Prediction comparison

Junior Men

04.10.2025 Ayvalık TUR

Race information and calculation basis

2025 TUR Triathlon Junior National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 37/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 33.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.6

Mean swim error27.2 s

Mean bike-speed error4.98 km/h

Correct bike groups1/9

No history3

Within the 80% range16.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Dorukalp Azizoğlu TUR	+28 s +40 s	G1 / G2	17:03 16:53	48:13	Show details Prediction details: Dorukalp Azizoğlu Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 10:07 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -12.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 39.2 km/h Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 3.1 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.05 km/h Running and total Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:53 (3:23 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 48:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:39 (39.2 km/h) Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Total: 48:13
2 / 1	Türker Kemal Kiyak TUR	+20 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	17:25 17:40	48:35	Show details Prediction details: Türker Kemal Kiyak Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 9:59 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 20.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 39.2 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h Running and total Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km) Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 48:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:39 (39.2 km/h) Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Total: 48:35
3 / 7	Mert Derin TUR	+31 s +54 s	G1 / G3	17:57 18:50	49:07	Show details Prediction details: Mert Derin Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 10:10 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: -22.9 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 39.2 km/h Gap ahead: 3.1 s Gap behind: 5.4 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 32.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.35 km/h Running and total Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km) Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 49:07 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:39 (39.2 km/h) Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Total: 49:07
4 / 3	Ahmet Sagıroglu TUR	+45 s +55 s	G3 / G2	17:23 17:40	49:32	Show details Prediction details: Ahmet Sagıroglu Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 10:24 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -9.9 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 38.2 km/h Gap ahead: 6.1 s Gap behind: 7.1 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.84 km/h Running and total Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km) Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 49:32 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:24 (38.2 km/h) Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km) Total: 49:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 11.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 9	Bedirhan Efe Altındiş TUR	+37 s +110 s	G2 / G4	17:55 19:26	49:36	Show details Prediction details: Bedirhan Efe Altındiş Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 10:16 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +110 s Fehler: -73.5 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 29 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 38.7 km/h Gap ahead: 5.4 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 31.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.80 km/h Running and total Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:53 / km) Error: −1:31 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 49:36 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:02 (38.7 km/h) Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km) Total: 49:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 2.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 12	Arda Bayram TUR	+23 s +94 s	G1 / G4	19:28 20:01	50:38	Show details Prediction details: Arda Bayram Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 12 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +94 s Fehler: -70.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 63 % Speed: 39.2 km/h Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 31.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.32 km/h Running and total Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.97 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:01 (4:00 / km) Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 50:38 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:39 (39.2 km/h) Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km) Total: 50:38
7 / 4	Anıl Sayit TUR	+25 s +14 s	G1 / G2	19:28 18:01	50:38	Show details Prediction details: Anıl Sayit Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 11.1 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 38 % Speed: 39.2 km/h Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.52 km/h Running and total Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:36 / km) Error: +1:27 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 50:38 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:39 (39.2 km/h) Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km) Total: 50:38
8 / 6	Hızır Deniz Demirleng TUR	+52 s +55 s	G4 / G3	16:49 17:01	51:51	Show details Prediction details: Hızır Deniz Demirleng Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 3–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 10:31 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -2.8 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Gap ahead: 7.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 32.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.38 km/h Running and total Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:01 (3:24 / km) Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 51:51 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:09 (35.1 km/h) Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km) Total: 51:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 18.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Ilyas Bülbül TUR	+0 s +51 s	G0 / G2	18:24		Show details Prediction details: Ilyas Bülbül Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:39 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +51 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 35.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:24 (3:41 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Ege Berk Keskin TUR	+0 s +58 s	G0 / G5	18:34		Show details Prediction details: Ege Berk Keskin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:39 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 31.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Mert Ertan Cesur TUR	+39 s +61 s	G2 / G4	19:46		Show details Prediction details: Mert Ertan Cesur Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: -22.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 38.7 km/h Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 6.1 s Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 31.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.30 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:46 (3:57 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:02 (38.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 5.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11	Sarp Tuğra Karaali TUR	+0 s +114 s	G0 / G4	20:02		Show details Prediction details: Sarp Tuğra Karaali Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 12–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:39 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +114 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 32.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:02 (4:00 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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