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Elite Men

31.05.2025 Stein NED
Race information and calculation basis
2025 NED Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 31.05.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 47/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 54.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.1
Mean swim error21.5 s
Mean bike-speed error0.75 km/h
Correct bike groups15/33
No history2
Within the 80% range45.7 %
Details
1 / 9 Richard Murray
NED
+34 s
+65 s
G2 / G3
 14:50
15:21
 45:01
Show details
Prediction details: Richard Murray

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -31.3 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:50 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 14:50 (2:58 / km)
Total: 45:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 18.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Ian Pennekamp
NED
+13 s
+9 s
G1 / G2
 15:05
15:22
 45:14
Show details
Prediction details: Ian Pennekamp

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 3.5 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 8.8 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:56 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Total: 45:14
3 / 10 Nicklas Hogervorst
GER
+40 s
+17 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:27
16:16
 45:38
Show details
Prediction details: Nicklas Hogervorst

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 22.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 45:38
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Total: 45:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 23.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 14 Jorik Van Egdom
NED
+51 s
+50 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:41
16:50
 45:52
Show details
Prediction details: Jorik Van Egdom

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 0.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 45:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Total: 45:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 1 Niels Van Lanen
NED
+31 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 15:54
15:49
 46:05
Show details
Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–16
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Total: 46:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 24 Jeroen Velders
NED
+49 s
+38 s
G2 / G3
 16:15
16:54
 46:26
Show details
Prediction details: Jeroen Velders

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 11.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 46:26
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Total: 46:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 31.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 2 Jesse Cuijpers
NED
+10 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:19
16:15
 46:28
Show details
Prediction details: Jesse Cuijpers

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–12
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:56 (40.1 km/h)
Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Total: 46:28
8 / 4 Hidde Mollee
NED
+24 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 16:19
16:39
 46:30
Show details
Prediction details: Hidde Mollee

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 13.5 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Total: 46:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11 Dorian Horsten
NED
+52 s
+40 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:38
16:15
 46:49
Show details
Prediction details: Dorian Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 12.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 46:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 27.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 12 Siwar Kool
NED
+64 s
+62 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:02
15:30
 46:58
Show details
Prediction details: Siwar Kool

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 46:58
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Total: 46:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +62.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 18 Timo Feenstra
NED
+50 s
+54 s
G2 / G3
 16:47
16:22
 46:58
Show details
Prediction details: Timo Feenstra

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 13–19
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -3.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:58
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: 46:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 5 Valentin Van Wersch
NED
+56 s
+52 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:52
15:32
 47:03
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Van Wersch

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–24
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 4.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Error: +1:20 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 47:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Total: 47:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 3.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +53 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 13 Stijn Jansen
NED
+52 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:58
16:28
 47:09
Show details
Prediction details: Stijn Jansen

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 31.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 47:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 47:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 27.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 6 Rick Van der Knaap
NED
+81 s
+57 s
G3 / G2
 16:29
16:05
 47:25
Show details
Prediction details: Rick Van der Knaap

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 15–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 23.7 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 11.6 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 47:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 18.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +62.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 7 Mats Keulstra
NED
+49 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:21
15:58
 47:32
Show details
Prediction details: Mats Keulstra

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–24
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 16.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 47:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 24.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 20 Wybe Vermeulen
NED
+62 s
+66 s
G2 / G3
 17:26
16:42
 47:37
Show details
Prediction details: Wybe Vermeulen

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 18–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -3.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 47:37
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 47:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 37.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16 Thomas Smans
NED
+92 s
+78 s
G4 / G3
 16:05
16:01
 47:39
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Smans

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.6 s
Gap behind: 35.0 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:39
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:02 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Total: 47:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 30.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +62.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 17 Roel Kwaaitaal
NED
+66 s
+66 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:43
16:17
 47:39
Show details
Prediction details: Roel Kwaaitaal

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Total: 47:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 49.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 21 Sem Lazaroms
NED
+21 s
+13 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:31
17:35
 47:42
Show details
Prediction details: Sem Lazaroms

