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Semifinal 3 Youth Men

12.09.2025 Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Europe Triathlon Youth Championships Kitzbuhel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 39/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 37.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 70.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.7
Mean swim error19.8 s
Mean bike-speed error2.27 km/h
Correct bike groups4/24
No history3
Within the 80% range25.9 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Sebastian Ziekman
LUX
+9 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 8:55
9:54
 26:03
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Ziekman

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -7.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:55 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 26:03
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:09 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:59 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 8:55 (2:58 / km)
Total: 26:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 4.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Dominik Ivančík
SVK
+29 s
+18 s
G3 / G1
 9:06
9:53
 26:26
Show details
Prediction details: Dominik Ivančík

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 6:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 11.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:06 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:53 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 26:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:29 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 9:06 (3:02 / km)
Total: 26:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 9 Ondrej Plic
CZE
+35 s
+31 s
G3 / G2
 9:28
10:01
 26:48
Show details
Prediction details: Ondrej Plic

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 6:35
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 4.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:28 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.81 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:01 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 26:48
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:35 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 9:28 (3:09 / km)
Total: 26:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 26.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 8 Ludovico Trincheri
ITA
+13 s
+13 s
G3 / G2
 9:44
9:52
 27:04
Show details
Prediction details: Ludovico Trincheri

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 8.4 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:52 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 27:04
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 6:13 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 9:44 (3:15 / km)
Total: 27:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4 Finlay Goodman
GBR
+54 s
+33 s
G4 / G2
 9:19
9:33
 27:06
Show details
Prediction details: Finlay Goodman

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 6:54
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 20.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:19 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:33 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 27:06
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 6:54 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 9:19 (3:06 / km)
Total: 27:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 49.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 22 Barak Sakal
ISR
+7 s
+2 s
G2 / G2
correct 		10:01
13:17
 27:09
Show details
Prediction details: Barak Sakal

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:01 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:17 (4:26 / km)
Error: −3:16 / −1:05 / km
Overall prediction: 27:09
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:59 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 10:01 (3:20 / km)
Total: 27:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 2.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 12 Konrad Kralj
CRO
+36 s
+30 s
G3 / G2
 9:54
10:34
 27:14
Show details
Prediction details: Konrad Kralj

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 6:36
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 11.8 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 27:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:36 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 9:54 (3:18 / km)
Total: 27:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 14 Fyodor Vikentiev
AIN
+48 s
+35 s
G4 / G3
 9:35
10:08
 27:22
Show details
Prediction details: Fyodor Vikentiev

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–13
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 6:48
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 13.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:35 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:08 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 27:22
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 6:48 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 9:35 (3:12 / km)
Total: 27:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:08
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 39.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11 Raphael Künz
AUT
+56 s
+36 s
G4 / G2
 10:00
10:27
 27:47
Show details
Prediction details: Raphael Künz

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 12–17
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 6:56
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 19.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.05 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:00 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:27 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 27:47
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 6:56 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 10:00 (3:20 / km)
Total: 27:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 47.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 10 Ronan Salmu
EST
+55 s
+42 s
G4 / G2
 10:11
10:00
 27:58
Show details
Prediction details: Ronan Salmu

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 6:55
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 13.2 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:11 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:00 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 27:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:55 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 10:11 (3:24 / km)
Total: 27:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 51.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 16 Yağız Sarıkaya
TUR
+31 s
+18 s
G3 / G3
correct 		10:39
10:18
 27:59
Show details
Prediction details: Yağız Sarıkaya

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 13–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 6:31
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 12.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:39 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:18 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 27:59
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 6:31 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 10:39 (3:33 / km)
Total: 27:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 26.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 15 Maks Mori
SLO
+57 s
+40 s
G4 / G4
correct 		10:17
9:49
 28:04
Show details
Prediction details: Maks Mori

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 15–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 6:57
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 17.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:17 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:49 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 28:04
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:57 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 10:17 (3:26 / km)
Total: 28:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 53.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 7 Jules Chabanel
FRA
+28 s
+35 s
G3 / G2
 10:49
9:49
 28:09
Show details
Prediction details: Jules Chabanel

