Prediction comparison

Semifinal 1 Youth Men

12.09.2025 Kitzbühel AUT

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Europe Triathlon Youth Championships Kitzbuhel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 46/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 51.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 72.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.7

Mean swim error37.3 s

Mean bike-speed error2.10 km/h

Correct bike groups6/22

No history7

Within the 80% range24.1 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 11	András Deli HUN	+13 s +11 s	G1 / G3	9:16 10:29	25:45	Show details Prediction details: András Deli Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 6:19 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 2.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.61 km/h Running and total Run: 9:16 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:29 (3:30 / km) Error: −1:13 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 25:45 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:11 (41.5 km/h) Run: 9:16 (3:05 / km) Total: 25:45
2 / 4	Ricardo Pissarra POR	+17 s +0 s	G1 / G2	9:33 10:24	26:02	Show details Prediction details: Ricardo Pissarra Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 6:23 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 17.4 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 65 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 5.6 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.43 km/h Running and total Run: 9:33 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:24 (3:28 / km) Error: −0:51 / −0:17 / km Overall prediction: 26:02 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:23 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:11 (41.5 km/h) Run: 9:33 (3:11 / km) Total: 26:02
3 / 18	Paul Weiß AUT	+14 s +14 s	G1 / G3	9:53 11:19	26:22	Show details Prediction details: Paul Weiß Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 18 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 6:20 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: -0.3 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 53 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.50 km/h Running and total Run: 9:53 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.49 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:19 (3:46 / km) Error: −1:26 / −0:29 / km Overall prediction: 26:22 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:20 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:11 (41.5 km/h) Run: 9:53 (3:18 / km) Total: 26:22
4 / 6	Alessandro Villa ITA	+53 s +28 s	G4 / G3	9:12 10:05	27:06	Show details Prediction details: Alessandro Villa Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 6:59 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 24.5 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.23 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.7 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.92 km/h Running and total Run: 9:12 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:05 (3:22 / km) Error: −0:53 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 27:06 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 6:59 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:56 (39.4 km/h) Run: 9:12 (3:04 / km) Total: 27:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:28 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 31.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 12	Rube Claus BEL	+58 s +34 s	G4 / G4 correct	9:36 9:53	27:30	Show details Prediction details: Rube Claus Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–13 Top-10 probability: 61 % Result: 12 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 7:04 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 24.4 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.6 s Gap behind: 4.4 s Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.20 km/h Running and total Run: 9:36 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 9:53 (3:18 / km) Error: −0:17 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 27:30 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 7:04 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:56 (39.4 km/h) Run: 9:36 (3:12 / km) Total: 27:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:27 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 37.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8	Lior Hendroker ISR	+40 s +27 s	G3 / G4	9:45 9:34	27:38	Show details Prediction details: Lior Hendroker Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 5–8 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 8 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 6:46 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 13.2 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 56 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Gap ahead: 16.6 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.88 km/h Running and total Run: 9:45 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 41 % Ergebnis Lauf: 9:34 (3:11 / km) Error: +0:11 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 27:38 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:46 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 17:13 (39.0 km/h) Run: 9:45 (3:15 / km) Total: 27:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:27 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 18.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 10	Žiga Korošec SLO	+45 s +28 s	G4 / G3	10:14 10:17	28:08	Show details Prediction details: Žiga Korošec Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 5–14 Top-10 probability: 66 % Result: 10 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 6:51 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 17.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.8 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.00 km/h Running and total Run: 10:14 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:17 (3:26 / km) Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 28:08 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:51 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:56 (39.4 km/h) Run: 10:14 (3:25 / km) Total: 28:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:27 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 23.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 2	Xavi Cabanilles Añó ESP	+24 s +12 s	G2 / G2 correct	11:22 9:57	28:13	Show details Prediction details: Xavi Cabanilles Añó Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 7–14 Top-10 probability: 53 % Result: 2 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 6:30 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 11.6 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 40.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 16.6 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 38.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.51 km/h Running and total Run: 11:22 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:52 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -1.83 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 9:57 (3:19 / km) Error: +1:25 / +0:28 / km Overall prediction: 28:13 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:30 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:27 (40.8 km/h) Run: 11:22 (3:47 / km) Total: 28:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:28 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 2.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 22	Wiktor Korol POL	+40 s +47 s	G3 / G5	10:21 11:35	28:14	Show details Prediction details: Wiktor Korol Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 7–11 Top-10 probability: 71 % Result: 22 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 6:46 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -6.