Prediction comparison
20-24 Female AG
16.10.2025
Wollongong
AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Age-Group Aquabike Championships Wollongong
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Add missing course distances
The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.
Prediction model used
Modell v14
Default values
Prediction quality
20/100
sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error108.0 s
Mean bike-speed error0.46 km/h
Correct bike groups0/1
No history2
Within the 80% range33.3 %
| Place Prediction / result |
Athlete | Swimming Prediction / result |
Bike group Prediction / result |
Run Prediction / result |
Overall prediction | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 2 |
Harriet Trubshaw
IRL
|
+10 s
+118 s
|
G1 / G2
|
1:05:35 | 2:23:04 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 24:13
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +118 s
Fehler: -108.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h
Running and totalRun: 1:05:35 (6:34 / km)
Historical basis: 6:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 2:23:04
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
24:13
(1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
1:17:19
(31.0 km/h)
Run:
1:05:35
(6:34 / km)
Total:
2:23:04
|
| 0 / 1 |
Lauren Myers
AUS
|
+0 s
+38 s
|
G0 / G1
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:03
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
24:03
(1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
||
| 0 / 3 |
Kate Brush
USA
|
+0 s
+0 s
|
G0 / G3
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 24:03
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 28.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
24:03
(1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|