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 15–22
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 8.3 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.8 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Total: 47:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 4.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 19 Joran Stobbe
NED
+42 s
+53 s
G2 / G3
 17:38
16:34
 47:49
Show details
Prediction details: Joran Stobbe

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -11.2 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: +1:04 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 47:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Total: 47:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 17.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 31 Stijn Koole
NED
+48 s
+20 s
G2 / G3
 18:31
17:24
 48:42
Show details
Prediction details: Stijn Koole

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 20–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 28.3 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Error: +1:07 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 48:42
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Total: 48:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 31.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 26 Lars Van Zessen
NED
+57 s
+37 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:54
18:03
 49:05
Show details
Prediction details: Lars Van Zessen

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 23–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 20.1 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 49:05
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Total: 49:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 0.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +56.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 34 Izak Hanse
NED
+127 s
+120 s
G5 / G5
correct 		16:33
16:32
 49:12
Show details
Prediction details: Izak Hanse

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 24–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +127 s
Time: 10:50
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +120 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 35.0 s
Gap behind: 10.7 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 49:12
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:50 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:20 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 49:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 110.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 28 Lucas Goené
NED
+29 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:05
18:15
 49:16
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Goené

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 24–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -2.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -1.36 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 49:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Total: 49:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 23 Tymon Horsten
POL
+61 s
+29 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:10
17:46
 49:21
Show details
Prediction details: Tymon Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 21–31
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 31.9 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -1.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 49:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:09 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Total: 49:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
26 / 25 Timo Van der Weijden
NED
+159 s
+73 s
G6 / G3
 16:31
16:57
 49:27
Show details
Prediction details: Timo Van der Weijden

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 25–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +159 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: 86.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.6 s
Gap behind: 11.8 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 49:27
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:59 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Total: 49:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 142.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 8 Pim Bakker
NED
+78 s
+60 s
G3 / G2
 19:33
16:06
 50:29
Show details
Prediction details: Pim Bakker

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 28–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +78 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 18.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.2 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -2.04 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Error: +3:27 / +0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 50:29
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Total: 50:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 16 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +62.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 22 Rick Paffen
NED
+177 s
+112 s
G6 / G5
 18:02
15:23
 50:58
Show details
Prediction details: Rick Paffen

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 30–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +177 s
Time: 11:40
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +112 s
Fehler: 65.4 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Error: +2:39 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 50:58
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:40 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:59 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 50:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 115.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +62.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 32 Jesper Boets
NED
+139 s
+59 s
G5 / G3
 19:16
17:30
 51:55
Show details
Prediction details: Jesper Boets

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 30–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +139 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 79.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.11 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 20.6 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: +1:46 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 51:55
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:20 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Total: 51:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 76.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +62.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 33 Jippe Van Drogenbroek
NED
+171 s
+150 s
G6 / G5
 31:28
16:19
 1:04:24
Show details
Prediction details: Jippe Van Drogenbroek

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 33–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +171 s
Time: 11:34
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +150 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.8 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:28 (6:18 / km)
Historical basis: 6:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Error: +15:09 / +3:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:24
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:34 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:59 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 31:28 (6:18 / km)
Total: 1:04:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 154.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Niek Heldoorn
NED
+71 s
+43 s
G3 / G3
correct
16:05
Show details
Prediction details: Niek Heldoorn

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 28.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 7.2 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:35 (40.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 53.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 27 Alex Van Buttingha Wichers
NED
+138 s
+77 s
G5 / G4
16:18
Show details
Prediction details: Alex Van Buttingha Wichers

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +138 s
Time: 11:01
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: 61.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.7 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:01 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:20 (39.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 120.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 29 Bart Cooymans
NED
+9 s
+24 s
G1 / G3
17:31
Show details
Prediction details: Bart Cooymans

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -29

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -15.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:56 (40.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 30 Jeffrey Camphens
BEL
+0 s
+35 s
G0 / G2
18:19
Show details
Prediction details: Jeffrey Camphens

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 34–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:43 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 35 Sander Van Bart
NED
+0 s
+135 s
G0 / G5
16:31
Show details
Prediction details: Sander Van Bart

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 35–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +135 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:43 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.