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Elite Women

18.10.2025 Yeongdo-gu, Busan KOR
Race information and calculation basis
2025 KOR Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 80.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.4
Mean swim error26.0 s
Mean bike-speed error3.50 km/h
Correct bike groups4/5
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Details
1 / 1 Gayeon Park
KOR
+27 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		37:05
36:02
 1:41:09
Show details
Prediction details: Gayeon Park

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 21:04
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 20.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 21.1 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:05 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:04 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:38 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 37:05 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:41:09
2 / 2 Hye Rim Jeong
KOR
+23 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		37:54
36:56
 1:41:58
Show details
Prediction details: Hye Rim Jeong

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 21:00
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 22.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:54 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:56 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:00 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:38 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 37:54 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:41:58
3 / 3 Hye Rang Kim
KOR
+21 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		40:35
37:48
 1:44:39
Show details
Prediction details: Hye Rang Kim

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 20:58
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 21.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:35 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:48 (3:47 / km)
Error: +2:47 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:39
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:58 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:38 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 40:35 (4:04 / km)
Total: 1:44:39
4 / 5 Ji Yeon Kim
KOR
+21 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		41:59
39:38
 1:46:03
Show details
Prediction details: Ji Yeon Kim

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 20:58
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 19.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:59 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:38 (3:58 / km)
Error: +2:21 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:58 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:38 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 41:59 (4:12 / km)
Total: 1:46:03
5 / 4 Seoeun Park
KOR
+48 s
+1 s
G2 / G1
 40:00
39:26
 1:48:28
Show details
Prediction details: Seoeun Park

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 21:25
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 46.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 21.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:00 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:26 (3:57 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:28
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 21:25 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:40 (35.5 km/h)
Run: 40:00 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:48:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 21:08
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 17.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.