Prediction comparison

Elite Women

26.10.2025 Daiba JPN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 JPN Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 48/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 55.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 93.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error12.4

Mean swim error28.8 s

Mean bike-speed error0.79 km/h

Correct bike groups8/46

No history1

Within the 80% range10.6 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Manami Hayashi JPN	+14 s +35 s	G1 / G1 correct	36:26 35:12	1:36:39	Show details Prediction details: Manami Hayashi Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 10–11 Top-10 probability: 75 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 19:58 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -20.6 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 38.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.6 s Gap behind: 4.9 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h Running and total Run: 36:26 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:12 (3:31 / km) Error: +1:14 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:36:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:58 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:58 (38.5 km/h) Run: 36:26 (3:39 / km) Total: 1:36:39
2 / 2	Yuko Takahashi JPN	+35 s +49 s	G3 / G1	37:11 35:28	1:38:23	Show details Prediction details: Yuko Takahashi Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 10–15 Top-10 probability: 19 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 20:19 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: -14.0 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 38.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.8 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.95 km/h Running and total Run: 37:11 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:28 (3:33 / km) Error: +1:43 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:19 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (38.2 km/h) Run: 37:11 (3:43 / km) Total: 1:38:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 16.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7	Ayame Hayashi JPN	+43 s +47 s	G3 / G1	37:13 37:07	1:38:25	Show details Prediction details: Ayame Hayashi Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 11–16 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 7 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 20:27 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -3.6 s H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 38.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.92 km/h Running and total Run: 37:13 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:07 (3:43 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:27 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (38.2 km/h) Run: 37:13 (3:43 / km) Total: 1:38:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 25.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3	Mako Hiraizumi JPN	+39 s +41 s	G3 / G1	38:21 36:10	1:39:33	Show details Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 11–21 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 20:23 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: -2.5 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 173 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 38.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 38:21 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 173 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:10 (3:37 / km) Error: +2:11 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:23 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (38.2 km/h) Run: 38:21 (3:50 / km) Total: 1:39:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 20.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4	Kanae Takenaka JPN	+8 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	39:34 36:47	1:39:47	Show details Prediction details: Kanae Takenaka Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 12–16 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +8 s Time: 19:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 8.4 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 38.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.15 km/h Running and total Run: 39:34 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:47 (3:41 / km) Error: +2:47 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:52 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:58 (38.5 km/h) Run: 39:34 (3:57 / km) Total: 1:39:47
6 / 6	Miyu Sakai JPN	+25 s +37 s	G2 / G1	39:20 36:58	1:40:10	Show details Prediction details: Miyu Sakai Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 12–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 20:09 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -11.9 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 50 % Speed: 38.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.8 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.85 km/h Running and total Run: 39:20 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:58 (3:42 / km) Error: +2:22 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 1:40:10 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:09 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (38.2 km/h) Run: 39:20 (3:56 / km) Total: 1:40:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 6.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 5	Kanade Sugiura JPN	+71 s +46 s	G4 / G1	37:23 36:55	1:40:17	Show details Prediction details: Kanade Sugiura Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 12–22 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 5 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 20:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: 25.3 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.36 km/h Running and total Run: 37:23 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 72 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:55 (3:42 / km) Error: +0:28 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:40:17 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:55 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 37:23 (3:44 / km) Total: 1:40:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 53 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 22	Erika Tanno JPN	+84 s +117 s	G4 / G5	38:20 37:37	1:41:14	Show details Prediction details: Erika Tanno Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 16–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +84 s Time: 21:08 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +117 s Fehler: -33.1 s H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.4 s Gap behind: 8.9 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.93 km/h Running and total Run: 38:20 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:37 (3:46 / km) Error: +0:43 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:41:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:08 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 38:20 (3:50 / km) Total: 1:41:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 65.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 12	Narumi Kanke JPN	+70 s +77 s	G4 / G3	38:30 38:13	1:41:24	Show details Prediction details: Narumi Kanke Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 15–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 20:54 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +77 s Fehler: -6.7 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h Running and total Run: 38:30 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:13 (3:49 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:41:24 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:54 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 38:30 (3:51 / km) Total: 1:41:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 52 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 8	Himeka Sato JPN	+27 s +38 s	G2 / G1	40:48 37:20	1:41:38	Show details Prediction details: Himeka Sato Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 15–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 20:11 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: -10.8 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 38.