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Junior Men

02.08.2025 Ohio USA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 USA Triathlon Junior National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 02.08.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 38/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 36.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 56.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.7
Mean swim error19.5 s
Mean bike-speed error3.39 km/h
Correct bike groups9/18
No history12
Within the 80% range36.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Blake Bullard
USA
+28 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 15:59
14:18
 46:48
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Bullard

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 28.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.0 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:18 (2:52 / km)
Error: +1:41 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 46:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Total: 46:48
2 / 2 Isaac Lamprecht
USA
+32 s
+44 s
G1 / G2
 16:37
14:41
 47:26
Show details
Prediction details: Isaac Lamprecht

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -11.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 2.20 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 9.2 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:41 (2:56 / km)
Error: +1:56 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 47:26
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Total: 47:26
3 / 13 Peyton Miller
USA
+43 s
+19 s
G2 / G4
 17:09
15:08
 48:41
Show details
Prediction details: Peyton Miller

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 23.7 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.85 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Error: +2:01 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 48:41
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:28 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 48:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7 Evan Mahrous
USA
+14 s
+36 s
G1 / G2
 17:59
15:58
 48:48
Show details
Prediction details: Evan Mahrous

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -22.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.18 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 14.0 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: +2:01 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 48:48
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 48:48
5 / 6 Jake Adler
USA
+56 s
+34 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:18
15:42
 48:50
Show details
Prediction details: Jake Adler

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 48:50
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:28 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 11.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +44.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 20 Eli McWard
USA
+41 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:01
17:59
 49:33
Show details
Prediction details: Eli McWard

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–12
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 20.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.15 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 49:33
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:28 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 49:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 3.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 10 Garrett Gehringer
USA
+49 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:03
16:23
 49:35
Show details
Prediction details: Garrett Gehringer

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Error: +1:40 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 49:35
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:28 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Total: 49:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 12.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 9 Julian Barre
USA
+50 s
+39 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:08
16:19
 49:40
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Barre

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 11.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -2.22 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Error: +1:49 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 49:40
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:28 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 49:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 14.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11 Rohan Takkar
USA
+83 s
+59 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:42
14:59
 50:14
Show details
Prediction details: Rohan Takkar

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–14
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +83 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 23.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 8.0 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: +1:43 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 50:14
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:09 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Total: 50:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 50.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 16 Lucas Brighty
USA
+58 s
+58 s
G2 / G3
 18:53
16:05
 50:25
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Brighty

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Error: +2:48 / +0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 50:25
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:28 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Total: 50:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 13.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +44.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 14 Elliot Hamilton
USA
+51 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:00
17:41
 50:32
Show details
Prediction details: Elliot Hamilton

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 17.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: +1:19 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 50:32
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:28 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Total: 50:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 14.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 5 Yan Berezitsky
USA
+77 s
+45 s
G3 / G2
 17:10
15:37
 50:42
Show details
Prediction details: Yan Berezitsky

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–14
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 31.6 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -2.37 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 50:42
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:09 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 50:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 44.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 12 Matteo Somma
USA
+77 s
+43 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:18
15:15
 50:50
Show details
Prediction details: Matteo Somma

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 6–15
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 33.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Error: +2:03 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 50:50
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:09 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 50:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 44.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 18 Wills Gillis
USA
+64 s
+80 s
G2 / G4
 19:22
15:35
 50:54
Show details
Prediction details: Wills Gillis

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: -15.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 11.9 s
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Error: +3:47 / +0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 50:54
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:28 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Total: 50:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 19.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +44.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 23 Luke McIntyre
BAR
+76 s
+56 s
G3 / G4
 18:29
16:05
 52:01
Show details
Prediction details: Luke McIntyre

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–16
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 20.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Error: +2:24 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 52:01
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:09 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Total: 52:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 44.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 3 Graham Hummel
USA
+79 s
+40 s
G3 / G2
 19:07
15:07
 52:39
Show details
Prediction details: Graham Hummel

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 39.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.44 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Error: +4:00 / +0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 52:39
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:09 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Total: 52:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 47.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 17 Sam Binder
USA
+103 s
+113 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:02
15:37
 52:56
Show details
Prediction details: Sam Binder

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 16–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 10:56
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +113 s
Fehler: -10.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Error: +2:25 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 52:56
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:56 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:11 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 52:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 70.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 27 Colin Hallmark
USA
+91 s
+79 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:26
16:29
 53:20
Show details
Prediction details: Colin Hallmark

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 16–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: 11.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.0 s
Gap behind: 12.0 s
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Error: +1:57 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 53:20
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:11 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Total: 53:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 58.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Nathanael Hamilton
USA
+0 s
+47 s
G0 / G1
15:34
Show details
Prediction details: Nathanael Hamilton

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Clark Steffen
USA
+0 s
+39 s
G0 / G2
16:01
Show details
Prediction details: Clark Steffen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Jackson Foster
USA
+0 s
+72 s
G0 / G3
16:00
Show details
Prediction details: Jackson Foster

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19 Jett Ford
USA
+0 s
+71 s
G0 / G4
15:52
Show details
Prediction details: Jett Ford

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21 Nate Lugo
USA
+0 s
+83 s
G0 / G4
15:40
Show details
Prediction details: Nate Lugo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22 Logan Jones
USA
+0 s
+57 s
G0 / G4
15:54
Show details
Prediction details: Logan Jones

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24 Wiley Mulholland
USA
+0 s
+87 s
G0 / G4
16:06
Show details
Prediction details: Wiley Mulholland

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +87 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 25 Jay Throckmorton
USA
+0 s
+105 s
G0 / G4
16:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jay Throckmorton

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +105 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 26 Ben Berger
USA
+0 s
+54 s
G0 / G4
16:22
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Berger

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 28 Noah Kaminstein
USA
+0 s
+85 s
G0 / G4
16:46
Show details
Prediction details: Noah Kaminstein

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 29 Miles Harbert
USA
+0 s
+88 s
G0 / G4
16:56
Show details
Prediction details: Miles Harbert

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (13 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 30 Luke Kovak
USA
+0 s
+55 s
G0 / G3
17:43
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Kovak

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 30–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.