:19 1:06:59	1:49:15	Show details Prediction details: Emma Ducreux Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +69 s Time: 21:30 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +90 s Fehler: -20.8 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.0 s Gap behind: 18.4 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 19.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 13.28 km/h Running and total Run: 50:19 (4:46 / km) Historical basis: 4:48 / km Best comparable pace: 4:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 1:06:59 (6:21 / km) Error: −16:40 / −1:35 / km Overall prediction: 1:49:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:30 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:28 (32.7 km/h) Run: 50:19 (4:46 / km) Total: 1:49:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 65.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 9	Margareta Bicanova SVK	+126 s +72 s	G5 / G9	45:36 56:24	2:03:00	Show details Prediction details: Margareta Bicanova Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +126 s Time: 22:27 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +72 s Fehler: 54.3 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 38.7 s Gap behind: 18.6 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 17.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.43 km/h Running and total Run: 45:36 (4:20 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.39 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 56:24 (5:21 / km) Error: −10:48 / −1:02 / km Overall prediction: 2:03:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:27 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:17 (25.1 km/h) Run: 45:36 (4:20 / km) Total: 2:03:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 122.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 4	Kerri-Ann Upham GBR	+158 s +335 s	G7 / G4	51:52 55:28	2:10:06	Show details Prediction details: Kerri-Ann Upham Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 9–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +158 s Time: 22:59 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +335 s Fehler: -177.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.0 s Gap behind: 31.5 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 20.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.03 km/h Running and total Run: 51:52 (4:55 / km) Historical basis: 4:53 / km Best comparable pace: 4:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 55:28 (5:16 / km) Error: −3:36 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 2:10:06 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:59 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:05 (25.0 km/h) Run: 51:52 (4:55 / km) Total: 2:10:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 154 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 12	Stepanka Bisova CZE	+256 s +331 s	G8 / G7	52:21 1:04:22	2:12:13	Show details Prediction details: Stepanka Bisova Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 9–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 12 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +256 s Time: 24:37 Pace: 1:38 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +331 s Fehler: -74.9 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 31 % Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 66.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 18.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.08 km/h Running and total Run: 52:21 (4:58 / km) Historical basis: 5:00 / km Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 1:04:22 (6:06 / km) Error: −12:01 / −1:08 / km Overall prediction: 2:12:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 24:37 (1:38 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:36 (25.0 km/h) Run: 52:21 (4:58 / km) Total: 2:12:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 252.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 7	Carina Wasle AUT	+145 s +268 s	G6 / G8	1:16:12 54:53	2:34:13	Show details Prediction details: Carina Wasle Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 11–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +145 s Time: 22:46 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +268 s Fehler: -123.1 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.6 s Gap behind: 13.0 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 18.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.35 km/h Running and total Run: 1:16:12 (7:14 / km) Historical basis: 7:25 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 54:53 (5:12 / km) Error: +21:19 / +2:01 / km Overall prediction: 2:34:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:46 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:36 (25.0 km/h) Run: 1:16:12 (7:14 / km) Total: 2:34:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 141 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 5	Noemi Bogiatto ITA	+189 s +307 s	G7 / G6	1:16:08 54:18	2:34:22	Show details Prediction details: Noemi Bogiatto Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 11–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +189 s Time: 23:30 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +307 s Fehler: -117.6 s Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 31.5 s Gap behind: 66.7 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 19.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.79 km/h Running and total Run: 1:16:08 (7:13 / km) Historical basis: 7:13 / km Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 54:18 (5:09 / km) Error: +21:50 / +2:04 / km Overall prediction: 2:34:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 23:30 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:05 (25.0 km/h) Run: 1:16:08 (7:13 / km) Total: 2:34:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 185.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11	Lorena Erl GER	+0 s +281 s	G1 / G10	58:49		Show details Prediction details: Lorena Erl Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 20:21 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +281 s Fehler: -281.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 17.0 s Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 17.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 22.52 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 58:49 (5:35 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:21 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 46:43 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 13	Barbora Stupková CZE	+0 s +329 s	G0 / G11	1:06:37		Show details Prediction details: Barbora Stupková Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 13–13 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 20:21 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +329 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 11 (1 people) Speed: 17.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:06:37 (6:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 20:21 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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