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Semifinal 2 Youth Men

12.09.2025 Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Youth Championships Kitzbuhel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 41/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 41.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 62.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.0
Mean swim error40.4 s
Mean bike-speed error2.29 km/h
Correct bike groups5/21
No history8
Within the 80% range20.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Dániel Németh
HUN
+22 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:03
9:35
 25:47
Show details
Prediction details: Dániel Németh

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 6:41
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:35 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 25:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:41 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:18 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 25:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 9 Liran Pelzman
ISR
+26 s
+36 s
G2 / G4
 9:26
9:35
 26:10
Show details
Prediction details: Liran Pelzman

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 6:45
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -9.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:26 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:35 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 26:10
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:45 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:18 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 9:26 (3:09 / km)
Total: 26:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 11.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 1 Jelle Kaindl
AUT
+11 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:51
10:11
 26:25
Show details
Prediction details: Jelle Kaindl

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 6:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:51 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:11 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 26:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:23 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 9:51 (3:17 / km)
Total: 26:25
4 / 12 Mats Decoene
BEL
+24 s
+50 s
G2 / G4
 9:54
9:50
 26:38
Show details
Prediction details: Mats Decoene

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 6:43
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -26.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.34 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.48 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:50 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 26:38
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:43 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:18 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Total: 26:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 11 Adam Dąbrowski
POL
+16 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		10:26
10:14
 27:10
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Dąbrowski

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:35
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -7.6 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:14 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 27:10
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:35 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:18 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 10:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 27:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 10 Marat Veratsennikau
BLR
+38 s
+56 s
G3 / G4
 9:15
9:39
 27:16
Show details
Prediction details: Marat Veratsennikau

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 6:57
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -17.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:15 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 27:16
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 6:57 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 9:15 (3:05 / km)
Total: 27:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 23.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Giuseppe Basta
ITA
+33 s
+29 s
G3 / G3
correct 		9:44
9:49
 27:45
Show details
Prediction details: Giuseppe Basta

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 6:52
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.72 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:49 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 27:45
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 6:52 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Total: 27:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 18.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 19 Artur Abras
EST
+48 s
+55 s
G4 / G4
correct 		9:44
11:12
 27:47
Show details
Prediction details: Artur Abras

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 7:07
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -7.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 7.2 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.15 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:12 (3:44 / km)
Error: −1:28 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 27:47
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:07 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Total: 27:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 32.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 17 Nik Vučko
SLO
+34 s
+53 s
G3 / G5
 9:50
9:52
 27:51
Show details
Prediction details: Nik Vučko

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 6:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -19.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:50 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:52 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 27:51
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:53 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 9:50 (3:17 / km)
Total: 27:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 18.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 14 Kıvanç Ören
TUR
+47 s
+34 s
G3 / G4
 10:33
10:20
 28:34
Show details
Prediction details: Kıvanç Ören

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 13–17
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 7:06
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 12.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.27 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:33 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:20 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 28:34
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 7:06 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 10:33 (3:31 / km)
Total: 28:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 31.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 18 Filip Kniz
SVK
+42 s
+48 s
G3 / G4
 10:42
10:54
 28:43
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Kniz

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 7:01
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -5.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:42 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:54 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 28:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:01 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 10:42 (3:34 / km)
Total: 28:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 27.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 20 Andreas Birkeland
NOR
+36 s
+57 s
G3 / G5
 10:57
10:31
 28:58
Show details
Prediction details: Andreas Birkeland

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–17
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 6:55
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -20.9 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.49 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:57 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 28:58
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:55 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 10:57 (3:39 / km)
Total: 28:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
13 / 6 Aleksei Petrovskii
AIN
+33 s
+54 s
G3 / G4
 11:14
9:19
 29:15
Show details
Prediction details: Aleksei Petrovskii

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 13–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 6:52
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -20.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:14 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -2.46 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:19 (3:06 / km)
Error: +1:55 / +0:38 / km
Overall prediction: 29:15
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 6:52 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 11:14 (3:45 / km)
Total: 29:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 18.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 25 Ali Rzazade
AZE
+34 s
+37 s
G3 / G8
 11:23
11:01
 29:24
Show details
Prediction details: Ali Rzazade

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 6:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.42 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:23 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:01 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 29:24
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 6:53 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 11:23 (3:48 / km)
Total: 29:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 18.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 24 Xander Boets
NED
+42 s
+76 s
G3 / G7
 12:00
11:07
 30:01
Show details
Prediction details: Xander Boets

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 16–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 7:01
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -33.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:00 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:07 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 30:01
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 7:01 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 12:00 (4:00 / km)
Total: 30:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 27.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 27 Henri Källström
FIN
+43 s
+76 s
G3 / G8
 13:29
12:01
 31:30
Show details
Prediction details: Henri Källström

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 19–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 7:02
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -32.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.50 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:29 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:01 (4:00 / km)
Error: +1:28 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 31:30
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:02 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:15 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 13:29 (4:30 / km)
Total: 31:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
17 / 22 Gustav Langkær
DEN
+77 s
+58 s
G6 / G5
 11:47 32:51
Show details
Prediction details: Gustav Langkær

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 18–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 7:36
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 19.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.70 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.2 s
Gap behind: 479.9 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:47 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 32:51
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 7:36 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 19:47 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 11:47 (3:56 / km)
Total: 32:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 62.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 28 Boyan Kirilov
BUL
+62 s
+74 s
G6 / G9
 11:52
11:15
 32:56
Show details
Prediction details: Boyan Kirilov

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 18–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 7:21
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: -12.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 15.2 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:52 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:15 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 32:56
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:21 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 19:47 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 11:52 (3:57 / km)
Total: 32:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 47 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Albert Håkansson
SUI
+0 s
+30 s
G0 / G2
9:26
Show details
Prediction details: Albert Håkansson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:26 (3:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Jonay Alvarez Almazan
ESP
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G2
9:22
Show details
Prediction details: Jonay Alvarez Almazan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:22 (3:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Antonin Mathieu
FRA
+0 s
+32 s
G0 / G2
9:43
Show details
Prediction details: Antonin Mathieu

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:43 (3:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Tom Mythen
GBR
+0 s
+57 s
G0 / G4
9:28
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Mythen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:28 (3:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Emile Vanolst
LUX
+557 s
+41 s
G7 / G4
10:02
Show details
Prediction details: Emile Vanolst

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +557 s
Time: 15:36
Pace: 3:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 516.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 479.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:02 (3:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:36 (3:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 542.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Artur Gaspar
POR
+0 s
+41 s
G0 / G4
10:31
Show details
Prediction details: Artur Gaspar

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Lorenz Rumpel
GER
+0 s
+57 s
G0 / G4
10:41
Show details
Prediction details: Lorenz Rumpel

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:41 (3:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21 Oskar Holmes
SWE
+0 s
+33 s
G0 / G4
11:31
Show details
Prediction details: Oskar Holmes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (12 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:31 (3:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23 Darragh Lazenby
IRL
+0 s
+65 s
G0 / G6
10:40
Show details
Prediction details: Darragh Lazenby

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:40 (3:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 26 Josif Malinski
MKD
+55 s
+71 s
G5 / G7
11:13
Show details
Prediction details: Josif Malinski

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 7:14
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -16.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.2 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:13 (3:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 7:14 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:54 (37.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 40 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 29 Marko Reljić
SRB
+23 s
+78 s
G2 / G9
11:49
Show details
Prediction details: Marko Reljić

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -29

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 6:42
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: -55.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:49 (3:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 6:42 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:18 (41.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.