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Elite Women

29.06.2025 Imekang Beach, Ngiwal State PLW
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Mini Pacific Games Koror. Triathlon

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 29.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 33/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 25.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 37.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.0
Mean swim error45.4 s
Mean bike-speed error2.39 km/h
Correct bike groups1/7
No history9
Within the 80% range37.5 %
Details
1 / 1 Salome De Barthez De Marmorieres
TAH
+62 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 17:53
20:06
 52:28
Show details
Prediction details: Salome De Barthez De Marmorieres

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 12:24
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 62.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 59.0 s
Gap behind: 11.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.55 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 (4:01 / km)
Error: −2:13 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 52:28
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:24 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (35.8 km/h)
Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Total: 52:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:43
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
About 41 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 5 Maidi Susset
TAH
+3 s
+56 s
G1 / G2
 20:50
23:27
 54:44
Show details
Prediction details: Maidi Susset

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 11:25
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -53.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 59.0 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 29.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:27 (4:41 / km)
Error: −2:37 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 54:44
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:25 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.5 km/h)
Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km)
Total: 54:44
3 / 10 Dina Soriano
GUM
+142 s
+181 s
G3 / G4
 27:33
29:52
 1:10:55
Show details
Prediction details: Dina Soriano

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +142 s
Time: 13:44
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +181 s
Fehler: -39.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 40.9 s
Gap behind: 30.6 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:33 (5:31 / km)
Historical basis: 5:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:52 (5:58 / km)
Error: −2:19 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:55
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:44 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 41:00 (29.3 km/h)
Run: 27:33 (5:31 / km)
Total: 1:10:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
About 135 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6 Manamea Schwalger
SAM
+173 s
+215 s
G4 / G4
correct 		25:50
27:29
 1:10:57
Show details
Prediction details: Manamea Schwalger

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +173 s
Time: 14:15
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +215 s
Fehler: -42.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 30.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:50 (5:10 / km)
Historical basis: 5:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:29 (5:30 / km)
Error: −1:39 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:57
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:15 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:14 (28.4 km/h)
Run: 25:50 (5:10 / km)
Total: 1:10:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
About 165.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8 Urlin Mulitalo
SAM
+101 s
+121 s
G3 / G2
 28:34
29:58
 1:11:56
Show details
Prediction details: Urlin Mulitalo

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +101 s
Time: 13:03
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +121 s
Fehler: -20.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 28.0 s
Gap behind: 40.9 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:34 (5:43 / km)
Historical basis: 5:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:58 (6:00 / km)
Error: −1:24 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:56
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:03 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 41:00 (29.3 km/h)
Run: 28:34 (5:43 / km)
Total: 1:11:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
About 94.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 9 Charis Kwong
FIJ
+73 s
+38 s
G3 / G4
 30:14
29:42
 1:13:36
Show details
Prediction details: Charis Kwong

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 12:35
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 35.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.0 s
Gap behind: 28.0 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 28.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:14 (6:03 / km)
Historical basis: 6:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.71 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:42 (5:56 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:13:36
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:35 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 41:00 (29.3 km/h)
Run: 30:14 (6:03 / km)
Total: 1:13:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
About 66.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Melanie Hallie
FRA
+0 s
+121 s
G0 / G2
21:10
Show details
Prediction details: Melanie Hallie

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +121 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:10 (4:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Guenaelle Rauby
TAH
+0 s
+66 s
G1 / G2
21:36
Show details
Prediction details: Guenaelle Rauby

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -66.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:36 (4:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:51 (35.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 4 Clemence Besson Leaud
NCL
+0 s
+57 s
G0 / G2
22:07
Show details
Prediction details: Clemence Besson Leaud

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 29.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:07 (4:25 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Diulareng Keane
PLW
+0 s
+96 s
G0 / G3
28:30
Show details
Prediction details: Diulareng Keane

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:30 (5:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Shawna Brennfleck
NMI
+0 s
+280 s
G0 / G5
29:50
Show details
Prediction details: Shawna Brennfleck

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +280 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:50 (5:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Elengoi Gibbons
PLW
+0 s
+138 s
G0 / G6
31:13
Show details
Prediction details: Elengoi Gibbons

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +138 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 27.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:13 (6:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Terra Allen
NMI
+0 s
+492 s
G0 / G9
27:44
Show details
Prediction details: Terra Allen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +492 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:44 (5:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Jennifer Pulmones
GUM
+0 s
+493 s
G0 / G8
28:25
Show details
Prediction details: Jennifer Pulmones

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +493 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 28.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:25 (5:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Ebiklou Ngiraswei
PLW
+0 s
+508 s
G0 / G9
28:06
Show details
Prediction details: Ebiklou Ngiraswei

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +508 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:06 (5:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Nagi Tenorio
NMI
+0 s
+155 s
G0 / G7
30:27
Show details
Prediction details: Nagi Tenorio

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +155 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 25.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:27 (6:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.