Prediction comparison

Elite Men

03.08.2025 Dresden GER

Race information and calculation basis

2025 GER Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 03.08.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 56/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 72.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 80.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error8.1

Mean swim error12.8 s

Mean bike-speed error2.83 km/h

Correct bike groups20/38

No history2

Within the 80% range35.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 3	Lasse Nygaard Priester GER	+26 s +35 s	G2 / G2 correct	14:37 14:30	43:17	Show details Prediction details: Lasse Nygaard Priester Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 6–20 Top-10 probability: 71 % Result: 3 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -9.5 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.72 km/h Running and total Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km) Historical basis: 2:55 / km Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 63 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:30 (2:54 / km) Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 43:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km) Total: 43:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 0.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1	Henry Graf GER	+12 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	14:50 14:31	43:30	Show details Prediction details: Henry Graf Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 6–13 Top-10 probability: 75 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 8:59 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 12.0 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 97 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 81 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 45.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.43 km/h Running and total Run: 14:50 (2:58 / km) Historical basis: 2:57 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:31 (2:54 / km) Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 43:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 14:50 (2:58 / km) Total: 43:30
3 / 10	Justus Nieschlag GER	+11 s +28 s	G1 / G2	14:53 14:47	43:33	Show details Prediction details: Justus Nieschlag Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 6–11 Top-10 probability: 83 % Result: 10 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: -17.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 84 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.8 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.77 km/h Running and total Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 2:58 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:47 (2:57 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 43:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km) Total: 43:33
4 / 12	Jaspar Ortfeld GER	+35 s +62 s	G2 / G3	14:54 14:14	43:34	Show details Prediction details: Jaspar Ortfeld Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 8–24 Top-10 probability: 39 % Result: 12 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: -26.8 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 83 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.27 km/h Running and total Run: 14:54 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 63 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:14 (2:51 / km) Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 43:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 14:54 (2:59 / km) Total: 43:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 10.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2	Jonas Osterholt GER	+11 s +7 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:04 15:04	43:44	Show details Prediction details: Jonas Osterholt Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 7–17 Top-10 probability: 61 % Result: 2 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 4.1 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 79 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 46.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.58 km/h Running and total Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:00 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 76 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:04 (3:01 / km) Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 43:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km) Total: 43:44
6 / 4	Luca Fahrenson GER	+36 s +19 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:06 14:41	43:46	Show details Prediction details: Luca Fahrenson Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 10–31 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 4 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 17.2 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 65 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.38 km/h Running and total Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km) Historical basis: 3:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 56 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:41 (2:56 / km) Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 43:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km) Total: 43:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 26.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 16	Kjell Arved Brandt GER	+27 s +47 s	G2 / G3	15:13 14:36	43:53	Show details Prediction details: Kjell Arved Brandt Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 10–23 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 16 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -19.7 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 35 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h Running and total Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 33 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:36 (2:55 / km) Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 43:53 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km) Total: 43:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:56 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m About 17.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 5	Fabian Kraft GER	+25 s +11 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:14 14:44	43:54	Show details Prediction details: Fabian Kraft Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 10–21 Top-10 probability: 15 % Result: 5 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 14.4 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 48 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 44.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.10 km/h Running and total Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:44 (2:57 / km) Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 43:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km) Total: 43:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:56 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m About 15.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 8	Valentin Wernz GER	+19 s +26 s	G1 / G2	15:21 14:52	44:01	Show details Prediction details: Valentin Wernz Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 9–20 Top-10 probability: 18 % Result: 8 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -6.7 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 57 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 63 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.85 km/h Running and total Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 40 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:52 (2:58 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 44:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km) Total: 44:01
10 / 13	Chris Ziehmer GER	+16 s +36 s	G1 / G2	15:26 15:05	44:06	Show details Prediction details: Chris Ziehmer Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 9–20 Top-10 probability: 15 % Result: 13 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:03 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +36 s Fehler: -20.3 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 74 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.03 km/h Running and total Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:01 / km) Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 44:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km) Total: 44:06
11 / 9	Benedikt Bettin GER	+19 s +25 s	G1 / G2	15:28 14:55	44:08	Show details Prediction details: Benedikt Bettin Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 12–19 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 9 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: -6.5 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 60 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.5 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.83 km/h Running and total Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:55 (2:59 / km) Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 44:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km) Total: 44:08