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 39.0 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 4.8 s Result: Group 5 (8 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.15 km/h Running and total Run: 10:21 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:35 (3:52 / km) Error: −1:14 / −0:25 / km Overall prediction: 28:14 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:46 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 17:13 (39.0 km/h) Run: 10:21 (3:27 / km) Total: 28:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:27 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 18.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 14	Kalmer Kiiver EST	+46 s +40 s	G4 / G4 correct	10:24 10:18	28:18	Show details Prediction details: Kalmer Kiiver Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 8–14 Top-10 probability: 50 % Result: 14 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 6:52 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 5.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.96 km/h Running and total Run: 10:24 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:18 (3:26 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 28:18 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 6:52 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:56 (39.4 km/h) Run: 10:24 (3:28 / km) Total: 28:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:28 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 24.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 17	Zaкhar Tsivkovskyi UKR	+53 s +45 s	G4 / G5	10:24 10:09	28:18	Show details Prediction details: Zaкhar Tsivkovskyi Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 8–15 Top-10 probability: 35 % Result: 17 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 6:59 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: 7.8 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 5.6 s Result: Group 5 (8 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h Running and total Run: 10:24 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.86 %, Sicherheit 39 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:09 (3:23 / km) Error: +0:15 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 28:18 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:59 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:56 (39.4 km/h) Run: 10:24 (3:28 / km) Total: 28:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:28 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 31.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 20	Paul Mihai Galoiu ROU	+48 s +37 s	G4 / G5	10:55 11:14	28:49	Show details Prediction details: Paul Mihai Galoiu Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 10–15 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 20 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 6:54 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 10.8 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 48 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 39.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 4.7 s Result: Group 5 (8 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.57 km/h Running and total Run: 10:55 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 44 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:14 (3:45 / km) Error: −0:19 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 28:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:54 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:56 (39.4 km/h) Run: 10:55 (3:38 / km) Total: 28:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:28 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 26.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 3	Arthur Baigidin RUS	+23 s +2 s	G2 / G2 correct	12:18 10:09	29:09	Show details Prediction details: Arthur Baigidin Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 11–15 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 3 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 6:29 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 21.0 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 44 % Speed: 40.8 km/h Gap ahead: 5.6 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.62 km/h Running and total Run: 12:18 (4:06 / km) Historical basis: 4:11 / km Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.87 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:09 (3:23 / km) Error: +2:09 / +0:43 / km Overall prediction: 29:09 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 6:29 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:27 (40.8 km/h) Run: 12:18 (4:06 / km) Total: 29:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:27 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 1.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 27	Gustavs Vīksne LAT	+63 s +43 s	G5 / G8	9:58 11:15	29:27	Show details Prediction details: Gustavs Vīksne Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 7–15 Top-10 probability: 45 % Result: 27 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: 7:09 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 19.8 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 0 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.4 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 8 (2 people) Speed: 33.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.30 km/h Running and total Run: 9:58 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 0 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:15 (3:45 / km) Error: −1:17 / −0:26 / km Overall prediction: 29:27 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 7:09 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:21 (36.6 km/h) Run: 9:58 (3:19 / km) Total: 29:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:28 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 41.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 24	Valentin Iliev BUL	+64 s +60 s	G5 / G6	11:04 10:35	30:33	Show details Prediction details: Valentin Iliev Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 15–16 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 7:10 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +60 s Fehler: 3.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.07 km/h Running and total Run: 11:04 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:35 (3:32 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 30:33 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 7:10 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:21 (36.6 km/h) Run: 11:04 (3:41 / km) Total: 30:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:28 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 42.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 25	Oliver Ambrus SVK	+108 s +31 s	G7 / G5	10:32 12:33	31:31	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Ambrus Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 17–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +108 s Time: 7:54 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: 76.8 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 34.0 s Gap behind: 18.2 s Result: Group 5 (8 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.51 km/h Running and total Run: 10:32 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 12:33 (4:11 / km) Error: −2:01 / −0:40 / km Overall prediction: 31:31 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 7:54 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:53 (35.0 km/h) Run: 10:32 (3:31 / km) Total: 31:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:28 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 86.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 28	Tamerlan Musayev AZE	+74 s +46 s	G6 / G7	11:25 11:40	31:38	Show details Prediction details: Tamerlan Musayev Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 17–18 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 7:20 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: 27.8 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.55 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 34.0 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 34.