Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Repechage 2 Elite Women

22.03.2025 Lievin FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 T1 Indoor Triathlon World Cup Liévin

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.03.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 65/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 90.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 63.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.9
Mean swim error17.1 s
Mean bike-speed error2.49 km/h
Correct bike groups5/11
No history0
Within the 80% range72.7 %
Details
1 / 4 Hasse Fleerackers
BEL
+13 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		3:09
3:30
 7:42
Show details
Prediction details: Hasse Fleerackers

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 2:43
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 11.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:09 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 2.03 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 7:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:43 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:16 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 3:09 (3:09 / km)
Total: 7:42
2 / 2 Tanja Neubert
GER
+25 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 3:01
3:30
 7:46
Show details
Prediction details: Tanja Neubert

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 2:55
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 20.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:01 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.62 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 7:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:55 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:11 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 3:01 (3:01 / km)
Total: 7:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:48
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 7.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Yeva Soroka
UKR
+21 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		3:07
3:29
 7:52
Show details
Prediction details: Yeva Soroka

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 2:51
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 10.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:07 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 2.11 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:29 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 7:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:51 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:11 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 3:07 (3:07 / km)
Total: 7:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:39
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 12.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5 Lara Atkinson
GBR
+22 s
+0 s
G2 / G2
correct 		3:18
3:25
 8:03
Show details
Prediction details: Lara Atkinson

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 2:52
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 22.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:18 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:25 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 8:03
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 2:52 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:11 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 3:18 (3:18 / km)
Total: 8:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:47
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 5.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 9 Sonja De Koning
NED
+16 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 3:30
3:38
 8:03
Show details
Prediction details: Sonja De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 2:46
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 8.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:38 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 8:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:46 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:16 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 3:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 8:03
6 / 3 Jule Behrens
GER
+13 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		3:35
3:28
 8:08
Show details
Prediction details: Jule Behrens

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 2:43
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:35 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.06 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:28 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 8:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:43 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:16 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 3:35 (3:35 / km)
Total: 8:08
7 / 11 Celine Senia
FRA
+34 s
+8 s
G2 / G3
 3:24
3:46
 8:09
Show details
Prediction details: Celine Senia

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 3:04
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 26.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.4 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:24 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:46 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 8:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:04 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:11 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 3:24 (3:24 / km)
Total: 8:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:47
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 17 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 6 Julia Hauser
AUT
+43 s
+11 s
G3 / G2
 3:03
3:26
 8:20
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 3:13
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 31.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:03 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:26 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 8:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:13 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:34 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 3:03 (3:03 / km)
Total: 8:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:47
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 25.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 8 Aniek Mars
NED
+27 s
+15 s
G2 / G2
correct 		3:37
3:35
 8:22
Show details
Prediction details: Aniek Mars

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 2:57
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 7.4 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:37 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -2.42 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:35 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 8:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:57 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:11 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 3:37 (3:37 / km)
Total: 8:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:39
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 18 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 10 Emma Ducreux
FRA
+3 s
+5 s
G1 / G2
 3:52
3:47
 8:25
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Ducreux

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 2:33
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: -2.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.20 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 9.8 s
Result: Group 2 (6 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:52 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:47 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 8:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:33 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:16 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 3:52 (3:52 / km)
Total: 8:25
11 / 1 Hannelore Willen
BEL
+42 s
+4 s
G3 / G1
 3:22
3:28
 8:39
Show details
Prediction details: Hannelore Willen

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 3:12
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 37.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:22 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:28 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 8:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:12 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:34 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 3:22 (3:22 / km)
Total: 8:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:38
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 33.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.