Prediction comparison

Elite Women

23.11.2025 Toa Baja PUR

Race information and calculation basis

2025 PUR Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 23.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 83.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.6

Mean swim error27.5 s

Mean bike-speed error0.41 km/h

Correct bike groups4/5

No history1

Within the 80% range16.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Zoe Adam PUR	+10 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:20 18:46	53:44	Show details Prediction details: Zoe Adam Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 10:08 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 10.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.30 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 36.8 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 27.1 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.27 km/h Running and total Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 2:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km) Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 53:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:14 (36.8 km/h) Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km) Total: 53:44
2 / 3	Isabella Fernandez PUR	+37 s +62 s	G2 / G2 correct	20:37 20:23	57:43	Show details Prediction details: Isabella Fernandez Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 10:35 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +62 s Fehler: -24.9 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 43 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 34.5 km/h Gap ahead: 27.1 s Gap behind: 36.8 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h Running and total Run: 20:37 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 57:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:29 (34.5 km/h) Run: 20:37 (4:07 / km) Total: 57:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 23.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2	Valentina Sofia Negron PUR	+74 s +77 s	G3 / G2	20:37 19:22	57:53	Show details Prediction details: Valentina Sofia Negron Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 11:12 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +77 s Fehler: -3.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 36.8 s Gap behind: 5.5 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 34.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h Running and total Run: 20:37 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:22 (3:52 / km) Error: +1:15 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 57:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:57 (35.0 km/h) Run: 20:37 (4:07 / km) Total: 57:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 60 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6	Daritzamar Estrada PUR	+208 s +152 s	G4 / G4 correct	23:09 24:18	1:08:34	Show details Prediction details: Daritzamar Estrada Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +208 s Time: 13:26 Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +152 s Fehler: 55.7 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 21 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 128.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 29.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.29 km/h Running and total Run: 23:09 (4:38 / km) Historical basis: 4:39 / km Best comparable pace: 4:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:18 (4:52 / km) Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 1:08:34 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 13:26 (1:47 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:57 (30.0 km/h) Run: 23:09 (4:38 / km) Total: 1:08:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 193.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Alejandra Isabel Rodriguez PUR	+79 s +123 s	G3 / G3 correct	20:24		Show details Prediction details: Alejandra Isabel Rodriguez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +79 s Time: 11:17 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +123 s Fehler: -43.6 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.5 s Gap behind: 128.3 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 33.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:24 (4:05 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 11:17 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:57 (35.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 65.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Joyce Batista PUR	+0 s +150 s	G0 / G4	19:43		Show details Prediction details: Joyce Batista Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:58 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +150 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 29.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:43 (3:57 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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Running and total

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