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:28
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -6.9 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.8 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:49 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:49 (3:16 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 28:09
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 6:28 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 10:49 (3:36 / km)
Total: 28:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 19.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 5 Rik Vereycken
BEL
+21 s
+17 s
G3 / G1
 10:56
10:12
 28:16
Show details
Prediction details: Rik Vereycken

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 14–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:21
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 4.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.4 s
Gap behind: 6.8 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:56 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:12 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 28:16
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:21 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 10:56 (3:39 / km)
Total: 28:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 17.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 21 Evan Tosh
IRL
+32 s
+58 s
G3 / G7
 10:58
10:22
 28:18
Show details
Prediction details: Evan Tosh

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 15–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 6:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -26.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:58 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:22 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 28:18
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 6:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 10:58 (3:39 / km)
Total: 28:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 28 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 20 Markiian Harmatii
UKR
+49 s
+27 s
G4 / G4
correct 		11:30
11:01
 29:17
Show details
Prediction details: Markiian Harmatii

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 19–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 6:49
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 21.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:30 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:01 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 29:17
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 6:49 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 11:30 (3:50 / km)
Total: 29:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 44.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 23 Oliver Dyrholm Pilegaard
DEN
+33 s
+36 s
G3 / G4
 12:05
11:47
 29:25
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Dyrholm Pilegaard

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 20–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 6:33
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -3.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.24 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:05 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:47 (3:56 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 29:25
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:33 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 12:05 (4:02 / km)
Total: 29:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 28.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 17 Rares Andrei Laiu
ROU
+47 s
+28 s
G4 / G2
 11:44
11:29
 29:31
Show details
Prediction details: Rares Andrei Laiu

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 19–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 6:47
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 19.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.8 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:44 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:29 (3:50 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 29:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:47 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 11:44 (3:55 / km)
Total: 29:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 43.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 27 Everts Pikšēns
LAT
+30 s
+34 s
G3 / G6
 12:23
12:49
 29:43
Show details
Prediction details: Everts Pikšēns

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 20–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 6:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -4.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:23 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:49 (4:16 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 29:43
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 6:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 12:23 (4:08 / km)
Total: 29:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 13 Markus Berget Galleberg
NOR
+103 s
+31 s
G6 / G2
 10:17
11:06
 30:10
Show details
Prediction details: Markus Berget Galleberg

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 21–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 7:43
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 71.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:17 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:06 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 30:10
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 7:43 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:11 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 10:17 (3:26 / km)
Total: 30:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 98.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Arcadi Sala Carbasse
ESP
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
9:55
Show details
Prediction details: Arcadi Sala Carbasse

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:55 (3:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Bo Haag
GER
+0 s
+36 s
G0 / G2
9:43
Show details
Prediction details: Bo Haag

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:43 (3:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Thijn Maas
NED
+89 s
+48 s
G6 / G3
10:30
Show details
Prediction details: Thijn Maas

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +89 s
Time: 7:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 40.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.9 s
Gap behind: 13.6 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 7:29 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:11 (36.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 85 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Johannes Strömsholm
FIN
+0 s
+75 s
G1 / G5
10:21
Show details
Prediction details: Johannes Strömsholm

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: -75.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:21 (3:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:37 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 24 Tomé Tomé
POR
+62 s
+15 s
G5 / G3
12:17
Show details
Prediction details: Tomé Tomé

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 7:02
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 47.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:17 (4:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 7:02 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:35 (38.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 58.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25 Petar Savić
SRB
+0 s
+45 s
G0 / G7
11:44
Show details
Prediction details: Petar Savić

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:44 (3:55 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 26 Sergej Maljanovski-Arnaudovski
MKD
+67 s
+42 s
G6 / G7
12:26
Show details
Prediction details: Sergej Maljanovski-Arnaudovski

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 7:07
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 25.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 21.9 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:26 (4:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 7:07 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:11 (36.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 63.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.