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 7.8 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.84 km/h Running and total Run: 40:48 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur -0.79 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:20 (3:44 / km) Error: +3:28 / +0:21 / km Overall prediction: 1:41:38 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:11 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (38.2 km/h) Run: 40:48 (4:05 / km) Total: 1:41:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 8.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 30	Nari Masagaki JPN	+94 s +183 s	G4 / G5	38:55 40:09	1:41:49	Show details Prediction details: Nari Masagaki Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 19–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 30 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: 21:18 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +183 s Fehler: -89.3 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 37.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h Running and total Run: 38:55 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:09 (4:01 / km) Error: −1:14 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:41:49 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 21:18 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 38:55 (3:54 / km) Total: 1:41:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 75.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13	Mao Shimazaki JPN	+106 s +107 s	G5 / G5 correct	36:23 36:16	1:41:50	Show details Prediction details: Mao Shimazaki Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 15–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +106 s Time: 21:30 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +107 s Fehler: -0.9 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.7 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.26 km/h Running and total Run: 36:23 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:16 (3:38 / km) Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:41:50 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:30 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (36.6 km/h) Run: 36:23 (3:38 / km) Total: 1:41:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 87.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 21	Minori Ikeno JPN	+19 s +37 s	G2 / G2 correct	41:12 40:10	1:42:02	Show details Prediction details: Minori Ikeno Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 15–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: -17.7 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 53 % Speed: 38.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.9 s Gap behind: 5.8 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.51 km/h Running and total Run: 41:12 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:10 (4:01 / km) Error: +1:02 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:42:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:03 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (38.2 km/h) Run: 41:12 (4:07 / km) Total: 1:42:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 9	Hinaka Masuda JPN	+40 s +0 s	G3 / G1	40:54 39:25	1:42:06	Show details Prediction details: Hinaka Masuda Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 19–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 20:24 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 39.6 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 38.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h Running and total Run: 40:54 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:25 (3:57 / km) Error: +1:29 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:42:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:24 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (38.2 km/h) Run: 40:54 (4:05 / km) Total: 1:42:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 21.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 26	Maaya Uehata JPN	+47 s +60 s	G3 / G3 correct	41:01 41:44	1:42:13	Show details Prediction details: Maaya Uehata Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 23–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 20:31 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +60 s Fehler: -13.1 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h Running and total Run: 41:01 (4:06 / km) Historical basis: 4:05 / km Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 41 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:44 (4:10 / km) Error: −0:43 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:42:13 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 20:31 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (38.2 km/h) Run: 41:01 (4:06 / km) Total: 1:42:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 28.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 10	Azusa Yamada JPN	+60 s +63 s	G4 / G3	39:20 37:43	1:42:14	Show details Prediction details: Azusa Yamada Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 16–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 20:44 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +63 s Fehler: -3.5 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h Running and total Run: 39:20 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:43 (3:46 / km) Error: +1:37 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:42:14 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 20:44 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 39:20 (3:56 / km) Total: 1:42:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 41.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 25	Saki Yanagihara JPN	+9 s +42 s	G1 / G1 correct	42:05 43:48	1:42:18	Show details Prediction details: Saki Yanagihara Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 20–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 19:53 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -33.2 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 71 % Speed: 38.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 5.6 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h Running and total Run: 42:05 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 43:48 (4:23 / km) Error: −1:43 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:42:18 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:53 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:58 (38.5 km/h) Run: 42:05 (4:13 / km) Total: 1:42:18
