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Prediction comparison

Elite Men

03.10.2025 Hurghada EGY
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Pan-Arab Championships Hurghada

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 03.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.5
Mean swim error11.0 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history0
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Badr Siwane
MAR
+3 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
 16:08
Show details
Prediction details: Badr Siwane

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time:
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Seifeddine Selmi
TUN
+58 s
+39 s
G0 / G2
 16:37
Show details
Prediction details: Seifeddine Selmi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time:
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 19.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:55 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.