Prediction comparison

Elite Women

07.06.2025 Faro POR

Race information and calculation basis

2025 POR Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 45/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 87.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.8

Mean swim error86.0 s

Mean bike-speed error1.88 km/h

Correct bike groups6/8

No history0

Within the 80% range25.0 %

						Details
1 / 1	Maria Tomé POR	+53 s +1 s	G1 / G1 correct	34:40 38:40	1:38:07	Show details Prediction details: Maria Tomé Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 20:37 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 52.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 75 % Speed: 38.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.0 s Gap behind: 50.6 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.38 km/h Running and total Run: 34:40 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:40 (3:52 / km) Error: −4:00 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:37 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:34 (38.3 km/h) Run: 34:40 (3:28 / km) Total: 1:38:07
2 / 2	Inês Rico POR	+40 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	41:15 43:51	1:44:42	Show details Prediction details: Inês Rico Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 20:24 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 40.3 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 81 % Speed: 38.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.43 km/h Running and total Run: 41:15 (4:08 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 43:51 (4:23 / km) Error: −2:36 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:24 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:34 (38.3 km/h) Run: 41:15 (4:08 / km) Total: 1:44:42
3 / 3	Matilde Silva Santos POR	+41 s +1 s	G1 / G1 correct	42:10 44:35	1:45:37	Show details Prediction details: Matilde Silva Santos Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 20:25 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 40.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.55 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 51 % Speed: 38.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 9.0 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h Running and total Run: 42:10 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:11 / km Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.96 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 44:35 (4:28 / km) Error: −2:25 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:25 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:34 (38.3 km/h) Run: 42:10 (4:13 / km) Total: 1:45:37
4 / 6	Joana Miranda POR	+130 s +53 s	G2 / G2 correct	40:33 46:30	1:46:05	Show details Prediction details: Joana Miranda Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +130 s Time: 21:54 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: 77.1 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.68 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 38.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 26.5 s Gap behind: 18.1 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.67 km/h Running and total Run: 40:33 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 46:30 (4:39 / km) Error: −5:57 / −0:36 / km Overall prediction: 1:46:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:54 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (38.1 km/h) Run: 40:33 (4:03 / km) Total: 1:46:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:41 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 73.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +56.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Marta Ribeiro POR	+104 s +51 s	G2 / G2 correct	42:57 45:54	1:48:29	Show details Prediction details: Marta Ribeiro Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +104 s Time: 21:28 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +51 s Fehler: 52.6 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 38.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 50.6 s Gap behind: 26.5 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.54 km/h Running and total Run: 42:57 (4:18 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 45:54 (4:35 / km) Error: −2:57 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 1:48:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:28 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (38.1 km/h) Run: 42:57 (4:18 / km) Total: 1:48:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:41 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 46.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +56.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 7	Beatriz Nunes dos Santos POR	+211 s +47 s	G3 / G2	40:24 52:38	1:53:46	Show details Prediction details: Beatriz Nunes dos Santos Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +211 s Time: 23:15 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: 164.1 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.68 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 62.9 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.14 km/h Running and total Run: 40:24 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 52:38 (5:16 / km) Error: −12:14 / −1:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:53:46 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 23:15 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:09:51 (34.4 km/h) Run: 40:24 (4:02 / km) Total: 1:53:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:41 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 154.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +56.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4	Margarida Barao POR	+148 s +29 s	G2 / G2 correct	1:09:20 42:56	2:14:52	Show details Prediction details: Margarida Barao Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +148 s Time: 22:12 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 119.2 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.68 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.1 s Gap behind: 62.9 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 36.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.89 km/h Running and total Run: 1:09:20 (6:56 / km) Historical basis: 7:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:56 (4:18 / km) Error: +26:24 / +2:38 / km Overall prediction: 2:14:52 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 22:12 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:04 (38.1 km/h) Run: 1:09:20 (6:56 / km) Total: 2:14:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:41 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 91.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +56.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8	Beatriz Boal POR	+50 s +193 s	G1 / G4	56:03		Show details Prediction details: Beatriz Boal Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 20:34 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +193 s Fehler: -143.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 74 % Speed: 38.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.0 s Gap behind: 3.0 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 31.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.52 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 56:03 (5:36 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 20:34 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:34 (38.3 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

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