18 / 15	Momoko Seki JPN	+56 s +53 s	G4 / G3	40:25 38:45	1:43:19	Show details Prediction details: Momoko Seki Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 19–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 20:40 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: 3.0 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.2 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h Running and total Run: 40:25 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:45 (3:53 / km) Error: +1:40 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:19 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:40 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 40:25 (4:02 / km) Total: 1:43:19 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 37.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 32	Momoe Fujisaka JPN	+68 s +46 s	G4 / G3	40:29 42:34	1:43:23	Show details Prediction details: Momoe Fujisaka Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 24–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 32 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 20:52 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: 21.7 s H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.1 s Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 37.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h Running and total Run: 40:29 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:03 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:34 (4:15 / km) Error: −2:05 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:23 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 20:52 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 40:29 (4:03 / km) Total: 1:43:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 49.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 16	Haruka Sekiguchi JPN	+141 s +104 s	G5 / G4	38:04 38:14	1:43:31	Show details Prediction details: Haruka Sekiguchi Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 25–37 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +141 s Time: 22:05 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +104 s Fehler: 36.9 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.5 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.83 km/h Running and total Run: 38:04 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:14 (3:49 / km) Error: −0:10 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:31 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 22:05 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (36.6 km/h) Run: 38:04 (3:48 / km) Total: 1:43:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 122.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 19	Rio Noda JPN	+63 s +71 s	G4 / G3	40:46 39:27	1:43:40	Show details Prediction details: Rio Noda Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 22–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: 20:47 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +71 s Fehler: -8.4 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 5.1 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h Running and total Run: 40:46 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:05 / km Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 130 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:27 (3:57 / km) Error: +1:19 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:40 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:47 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 40:46 (4:05 / km) Total: 1:43:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 44.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 18	Minami Kubono JPN	+93 s +101 s	G4 / G3	41:05 39:25	1:43:59	Show details Prediction details: Minami Kubono Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 28–34 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +93 s Time: 21:17 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +101 s Fehler: -8.2 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 92 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.9 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.42 km/h Running and total Run: 41:05 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 92 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:25 (3:57 / km) Error: +1:40 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:17 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 41:05 (4:07 / km) Total: 1:43:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 74.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 37	Nagiho Ishida JPN	+95 s +102 s	G4 / G6	41:32 42:13	1:44:26	Show details Prediction details: Nagiho Ishida Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 30–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 37 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +95 s Time: 21:19 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +102 s Fehler: -6.9 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 6 (3 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.05 km/h Running and total Run: 41:32 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:09 / km Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:13 (4:13 / km) Error: −0:41 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:19 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 41:32 (4:09 / km) Total: 1:44:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 76.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 23	Yume Obara JPN	+95 s +92 s	G4 / G3	41:53 40:03	1:44:47	Show details Prediction details: Yume Obara Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 31–42 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +95 s Time: 21:19 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +92 s Fehler: 3.4 s H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 10.7 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h Running and total Run: 41:53 (4:11 / km) Historical basis: 4:11 / km Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:03 (4:00 / km) Error: +1:50 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:47 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:19 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 41:53 (4:11 / km) Total: 1:44:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 77.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 42	Mio Nagashima JPN	+70 s +105 s	G4 / G5	42:07 43:52	1:45:01	Show details Prediction details: Mio Nagashima Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 32–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 42 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 20:54 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +105 s Fehler: -34.9 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 77 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.01 km/h Running and total Run: 42:07 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 59 % Ergebnis Lauf: 43:52 (4:23 / km) Error: −1:45 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:01 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:54 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 42:07 (4:13 / km) Total: 1:45:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 51.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 43	Saya Aoyama JPN	+53 s +47 s	G4 / G5	42:11 44:15	1:45:05	Show details Prediction details: Saya Aoyama Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 28–37 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 43 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 20:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: 5.7 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 43 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 36.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h Running and total Run: 42:11 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:14 / km Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 44:15 (4:26 / km) Error: −2:04 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:05 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 20:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 42:11 (4:13 / km) Total: 1:45:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 34.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 11	Izumi Kai JPN	+72 s +38 s	G4 / G1	42:15 40:33	1:45:09	Show details Prediction details: Izumi Kai Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 33–37 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +72 s Time: 20:56 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +38 s Fehler: 33.8 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 4.7 s Result: Group 1 (11 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.26 km/h Running and total Run: 42:15 (4:14 / km) Historical basis: 4:14 / km Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:33 (4:03 / km) Error: +1:42 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:09 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 20:56 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 42:15 (4:14 / km) Total: 1:45:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 53.