Prediction comparison

Elite Women

03.10.2025 Hurghada EGY

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Pan-Arab Championships Hurghada

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 03.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.5

Mean swim error15.8 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Lydia Musleh JOR	+14 s +0 s	G0 / G1	21:04	Show details Prediction details: Lydia Musleh Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 14.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Ergebnis Lauf: 20:51 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Rahma Ahmed EGY	+92 s +107 s	G0 / G2	20:48	Show details Prediction details: Rahma Ahmed Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +92 s Time: Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +107 s Fehler: -15.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 20:48 (4:10 / km) Historical basis: 4:09 / km Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:49 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:48 (4:10 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Lilly Hatem EGY	+87 s +106 s	G0 / G3	23:54	Show details Prediction details: Lilly Hatem Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +87 s Time: Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +106 s Fehler: -19.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 23:54 (4:47 / km) Historical basis: 4:47 / km Best comparable pace: 4:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:49 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 23:54 (4:47 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Shahd Walid EGY	+94 s +109 s	G0 / G4	22:05	Show details Prediction details: Shahd Walid Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +109 s Fehler: -15.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 22:05 (4:25 / km) Historical basis: 4:25 / km Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Ergebnis Lauf: 25:35 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:05 (4:25 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total