Prediction comparison

Elite Women

18.01.2026 Blue Bay MRI

Race information and calculation basis

2025 MRI Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.01.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 30/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 20.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 40.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.3

Mean swim error111.6 s

Mean bike-speed error2.12 km/h

Correct bike groups1/3

No history2

Within the 80% range0.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Valerie Gerard MRI	+144 s +153 s	G1 / G1 correct	27:28 26:57	1:16:08	Show details Prediction details: Valerie Gerard Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +144 s Time: 14:31 Pace: 1:56 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +153 s Fehler: -9.1 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 103.9 s Gap behind: 726.9 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 29.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.09 km/h Running and total Run: 27:28 (5:30 / km) Historical basis: 5:30 / km Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:57 (5:23 / km) Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:16:08 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:31 (1:56 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 46:16 (25.0 km/h) Run: 27:28 (5:30 / km) Total: 1:16:08
0 / 2	Keira Rajabalee MRI	+40 s +0 s	G1 / G2	31:34		Show details Prediction details: Keira Rajabalee Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 12:47 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 40.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 103.9 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 26.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.61 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:34 (6:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:47 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 46:16 (25.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3	Syona Naiko MRI	+0 s +156 s	G0 / G3	31:14		Show details Prediction details: Syona Naiko Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:07 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +156 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 25.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:14 (6:15 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:07 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Perunjodi Naidoo MRI	+0 s +481 s	G0 / G4	31:26		Show details Prediction details: Perunjodi Naidoo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:07 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +481 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 27.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:26 (6:17 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:07 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Rajini Naidoo Cartier MRI	+871 s +585 s	G2 / G5	33:56		Show details Prediction details: Rajini Naidoo Cartier Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +871 s Time: 26:38 Pace: 3:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +585 s Fehler: 285.8 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 726.9 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 24.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 33:56 (6:47 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 26:38 (3:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 47:25 (25.3 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 13:48 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m About 769.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +100.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total