Prediction comparison

Junior Women

15.03.2025 Devonport AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Oceania Triathlon Championships Devonport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 15.03.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 30/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 19.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 38.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.9

Mean swim error32.4 s

Mean bike-speed error1.12 km/h

Correct bike groups6/15

No history11

Within the 80% range26.9 %

						Details
1 / 1	Aspen Anderson AUS	+32 s +12 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:52 17:03	53:34	Show details Prediction details: Aspen Anderson Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 10:07 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 19.9 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 29 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.2 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 35.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.86 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 53:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:06 (34.2 km/h) Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km) Total: 53:34
2 / 5	Hayley Cornwall NZL	+33 s +14 s	G1 / G1 correct	20:17 18:48	55:59	Show details Prediction details: Hayley Cornwall Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 7–10 Top-10 probability: 94 % Result: 5 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 10:08 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 18.9 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 31 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 84 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 35.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.82 km/h Running and total Run: 20:17 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 32 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km) Error: +1:29 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: 55:59 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:06 (34.2 km/h) Run: 20:17 (4:03 / km) Total: 55:59
3 / 7	Sophie Webber NZL	+14 s +17 s	G1 / G1 correct	20:28 19:19	56:10	Show details Prediction details: Sophie Webber Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 7–10 Top-10 probability: 91 % Result: 7 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: -3.4 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 2.29 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 6.3 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 35.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h Running and total Run: 20:28 (4:06 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:19 (3:52 / km) Error: +1:09 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 56:10 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:06 (34.2 km/h) Run: 20:28 (4:06 / km) Total: 56:10
4 / 13	Grace Henry AUS	+28 s +5 s	G1 / G1 correct	20:30 21:08	56:12	Show details Prediction details: Grace Henry Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 7–11 Top-10 probability: 80 % Result: 13 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 10:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 22.7 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.8 s Gap behind: 4.2 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 34.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h Running and total Run: 20:30 (4:06 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:08 (4:14 / km) Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 56:12 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:06 (34.2 km/h) Run: 20:30 (4:06 / km) Total: 56:12
5 / 10	Gwen Watson AUS	+55 s +15 s	G2 / G4	18:52 18:21	56:36	Show details Prediction details: Gwen Watson Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 7–13 Top-10 probability: 60 % Result: 10 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 10:30 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 39.6 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 47 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 33.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 32.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.07 km/h Running and total Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 32 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:40 / km) Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 56:36 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (33.9 km/h) Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Total: 56:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:16 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 14.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +40.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11	Charli Spies AUS	+12 s +69 s	G1 / G4	20:59 18:28	56:41	Show details Prediction details: Charli Spies Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 10–13 Top-10 probability: 21 % Result: 11 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 9:47 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +69 s Fehler: -57.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 12.0 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 33.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h Running and total Run: 20:59 (4:12 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:28 (3:42 / km) Error: +2:31 / +0:30 / km Overall prediction: 56:41 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:06 (34.2 km/h) Run: 20:59 (4:12 / km) Total: 56:41
7 / 15	Kiara Mooney AUS	+36 s +0 s	G1 / G3	20:59 20:10	56:41	Show details Prediction details: Kiara Mooney Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 10–13 Top-10 probability: 33 % Result: 15 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 10:11 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 36.2 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 44 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 93 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 15.8 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 32.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.27 km/h Running and total Run: 20:59 (4:12 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 32 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:10 (4:02 / km) Error: +0:49 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 56:41 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:06 (34.2 km/h) Run: 20:59 (4:12 / km) Total: 56:41
8 / 14	Abbey Hickey AUS	+121 s +39 s	G2 / G4	19:09 19:25	56:53	Show details Prediction details: Abbey Hickey Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 9–14 Top-10 probability: 21 % Result: 14 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +121 s Time: 11:36 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 81.5 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 46.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 33.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h Running and total Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:25 (3:53 / km) Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 56:53 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:36 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (33.9 km/h) Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km) Total: 56:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:42 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m About 53.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +66.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 6	Hannah Pollock AUS	+74 s +34 s	G2 / G2 correct	19:38 17:44	57:22	Show details Prediction details: Hannah Pollock Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 12–14 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 10:49 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 39.7 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.0 s Gap behind: 46.8 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 33.