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 28	Karin Saito JPN	+93 s +88 s	G4 / G3	42:21 42:08	1:45:15	Show details Prediction details: Karin Saito Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 34–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +93 s Time: 21:17 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +88 s Fehler: 5.3 s H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h Running and total Run: 42:21 (4:14 / km) Historical basis: 4:14 / km Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:08 (4:13 / km) Error: +0:13 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:15 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:17 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 42:21 (4:14 / km) Total: 1:45:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 75 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 20	Mako Sasaki JPN	+143 s +102 s	G5 / G3	40:48 39:34	1:46:15	Show details Prediction details: Mako Sasaki Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 35–43 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +143 s Time: 22:07 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +102 s Fehler: 41.0 s H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 13.5 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.59 km/h Running and total Run: 40:48 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:34 (3:57 / km) Error: +1:14 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:46:15 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:07 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (36.6 km/h) Run: 40:48 (4:05 / km) Total: 1:46:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 124.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 24	Saika Kai JPN	+127 s +81 s	G5 / G3	40:57 40:11	1:46:24	Show details Prediction details: Saika Kai Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 35–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +127 s Time: 21:51 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +81 s Fehler: 46.4 s H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.3 s Gap behind: 4.0 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.27 km/h Running and total Run: 40:57 (4:06 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:11 (4:01 / km) Error: +0:46 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 1:46:24 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 21:51 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (36.6 km/h) Run: 40:57 (4:06 / km) Total: 1:46:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 109.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 35	Hanna Yoshizaki JPN	+77 s +128 s	G4 / G5	43:41 41:36	1:46:35	Show details Prediction details: Hanna Yoshizaki Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 31–45 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 35 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +77 s Time: 21:01 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +128 s Fehler: -51.5 s H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 85 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.7 s Gap behind: 7.4 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h Running and total Run: 43:41 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:21 / km Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:36 (4:10 / km) Error: +2:05 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:46:35 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:01 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: 43:41 (4:22 / km) Total: 1:46:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 58.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 17	Ikumi Seto JPN	+209 s +126 s	G6 / G5	38:16 36:46	1:46:49	Show details Prediction details: Ikumi Seto Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 36–41 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: 15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +209 s Time: 23:13 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +126 s Fehler: 82.8 s H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 49.4 s Gap behind: 15.3 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.46 km/h Running and total Run: 38:16 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:46 (3:41 / km) Error: +1:30 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:46:49 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 23:13 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:48 (35.5 km/h) Run: 38:16 (3:50 / km) Total: 1:46:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 190.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 33	Nanami Ishibashi JPN	+131 s +113 s	G5 / G5 correct	41:35 41:04	1:47:02	Show details Prediction details: Nanami Ishibashi Placement Prediction: 33 80% range: 38–42 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 33 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +131 s Time: 21:55 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +113 s Fehler: 18.4 s H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.0 s Gap behind: 9.5 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h Running and total Run: 41:35 (4:10 / km) Historical basis: 4:09 / km Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:04 (4:06 / km) Error: +0:31 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:47:02 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 21:55 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (36.6 km/h) Run: 41:35 (4:10 / km) Total: 1:47:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 113.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 31	Karen Mizuki JPN	+119 s +184 s	G5 / G6	42:34 39:59	1:48:01	Show details Prediction details: Karen Mizuki Placement Prediction: 34 80% range: 38–46 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +119 s Time: 21:43 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +184 s Fehler: -64.9 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.3 s Gap behind: 8.3 s Result: Group 6 (3 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h Running and total Run: 42:34 (4:15 / km) Historical basis: 4:16 / km Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 73 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:59 (4:00 / km) Error: +2:35 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 1:48:01 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:43 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (36.6 km/h) Run: 42:34 (4:15 / km) Total: 1:48:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 100.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 41	Sora Hayashida JPN	+107 s +93 s	G5 / G3	43:56 45:45	1:49:23	Show details Prediction details: Sora Hayashida Placement Prediction: 35 80% range: 42–46 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 41 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +107 s Time: 21:31 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +93 s Fehler: 13.7 s H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 8.1 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h Running and total Run: 43:56 (4:24 / km) Historical basis: 4:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 91 % Ergebnis Lauf: 45:45 (4:35 / km) Error: −1:49 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 1:49:23 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 21:31 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (36.6 km/h) Run: 43:56 (4:24 / km) Total: 1:49:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 88.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 27	Amane Yui JPN	+224 s +227 s	G6 / G5	41:06 39:35	1:49:39	Show details Prediction details: Amane Yui Placement Prediction: 36 80% range: 43–46 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +224 s Time: 23:28 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +227 s Fehler: -2.9 s H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 92 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 18, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 15.