Prediction comparison

Elite Men

25.10.2025 Playa Shimie, Colón PAN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 PAN Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 28/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 16.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.8

Mean swim error83.2 s

Mean bike-speed error2.65 km/h

Correct bike groups1/5

No history1

Within the 80% range16.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 5	Moises Dan Benzion PAN	+68 s +251 s	G1 / G4	39:58 44:49	1:40:53	Show details Prediction details: Moises Dan Benzion Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 22:12 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +251 s Fehler: -183.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 51.8 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 35.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.48 km/h Running and total Run: 39:58 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 44:49 (4:29 / km) Error: −4:51 / −0:29 / km Overall prediction: 1:40:53 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 22:12 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:47 (39.8 km/h) Run: 39:58 (4:00 / km) Total: 1:40:53
2 / 1	Eric Anel Acosta Tuñon PAN	+120 s +234 s	G2 / G3	37:11 36:42	1:45:41	Show details Prediction details: Eric Anel Acosta Tuñon Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +120 s Time: 23:04 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +234 s Fehler: -114.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.13 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 51.8 s Gap behind: 36.8 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.78 km/h Running and total Run: 37:11 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 36:42 (3:40 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:41 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 23:04 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:54 (36.1 km/h) Run: 37:11 (3:43 / km) Total: 1:45:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 21:30 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m About 93.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	Diego Lucero PAN	+157 s +71 s	G2 / G1	41:21		Show details Prediction details: Diego Lucero Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +157 s Time: 23:41 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +71 s Fehler: 85.6 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 36.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.80 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 41:21 (4:08 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 23:41 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:54 (36.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 21:30 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m About 130.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Armando Abaunza PAN	+22 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	41:40		Show details Prediction details: Armando Abaunza Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 21:26 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 22.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 45.0 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.58 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 41:40 (4:10 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:26 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:47 (39.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 4	Billy Gordon PAN	+67 s +78 s	G1 / G2	43:02		Show details Prediction details: Billy Gordon Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 22:11 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +78 s Fehler: -11.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 39.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 45.0 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.61 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 43:02 (4:18 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:11 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 59:47 (39.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 6	Ariel Best PAN	+0 s +257 s	G0 / G5	47:19		Show details Prediction details: Ariel Best Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 21:04 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +257 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 47:19 (4:44 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 21:04 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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