Prediction comparison

Elite Men

01.06.2025 Hallstahammar SWE

Race information and calculation basis

2025 SWE Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 44/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 47.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 56.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.4

Mean swim error33.2 s

Mean bike-speed error1.42 km/h

Correct bike groups2/16

No history7

Within the 80% range17.4 %

						Details
1 / 2	Paul Frayon SWE	+15 s +12 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:21 15:59	46:38	Show details Prediction details: Paul Frayon Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 9:30 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 2.6 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 62 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 78 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 44 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:59 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 46:38 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:58 (40.0 km/h) Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km) Total: 46:38
2 / 3	Oscar Lilja SWE	+18 s +17 s	G1 / G8	16:32 16:46	46:49	Show details Prediction details: Oscar Lilja Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 1.4 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.90 %, Sicherheit 59 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 46 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 19.6 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 40.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h Running and total Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 39 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km) Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 46:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:58 (40.0 km/h) Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km) Total: 46:49
3 / 1	Andreas Carlsson SWE	+38 s +0 s	G2 / G1	15:59 15:30	47:34	Show details Prediction details: Andreas Carlsson Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 38.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 38.8 km/h Gap ahead: 19.6 s Gap behind: 3.0 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 47:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:54 (38.8 km/h) Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km) Total: 47:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 15.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Leon Dahlin SWE	+89 s +52 s	G3 / G3 correct	17:08 17:02	51:07	Show details Prediction details: Leon Dahlin Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +89 s Time: 10:44 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 36.9 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 74 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.9 s Gap behind: 5.2 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 60 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (3:24 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 51:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.6 km/h) Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km) Total: 51:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 66.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8	Noah Petersson SWE	+67 s +41 s	G3 / G9	18:43 18:31	52:42	Show details Prediction details: Noah Petersson Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 8–9 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 8 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: 25.6 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 74 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 25.6 s Gap behind: 5.2 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.39 km/h Running and total Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 60 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:31 (3:42 / km) Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 52:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.6 km/h) Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km) Total: 52:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:38 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 44.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5	Oskar Arvidsson SWE	+72 s +12 s	G3 / G2	18:44 17:39	52:43	Show details Prediction details: Oskar Arvidsson Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 8–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +72 s Time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 59.8 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 46 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.2 s Gap behind: 11.2 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 36 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:32 / km) Error: +1:05 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 52:43 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.6 km/h) Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km) Total: 52:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:38 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 49.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 12	David Tylén SWE	+131 s +93 s	G4 / G13	17:37 17:20	53:50	Show details Prediction details: David Tylén Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 10–12 Top-10 probability: 43 % Result: 12 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +131 s Time: 11:26 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +93 s Fehler: 38.1 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 58 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.2 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 13 (2 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.00 km/h Running and total Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 53:50 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 11:26 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:52 (35.4 km/h) Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km) Total: 53:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 108.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 16	Anton Karlsson SWE	+141 s +91 s	G4 / G5	17:47 19:23	54:00	Show details Prediction details: Anton Karlsson Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 10–13 Top-10 probability: 29 % Result: 16 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +141 s Time: 11:36 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +91 s Fehler: 50.1 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 58 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 16.8 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:53 / km) Error: −1:36 / −0:19 / km Overall prediction: 54:00 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 11:36 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:52 (35.4 km/h) Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km) Total: 54:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 118.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 14	Linus Fredriksson SWE	+94 s +52 s	G3 / G4	20:14 20:54	54:13	Show details Prediction details: Linus Fredriksson Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 10–12 Top-10 probability: 30 % Result: 14 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +94 s Time: 10:49 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 42.1 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 58 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.2 s Gap behind: 18.8 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 20:14 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:03 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:54 (4:11 / km) Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 54:13 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.6 km/h) Run: 20:14 (4:03 / km) Total: 54:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 71.