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h Running and total Run: 19:38 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:44 (3:33 / km) Error: +1:54 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 57:22 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (33.9 km/h) Run: 19:38 (3:56 / km) Total: 57:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:15 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 33.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +40.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 17	Lauren Hanna AUS	+71 s +64 s	G2 / G7	23:39 19:45	1:01:23	Show details Prediction details: Lauren Hanna Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 15–15 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 10:46 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: 6.7 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 12.8 s Gap behind: 3.0 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 31.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.25 km/h Running and total Run: 23:39 (4:44 / km) Historical basis: 4:44 / km Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km) Error: +3:54 / +0:47 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:23 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (33.9 km/h) Run: 23:39 (4:44 / km) Total: 1:01:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:15 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 30.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +40.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	Claire Spicknall AUS	+20 s +12 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:26		Show details Prediction details: Claire Spicknall Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 9:55 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 7.9 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.3 s Gap behind: 7.8 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 34.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:06 (34.2 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3	Ava Henville AUS	+0 s +6 s	G0 / G1	17:30		Show details Prediction details: Ava Henville Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 16–16 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 34.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Addison Houslip AUS	+0 s +1 s	G0 / G1	17:31		Show details Prediction details: Addison Houslip Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 17–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 34.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Caitlyn Garratt AUS	+0 s +39 s	G0 / G3	17:54		Show details Prediction details: Caitlyn Garratt Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 18–18 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 33.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:35 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Isabella Valinoti AUS	+0 s +69 s	G1 / G4	18:15		Show details Prediction details: Isabella Valinoti Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +69 s Fehler: -69.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 12.0 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 33.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:39 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:06 (34.2 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 12	Ella Rayner AUS	+0 s +39 s	G0 / G3	18:54		Show details Prediction details: Ella Rayner Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 19–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 33.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16	Charlotte Chiles NZL	+58 s +39 s	G2 / G4	20:46		Show details Prediction details: Charlotte Chiles Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 16 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 18.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 51 % Speed: 33.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 12.8 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 33.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:46 (4:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (33.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:23 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 10 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +47.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 18	Aurora Jarvis AUS	+0 s +61 s	G1 / G6	20:14		Show details Prediction details: Aurora Jarvis Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 18 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: -61.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 95 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 31.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.32 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:14 (4:03 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:06 (34.2 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 19	Charli Lehmann AUS	+0 s +22 s	G0 / G5	20:43		Show details Prediction details: Charli Lehmann Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 20–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 31.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:43 (4:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20	Charlotte Hussein AUS	+0 s +41 s	G0 / G6	20:54		Show details Prediction details: Charlotte Hussein Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 21–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 31.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:54 (4:11 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21	Gemma Gorton AUS	+0 s +62 s	G0 / G7	21:07		Show details Prediction details: Gemma Gorton Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 22–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 31.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:07 (4:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22	Skye Bell AUS	+0 s +70 s	G0 / G8	20:13		Show details Prediction details: Skye Bell Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 23–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +70 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (3 people) Speed: 30.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:13 (4:03 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23	Madigan Carroll AUS	+0 s +88 s	G0 / G9	19:41		Show details Prediction details: Madigan Carroll Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 24–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +88 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 29.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:41 (3:56 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24	Alea Ord AUS	+52 s +56 s	G2 / G8	21:43		Show details Prediction details: Alea Ord Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 24 Deviation: -24 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -4.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 63 % Speed: 33.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 15.8 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 8 (3 people) Speed: 30.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.60 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:43 (4:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:43 (33.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:26 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 1.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25	Charlee Newman AUS	+0 s +75 s	G0 / G8	22:23		Show details Prediction details: Charlee Newman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 25–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +75 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (3 people) Speed: 30.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:23 (4:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 26	Gabriella Green AUS	+0 s +86 s	G0 / G10	20:56		Show details Prediction details: Gabriella Green Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 26–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +86 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 29.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:56 (4:11 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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