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.10 km/h Running and total Run: 11:25 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:40 (3:53 / km) Error: −0:15 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 31:38 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 7:20 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:59 (35.4 km/h) Run: 11:25 (3:48 / km) Total: 31:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:28 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 52.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 19	Lars Beijk NED	+126 s +53 s	G7 / G5	11:20 10:22	32:19	Show details Prediction details: Lars Beijk Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 17–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +126 s Time: 8:12 Pace: 1:38 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: 73.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.2 s Gap behind: 290.3 s Result: Group 5 (8 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.40 km/h Running and total Run: 11:20 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:22 (3:27 / km) Error: +0:58 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 32:19 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 8:12 (1:38 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:53 (35.0 km/h) Run: 11:20 (3:47 / km) Total: 32:19 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:27 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 104.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 16	Kristupas Jančius LTU	+68 s +55 s	G5 / G5 correct	13:51 10:05	33:20	Show details Prediction details: Kristupas Jančius Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 20–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 7:14 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: 13.0 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.11 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 5.4 s Result: Group 5 (8 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h Running and total Run: 13:51 (4:37 / km) Historical basis: 4:42 / km Best comparable pace: 4:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.89 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:05 (3:22 / km) Error: +3:46 / +1:15 / km Overall prediction: 33:20 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 7:14 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:21 (36.6 km/h) Run: 13:51 (4:37 / km) Total: 33:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:27 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 46.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 26	Tomas Dvorak CZE	+67 s +41 s	G5 / G5 correct	14:09 13:16	33:38	Show details Prediction details: Tomas Dvorak Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 20–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 7:13 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: 25.6 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 5 (8 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h Running and total Run: 14:09 (4:43 / km) Historical basis: 4:44 / km Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:16 (4:25 / km) Error: +0:53 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: 33:38 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 7:13 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:21 (36.6 km/h) Run: 14:09 (4:43 / km) Total: 33:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:28 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 45.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 15	Tim Goergen LUX	+416 s +23 s	G8 / G3	12:37 10:59	35:32	Show details Prediction details: Tim Goergen Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 22–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +416 s Time: 13:02 Pace: 2:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 393.3 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.18 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 8 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 42.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 290.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.91 km/h Running and total Run: 12:37 (4:12 / km) Historical basis: 4:18 / km Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -2.34 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:59 (3:40 / km) Error: +1:38 / +0:33 / km Overall prediction: 35:32 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 13:02 (2:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:59 (42.1 km/h) Run: 12:37 (4:12 / km) Total: 35:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:42 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 380.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1	Lucas Gorrill GBR	+0 s +3 s	G0 / G1	9:48		Show details Prediction details: Lucas Gorrill Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 23–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 6:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:48 (3:16 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Quentin Bauer FRA	+0 s +25 s	G0 / G3	10:11		Show details Prediction details: Quentin Bauer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 24–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 6:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 38.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:11 (3:24 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Andrin Gallert SUI	+0 s +16 s	G0 / G3	10:11		Show details Prediction details: Andrin Gallert Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 25–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 6:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:11 (3:24 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Bastien Lambercier SUI	+0 s +42 s	G0 / G3	10:22		Show details Prediction details: Bastien Lambercier Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 26–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 6:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:22 (3:27 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Elliot Gladney Rundqvist DEN	+0 s +41 s	G0 / G3	10:58		Show details Prediction details: Elliot Gladney Rundqvist Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 27–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 6:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:58 (3:39 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21	Miguel Müller Cerqueira GER	+0 s +37 s	G0 / G4	11:35		Show details Prediction details: Miguel Müller Cerqueira Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 28–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 6:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 11:35 (3:52 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23	Čongor Borši SRB	+73 s +48 s	G6 / G5	11:31		Show details Prediction details: Čongor Borši Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 23 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +73 s Time: 7:19 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: 25.4 s Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.4 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 5 (8 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.98 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 11:31 (3:50 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 7:19 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 18:59 (35.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 6:27 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 52.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 29	Mario Brezovski MKD	+0 s +29 s	G0 / G8	12:31		Show details Prediction details: Mario Brezovski Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 29–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 6:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (2 people) Speed: 32.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 12:31 (4:10 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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