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 6	August Siverskog SWE	+113 s +68 s	G3 / G4	20:50 17:55	54:49	Show details Prediction details: August Siverskog Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 12–13 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +113 s Time: 11:08 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +68 s Fehler: 44.9 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 58 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 18.8 s Gap behind: 18.2 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km) Error: +2:55 / +0:35 / km Overall prediction: 54:49 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:08 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.6 km/h) Run: 20:50 (4:10 / km) Total: 54:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 90.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 15	Luca Roggio SWE	+131 s +72 s	G4 / G13	19:19 9:10	55:32	Show details Prediction details: Luca Roggio Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 14–14 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +131 s Time: 11:26 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +72 s Fehler: 59.1 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 8.9 s Result: Group 13 (2 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.37 km/h Running and total Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:52 / km Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 36 % Ergebnis Lauf: 9:10 (1:50 / km) Error: +10:09 / +2:02 / km Overall prediction: 55:32 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:26 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:52 (35.4 km/h) Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km) Total: 55:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 108.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13	Simon McVitty Östborg SWE	+159 s +112 s	G5 / G6	20:27 9:01	1:03:15	Show details Prediction details: Simon McVitty Östborg Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 15–15 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +159 s Time: 11:54 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +112 s Fehler: 47.1 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 58 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 20:27 (4:05 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 9:01 (1:48 / km) Error: +11:26 / +2:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:03:15 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 11:54 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 40:09 (29.9 km/h) Run: 20:27 (4:05 / km) Total: 1:03:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 136.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 21	Eskil Nilsson SWE	+158 s +126 s	G5 / G7	30:30 27:08	1:13:18	Show details Prediction details: Eskil Nilsson Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 16–16 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +158 s Time: 11:53 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +126 s Fehler: 31.9 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 58 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 16.8 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 30:30 (6:06 / km) Historical basis: 6:07 / km Best comparable pace: 6:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:08 (5:26 / km) Error: +3:22 / +0:40 / km Overall prediction: 1:13:18 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:53 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 40:09 (29.9 km/h) Run: 30:30 (6:06 / km) Total: 1:13:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 135.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7	Tom Honig SWE	+41 s +78 s	G2 / G11	15:50		Show details Prediction details: Tom Honig Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +78 s Fehler: -37.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 38.8 km/h Gap ahead: 3.0 s Gap behind: 25.6 s Result: Group 11 (2 people) Speed: 37.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:10 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:54 (38.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 7.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9	Linus Jansson SWE	+83 s +78 s	G3 / G10	18:32		Show details Prediction details: Linus Jansson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +83 s Time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +78 s Fehler: 5.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.2 s Gap behind: 5.9 s Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.46 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:06 (37.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 49.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10	Felix Perez SWE	+0 s +89 s	G0 / G5	16:50		Show details Prediction details: Felix Perez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 17–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +89 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Niklas Akerström SWE	+140 s +128 s	G4 / G11	18:16		Show details Prediction details: Niklas Akerström Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +140 s Time: 11:35 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +128 s Fehler: 12.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.9 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 11 (2 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.43 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 11:35 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:52 (35.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:49 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 106.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17	Quirin Hirt SWE	+0 s +121 s	G0 / G7	20:25		Show details Prediction details: Quirin Hirt Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 18–18 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +121 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:25 (4:05 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18	Filip Hallin SWE	+0 s +15 s	G0 / G12	21:48		Show details Prediction details: Filip Hallin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 19–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 12 (1 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:48 (4:22 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19	Noah Korall SWE	+0 s +169 s	G0 / G14	21:43		Show details Prediction details: Noah Korall Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 20–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +169 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 14 (1 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:43 (4:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20	Endre Barat SWE	+0 s +147 s	G0 / G15	21:18		Show details Prediction details: Endre Barat Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 21–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +147 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 15 (1 people) Speed: 33.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:18 (4:16 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22	Pedro Merino SWE	+0 s +453 s	G0 / G17	14:23		Show details Prediction details: Pedro Merino Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 22–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +453 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 17 (1 people) Speed: 30.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 14:23 (2:53 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23	Hugo Lagerberg SWE	+0 s +278 s	G0 / G16	24:06		Show details Prediction details: Hugo Lagerberg Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 23–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +278 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 16 (1 people) Speed: 28.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:06 (4:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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