12 / 7	Eric Diener GER	+28 s +34 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:30 14:41	44:10	Show details Prediction details: Eric Diener Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 12–22 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 7 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: -6.3 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.70 km/h Running and total Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 70 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:41 (2:56 / km) Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 44:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km) Total: 44:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 3.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 6	Justus Töpper GER	+31 s +23 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:34 14:39	44:14	Show details Prediction details: Justus Töpper Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 10–30 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 6 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 7.6 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.7 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.30 km/h Running and total Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:39 (2:56 / km) Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 44:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Total: 44:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 20	Christian Ache GER	+37 s +54 s	G2 / G3	15:36 15:00	44:16	Show details Prediction details: Christian Ache Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 17–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: -16.8 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.13 km/h Running and total Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:00 (3:00 / km) Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 44:16 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km) Total: 44:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 0.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 19	Luis Rühl GER	+13 s +35 s	G1 / G2	15:39 15:38	44:19	Show details Prediction details: Luis Rühl Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 8–28 Top-10 probability: 20 % Result: 19 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: 9:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -21.6 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 48 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.06 km/h Running and total Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 47 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:38 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 44:19 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km) Total: 44:19
16 / 14	Janne Büttel GER	+27 s +33 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:40 15:07	44:20	Show details Prediction details: Janne Büttel Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 8–31 Top-10 probability: 19 % Result: 14 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: -6.5 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.67 km/h Running and total Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 65 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:07 (3:01 / km) Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 44:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Total: 44:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 1.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 23	Fabian Schönke GER	+24 s +52 s	G1 / G3	15:43 15:09	44:23	Show details Prediction details: Fabian Schönke Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 11–30 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 23 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: -28.2 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 45 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.0 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.35 km/h Running and total Run: 15:43 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 76 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:02 / km) Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 44:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 15:43 (3:09 / km) Total: 44:23
18 / 21	Henry Haag GER	+4 s +7 s	G1 / G2	15:56 15:37	44:36	Show details Prediction details: Henry Haag Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 17–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +4 s Time: 8:51 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: -3.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 6.8 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.15 km/h Running and total Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:07 / km) Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 44:36 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km) Total: 44:36
19 / 11	Jan Semmler GER	+27 s +26 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:00 14:54	44:40	Show details Prediction details: Jan Semmler Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 20–27 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 11 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 1.1 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 54 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.47 km/h Running and total Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 14:54 (2:59 / km) Error: +1:06 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 44:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Total: 44:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 2.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 29	Cedric Osterholt GER	+19 s +5 s	G1 / G2	16:07 15:53	44:47	Show details Prediction details: Cedric Osterholt Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 9–32 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 29 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 14.0 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 72 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 56 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.15 km/h Running and total Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:53 (3:11 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 44:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km) Total: 44:47
21 / 33	Lasse Lührs GER	+14 s +37 s	G1 / G2	16:11 16:18	44:51	Show details Prediction details: Lasse Lührs Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 19–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 33 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -23.3 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 63 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 76 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.11 km/h Running and total Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 48 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km) Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 44:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:51
22 / 18	Tim Semmler GER	+28 s +17 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:20 15:31	45:00	Show details Prediction details: Tim Semmler Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 23–30 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 10.8 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.32 km/h Running and total Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km) Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 45:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Total: 45:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 18.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 24	Linus Lehnen GER	+27 s +63 s	G2 / G3	16:26 15:05	45:06	Show details Prediction details: Linus Lehnen Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 17–33 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 24 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +63 s Fehler: -36.4 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 56 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.30 km/h Running and total Run: 16:26 (3:17 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 89 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:01 / km) Error: +1:21 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 45:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 16:26 (3:17 / km) Total: 45:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 28	Lukas Bugar GER	+26 s +28 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:31 15:52	45:11	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Bugar Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 24–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: -2.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 39 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.38 km/h Running and total Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 (3:10 / km) Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 45:11 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Total: 45:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 1.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 15	Lasse Rohrbeck GER	+20 s +19 s	G1 / G2	16:36 15:07	45:16	Show details Prediction details: Lasse Rohrbeck Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 22–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: 10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 0.8 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 61 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 53 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 4.0 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h Running and total Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 51 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:07 (3:01 / km) Error: +1:29 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: 45:16 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km) Total: 45:16
