Prediction comparison

Junior Women

01.06.2025 Hallstahammar SWE

Race information and calculation basis

2025 SWE Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 33/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 25.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 25.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.0

Mean swim error15.1 s

Mean bike-speed error0.51 km/h

Correct bike groups0/2

No history6

Within the 80% range62.5 %

						Details
1 / 1	Hanna Månsson SWE	+12 s +0 s	G1 / G2	19:17 18:48	53:14	Show details Prediction details: Hanna Månsson Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 10:29 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 12.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 35.5 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 118.2 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 35.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.55 km/h Running and total Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km) Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 53:14 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:45 (35.5 km/h) Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km) Total: 53:14
2 / 4	Emmy Skånstad SWE	+130 s +112 s	G2 / G5	23:33 22:07	1:03:57	Show details Prediction details: Emmy Skånstad Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +130 s Time: 12:27 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +112 s Fehler: 18.2 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.4 km/h Gap ahead: 118.2 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 31.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.47 km/h Running and total Run: 23:33 (4:43 / km) Historical basis: 4:46 / km Best comparable pace: 4:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:07 (4:25 / km) Error: +1:26 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 1:03:57 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 12:27 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:14 (31.4 km/h) Run: 23:33 (4:43 / km) Total: 1:03:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 114.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	Greta Sjögren SWE	+0 s +21 s	G0 / G4	19:39		Show details Prediction details: Greta Sjögren Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 33.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:39 (3:56 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Amanda Hahne SWE	+0 s +67 s	G0 / G3	24:45		Show details Prediction details: Amanda Hahne Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +67 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:45 (4:57 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Holly Wimelius SWE	+0 s +110 s	G0 / G6	22:03		Show details Prediction details: Holly Wimelius Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +110 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 31.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:03 (4:25 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Alice Birgander SWE	+0 s +167 s	G0 / G6	23:09		Show details Prediction details: Alice Birgander Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +167 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 32.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:09 (4:38 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Vera Nilsson SWE	+0 s +164 s	G0 / G1	24:17		Show details Prediction details: Vera Nilsson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +164 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:17 (4:51 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Alva Lagerberg SWE	+0 s +288 s	G0 / G7	31:39		Show details Prediction details: Alva Lagerberg Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +288 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 23.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:39 (6:20 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

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Running and total

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Placement

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Running and total