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Prediction comparison

35-39 Female AG

16.10.2025 Wollongong AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Age-Group Aquabike Championships Wollongong

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.0
Mean swim error197.9 s
Mean bike-speed error2.99 km/h
Correct bike groups0/4
No history11
Within the 80% range26.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Alexandra Bojarski-Stauffer
USA
+252 s
+218 s
G1 / G5
 54:48 2:23:53
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandra Bojarski-Stauffer

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +252 s
Time: 31:51
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +218 s
Fehler: 34.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 28.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 43.1 s
Gap behind: 189.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 54:48 (5:29 / km)
Historical basis: 5:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 2:23:53
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 31:51 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:53 (28.1 km/h)
Run: 54:48 (5:29 / km)
Total: 2:23:53
2 / 11 Sandy Labrecque
CAN
+209 s
+446 s
G1 / G9
 1:27:09 2:56:14
Show details
Prediction details: Sandy Labrecque

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +209 s
Time: 31:08
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +446 s
Fehler: -236.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 28.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 43.1 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:27:09 (8:43 / km)
Historical basis: 8:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 2:56:14
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 31:08 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:53 (28.1 km/h)
Run: 1:27:09 (8:43 / km)
Total: 2:56:14
0 / 1 Bec Stedman
AUS
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Bec Stedman

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Carina Lewis
AUS
+0 s
+24 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Carina Lewis

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Jodie Charlene Wilkes
GBR
+0 s
+268 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Jodie Charlene Wilkes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +268 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Jennifer Bogdanoff
USA
+0 s
+193 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Jennifer Bogdanoff

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +193 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Megan Hay-Smith
AUS
+0 s
+180 s
G0 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Megan Hay-Smith

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +180 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Harmony Ross
AUS
+743 s
+455 s
G3 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Harmony Ross

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +743 s
Time: 40:02
Pace: 2:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +455 s
Fehler: 288.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 301.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 40:02 (2:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:36:00 (25.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 31:55
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
About 487.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +256.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Emma Pocock
AUS
+442 s
+210 s
G2 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Pocock

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +442 s
Time: 35:01
Pace: 2:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +210 s
Fehler: 232.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 189.8 s
Gap behind: 301.3 s
Result: Group 8 (3 people)
Speed: 29.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 35:01 (2:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:23:00 (28.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 34:12
Pace: 2:17 / 100 m
About 49.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +392.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Harriet Steele
NZL
+0 s
+449 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Harriet Steele

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +449 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (3 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Elissa Hughes
AUS
+0 s
+189 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Elissa Hughes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +189 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (3 people)
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Roksana Orzyszek
POL
+0 s
+953 s
G0 / G10
Show details
Prediction details: Roksana Orzyszek

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +953 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Prudence Guest
AUS
+0 s
+200 s
G0 / G11
Show details
Prediction details: Prudence Guest

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +200 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 27.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Carla Taylor
AUS
+0 s
+642 s
G0 / G12
Show details
Prediction details: Carla Taylor

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +642 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Amanda Bergan
AUS
+0 s
+925 s
G0 / G13
Show details
Prediction details: Amanda Bergan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 27:39
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +925 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 27:39 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.