26 / 37	Nicklas Hogervorst GER	+40 s +34 s	G3 / G3 correct	15:15 15:50	45:36	Show details Prediction details: Nicklas Hogervorst Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 10–36 Top-10 probability: 13 % Result: 37 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 6.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 24 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.69 km/h Running and total Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:03 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:10 / km) Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 45:36 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:33 (40.6 km/h) Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km) Total: 45:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 1.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 27	Leon Vollstedt GER	+35 s +13 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:58 15:51	45:38	Show details Prediction details: Leon Vollstedt Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 21–36 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 27 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 21.5 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 96 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 44.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.02 km/h Running and total Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 84 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km) Error: +1:07 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 45:38 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km) Total: 45:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:19 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 3.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 17	Jan Scheffold GER	+40 s +8 s	G3 / G2	15:42 15:30	46:03	Show details Prediction details: Jan Scheffold Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 23–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: 11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 31.8 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 87 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 44.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.19 km/h Running and total Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 70 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km) Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 46:03 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:33 (40.6 km/h) Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km) Total: 46:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 1.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 38	Maximilian Krüger GER	+26 s +26 s	G2 / G2 correct	17:32 16:38	46:12	Show details Prediction details: Maximilian Krüger Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 32–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 38 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.41 km/h Running and total Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 93 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km) Error: +0:54 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 46:12 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km) Total: 46:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 16.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 34	Jayden Scott Koslick GER	+40 s +52 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:38 15:40	46:59	Show details Prediction details: Jayden Scott Koslick Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 31–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 34 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: -12.4 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.22 km/h Running and total Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 46:59 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:33 (40.6 km/h) Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km) Total: 46:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 1.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 32	Moritz Hägel GER	+43 s +53 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:51 15:33	47:12	Show details Prediction details: Moritz Hägel Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 33–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 32 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 9:30 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: -9.7 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 4.6 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.27 km/h Running and total Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:33 (3:07 / km) Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 47:12 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:33 (40.6 km/h) Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km) Total: 47:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 4.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 40	Lukas Merta GER	+28 s +22 s	G2 / G2 correct	19:30 16:42	48:10	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Merta Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 37–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 40 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 5.9 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.02 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 2.7 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.35 km/h Running and total Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.11 %, Sicherheit 48 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:42 (3:20 / km) Error: +2:48 / +0:34 / km Overall prediction: 48:10 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km) Total: 48:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:57 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 18.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 31	Lukas Meckel GER	+48 s +42 s	G3 / G3 correct	17:51 15:28	48:12	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Meckel Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 36–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 5.9 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 66 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.6 s Gap behind: 7.1 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.86 km/h Running and total Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 57 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:28 (3:06 / km) Error: +2:23 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 48:12 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:33 (40.6 km/h) Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km) Total: 48:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 9.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22	Maximilian Meckel GER	+31 s +15 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:43		Show details Prediction details: Maximilian Meckel Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 22 Deviation: -22 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 16.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 44.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.16 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 6.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25	Theo Sonnenberg GER	+55 s +62 s	G4 / G3	15:12		Show details Prediction details: Theo Sonnenberg Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 25 Deviation: -25 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 9:42 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: -7.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 45.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.58 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (3:02 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 16.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 26	Lennart Sievers GER	+17 s +34 s	G1 / G2	15:53		Show details Prediction details: Lennart Sievers Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 26 Deviation: -26 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 9:04 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: -17.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (13 people) Gruppe 1: 63 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 1.5 s Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.14 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:53 (3:11 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 30	Wilhelm Hirsch GER	+42 s +50 s	G3 / G3 correct	15:18		Show details Prediction details: Wilhelm Hirsch Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 30 Deviation: -30 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 9:29 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: -8.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.16 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:18 (3:04 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:33 (40.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:25 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 3.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 35	Jan Fuckerirer GER	+37 s +50 s	G2 / G3	15:46		Show details Prediction details: Jan Fuckerirer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 35 Deviation: -35 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:24 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: -13.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (18 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 42.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 44.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.85 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:03 (42.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 12.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 36	Nils Lorenz GER	+0 s +22 s	G0 / G2	16:20		Show details Prediction details: Nils Lorenz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 39–39 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 8:47 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (25 people) Speed: 45.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 39	Phil Pfeifer GER	+0 s +58 s	G0 / G3	16:08		Show details Prediction details: Phil Pfeifer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 40–40 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 8:47 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (13 people) Speed: 45.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:08 (3:14 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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