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.66 km/h Running and total Run: 41:06 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 92 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:35 (3:58 / km) Error: +1:31 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:49:39 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 23:28 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:48 (35.5 km/h) Run: 41:06 (4:07 / km) Total: 1:49:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 205.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 36	Hidemi Ogino JPN	+157 s +183 s	G6 / G5	41:20 41:42	1:49:53	Show details Prediction details: Hidemi Ogino Placement Prediction: 37 80% range: 43–46 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +157 s Time: 22:21 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +183 s Fehler: -26.5 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.5 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.05 km/h Running and total Run: 41:20 (4:08 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 41 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:42 (4:10 / km) Error: −0:22 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:49:53 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 22:21 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:48 (35.5 km/h) Run: 41:20 (4:08 / km) Total: 1:49:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 138.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14	Himari Shimizu JPN	+49 s +67 s	G3 / G3 correct	38:39		Show details Prediction details: Himari Shimizu Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 14 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 20:33 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +67 s Fehler: -18.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.36 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:39 (3:52 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 20:33 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (38.2 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 30.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 29	Kanon Noguchi JPN	+53 s +99 s	G4 / G3	42:10		Show details Prediction details: Kanon Noguchi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 29 Deviation: -29 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 20:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +99 s Fehler: -46.2 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 3.2 s Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.31 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 42:10 (4:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 34.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 34	Sawa Ihara JPN	+0 s +3 s	G0 / G3	43:38		Show details Prediction details: Sawa Ihara Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 47–47 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 34 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 19:44 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (16 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 43:38 (4:22 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 19:44 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 38	Yuika Kitani JPN	+60 s +61 s	G4 / G5	42:37		Show details Prediction details: Yuika Kitani Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 38 Deviation: -38 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 20:44 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: -1.4 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 2.8 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 42:37 (4:16 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:44 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 41.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 39	Kotoko Yui JPN	+56 s +102 s	G4 / G5	42:49		Show details Prediction details: Kotoko Yui Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 39 Deviation: -39 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 20:40 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +102 s Fehler: -45.6 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.05 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 42:49 (4:17 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 20:40 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 38.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 40	Yu Noda JPN	+57 s +125 s	G4 / G5	43:06		Show details Prediction details: Yu Noda Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 40 Deviation: -40 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 20:41 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +125 s Fehler: -68.4 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 43:06 (4:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 20:41 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 38.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 44	Shizuka Nakamura JPN	+115 s +227 s	G5 / G7	41:48		Show details Prediction details: Shizuka Nakamura Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 44 Deviation: -44 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +115 s Time: 21:39 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +227 s Fehler: -112.2 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.1 s Gap behind: 4.3 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 41:48 (4:11 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 21:39 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (36.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 96.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 45	Momo Higuchi JPN	+159 s +184 s	G6 / G5	44:39		Show details Prediction details: Momo Higuchi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 45 Deviation: -45 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +159 s Time: 22:23 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +184 s Fehler: -24.6 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 49.4 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.07 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 44:39 (4:28 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 22:23 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:48 (35.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 141.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 46	Yui Sakurai JPN	+142 s +182 s	G5 / G6	44:49		Show details Prediction details: Yui Sakurai Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 46 Deviation: -46 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +142 s Time: 22:06 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +182 s Fehler: -40.2 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 6 (3 people) Speed: 37.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.85 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 44:49 (4:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 22:06 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (36.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 123.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 47	Mai Okamoto JPN	+62 s +180 s	G4 / G5	47:06		Show details Prediction details: Mai Okamoto Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 47 Deviation: -47 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 20:46 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +180 s Fehler: -117.6 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (21 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.8 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 5 (15 people) Speed: 37.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.22 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 47:06 (4:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:46 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:19 (37.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 44.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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