Prediction comparison

Elite Men

18.01.2026 Blue Bay MRI

Race information and calculation basis

2025 MRI Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.01.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 24/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 8.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 58.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.9

Mean swim error156.0 s

Mean bike-speed error2.21 km/h

Correct bike groups2/11

No history1

Within the 80% range41.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Adrien Toulet MRI	+27 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	18:27 18:23	49:55	Show details Prediction details: Adrien Toulet Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 27.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 38.7 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 32.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.20 km/h Running and total Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km) Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 49:55 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:01 (38.7 km/h) Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km) Total: 49:55
2 / 2	Aurelien Ciceron MRI	+156 s +60 s	G2 / G2 correct	19:20 22:25	59:20	Show details Prediction details: Aurelien Ciceron Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +156 s Time: 12:06 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +60 s Fehler: 96.3 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.07 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 31.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 44.3 s Gap behind: 28.4 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.25 km/h Running and total Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:25 (4:29 / km) Error: −3:05 / −0:37 / km Overall prediction: 59:20 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:06 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:23 (31.8 km/h) Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Total: 59:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 125.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Timothee Allet MRI	+59 s +100 s	G2 / G4	25:05		Show details Prediction details: Timothee Allet Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 10:29 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +100 s Fehler: -41.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 31.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 32.0 s Gap behind: 2.0 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 30.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:05 (5:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:23 (31.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 28.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Remi Samouilhan MRI	+61 s +85 s	G2 / G3	30:47		Show details Prediction details: Remi Samouilhan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 10:31 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +85 s Fehler: -24.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 31.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.0 s Gap behind: 51.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 32.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.22 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 30:47 (6:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:23 (31.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 30.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Caesar Marie MRI	+185 s +298 s	G3 / G5	30:08		Show details Prediction details: Caesar Marie Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +185 s Time: 12:35 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +298 s Fehler: -113.3 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 28.4 s Gap behind: 210.3 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 32.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.56 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 30:08 (6:02 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:35 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:01 (29.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 153.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Charles Cartier MRI	+474 s +398 s	G3 / G6	29:52		Show details Prediction details: Charles Cartier Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +474 s Time: 17:24 Pace: 2:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +398 s Fehler: 76.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 79.0 s Gap behind: 296.5 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 30.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.39 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 29:52 (5:58 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 17:24 (2:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:01 (29.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 443.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7	Gerard Chan Kin MRI	+395 s +489 s	G3 / G7	30:44		Show details Prediction details: Gerard Chan Kin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +395 s Time: 16:05 Pace: 2:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +489 s Fehler: -94.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 210.3 s Gap behind: 79.0 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 31.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.48 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 30:44 (6:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 16:05 (2:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:01 (29.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:25 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 340.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +54.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8	Evans Ah Young MRI	+1,040 s +684 s	G4 / G8	27:22		Show details Prediction details: Evans Ah Young Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–11 Top-10 probability: 73 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1,040 s Time: 26:50 Pace: 3:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +684 s Fehler: 356.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 45.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 29.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.93 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 27:22 (5:28 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 26:50 (3:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 45:42 (25.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 1009.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9	Selvyn Thilagen Ramasawmy MRI	+771 s +582 s	G4 / G9	34:41		Show details Prediction details: Selvyn Thilagen Ramasawmy Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–11 Top-10 probability: 73 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +771 s Time: 22:21 Pace: 2:59 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +582 s Fehler: 188.5 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 296.5 s Gap behind: 224.5 s Result: Group 9 (2 people) Speed: 28.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.67 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 34:41 (6:56 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 22:21 (2:59 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 45:42 (25.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 739.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10	Ludovic Hang Hong MRI	+0 s +618 s	G0 / G9	34:45		Show details Prediction details: Ludovic Hang Hong Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 12–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:30 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +618 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (2 people) Speed: 28.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 34:45 (6:57 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Ashwin Kumar Seetaram MRI	+995 s +690 s	G4 / G11	33:14		Show details Prediction details: Ashwin Kumar Seetaram Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–11 Top-10 probability: 55 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +995 s Time: 26:05 Pace: 3:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +690 s Fehler: 305.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 224.5 s Gap behind: 45.1 s Result: Group 11 (1 people) Speed: 25.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.78 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 33:14 (6:39 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 26:05 (3:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 45:42 (25.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:25 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 940.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +54.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12	Vellin Bhurtun MRI	+112 s +507 s	G2 / G10	39:40		Show details Prediction details: Vellin Bhurtun Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +112 s Time: 11:22 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +507 s Fehler: -395.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 31.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 51.0 s Gap behind: 44.3 s Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 24.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.42 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:40 (7:56 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:23 (31.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:25 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 57.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +54.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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