Prediction comparison

Elite Men

27.06.2025 Calzada de Amador PAN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 PAN Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 49/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 57.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 57.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.3

Mean swim error29.1 s

Mean bike-speed error2.05 km/h

Correct bike groups3/6

No history1

Within the 80% range57.1 %

						Details
1 / 1	Petter Vega PAN	+30 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:33 15:21	47:17	Show details Prediction details: Petter Vega Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 10:20 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 30.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 76 % Speed: 39.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.4 s Gap behind: 29.0 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km) Error: +1:12 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 47:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:14 (39.5 km/h) Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Total: 47:17
2 / 2	Oliver Batista PAN	+20 s +16 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:55 15:58	48:39	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Batista Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 10:10 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 3.6 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 79 % Speed: 39.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 10.4 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 40.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h Running and total Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km) Error: +1:57 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 48:39 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:14 (39.5 km/h) Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km) Total: 48:39
3 / 3	Eric Anel Acosta Tuñon PAN	+94 s +118 s	G3 / G2	17:46 15:12	52:30	Show details Prediction details: Eric Anel Acosta Tuñon Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: 11:24 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +118 s Fehler: -23.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 35.2 s Gap behind: 9.8 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.94 km/h Running and total Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (3:02 / km) Error: +2:34 / +0:31 / km Overall prediction: 52:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:24 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:37 (36.4 km/h) Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Total: 52:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 70.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5	Iker Batista PAN	+59 s +75 s	G2 / G2 correct	19:30 16:02	52:31	Show details Prediction details: Iker Batista Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 10:49 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +75 s Fehler: -16.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 29.0 s Gap behind: 35.2 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 38.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.80 km/h Running and total Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km) Error: +3:28 / +0:42 / km Overall prediction: 52:31 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:02 (37.5 km/h) Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km) Total: 52:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:14 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 35.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4	Diego Lucero PAN	+127 s +117 s	G3 / G2	17:58 15:14	52:42	Show details Prediction details: Diego Lucero Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +127 s Time: 11:57 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +117 s Fehler: 10.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 23.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.05 km/h Running and total Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:14 (3:03 / km) Error: +2:44 / +0:33 / km Overall prediction: 52:42 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:57 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:37 (36.4 km/h) Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km) Total: 52:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:36 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 81.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +45.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Armando Abaunza PAN	+104 s +13 s	G3 / G1	19:23		Show details Prediction details: Armando Abaunza Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +104 s Time: 11:34 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 91.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 36.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.8 s Gap behind: 23.0 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 40.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.91 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:53 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:34 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:37 (36.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:45 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m About 49.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +54.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7	Abdiel Best PAN	+0 s +132 s	G0 / G3	18:21		Show details Prediction details: Abdiel Best Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +132 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 35.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:40 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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