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Elite Women

13.07.2025 Orkney GBR
Race information and calculation basis
2025 GIB Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.07.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error265.2 s
Mean bike-speed error1.37 km/h
Correct bike groups1/3
No history1
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Nicola Macedo
GIB
+346 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 52:01
53:06
 2:11:33
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Macedo

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +346 s
Time: 35:33
Pace: 2:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 346.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 206.5 s
Gap behind: 178.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 52:01 (5:12 / km)
Historical basis: 5:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 53:06 (5:19 / km)
Error: −1:05 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 2:11:33
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 35:33 (2:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:48 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 52:01 (5:12 / km)
Total: 2:11:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 35:26
Pace: 2:22 / 100 m
About 7.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +338.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Portia Walton
GIB
+140 s
+150 s
G1 / G3
 55:40
50:14
 2:15:05
Show details
Prediction details: Portia Walton

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +140 s
Time: 32:07
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +150 s
Fehler: -10.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 206.5 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 55:40 (5:34 / km)
Historical basis: 5:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:14 (5:01 / km)
Error: +5:26 / +0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 2:15:05
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 32:07 (2:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:17:06 (31.1 km/h)
Run: 55:40 (5:34 / km)
Total: 2:15:05
0 / 2 Alexandra Peralta
GBR
+524 s
+85 s
G2 / G2
correct
51:16
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandra Peralta

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +524 s
Time: 38:31
Pace: 2:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 439.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 178.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 51:16 (5:08 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 38:31 (2:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:48 (32.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 35:33
Pace: 2:22 / 100 m
About 177.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +346.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Karyn Barnett
GIB
+0 s
+143 s
G0 / G4
50:01
Show details
Prediction details: Karyn Barnett

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 29:47
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +143 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 27.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:01 (5:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 29:47 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.