Prediction comparison

70-74 Female AG

16.10.2025 Wollongong AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Age-Group Aquabike Championships Wollongong

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 31/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 22.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 55.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.3

Mean swim error158.9 s

Mean bike-speed error1.49 km/h

Correct bike groups0/8

No history1

Within the 80% range11.1 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Susan Griffin-Kaklikian USA	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G2	1:16:49	2:33:15	Show details Prediction details: Susan Griffin-Kaklikian Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 25:52 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 0 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 31.4 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 119.0 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 29.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.69 km/h Running and total Run: 1:16:49 (7:41 / km) Historical basis: 7:53 / km Best comparable pace: 5:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 0 % Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 2:33:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 25:52 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:16:26 (31.4 km/h) Run: 1:16:49 (7:41 / km) Total: 2:33:15
2 / 3	Maggie Riley-Hagan USA	+120 s +291 s	G2 / G3	1:10:56	2:41:33	Show details Prediction details: Maggie Riley-Hagan Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +120 s Time: 27:52 Pace: 1:51 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +291 s Fehler: -171.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 117.5 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 30.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h Running and total Run: 1:10:56 (7:06 / km) Historical basis: 6:55 / km Best comparable pace: 6:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 0 % Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 2:41:33 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 27:52 (1:51 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:44 (28.1 km/h) Run: 1:10:56 (7:06 / km) Total: 2:41:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 25:56 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m About 116 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 6	Sharon Prutton NZL	+353 s +1063 s	G2 / G6	1:20:03	2:50:40	Show details Prediction details: Sharon Prutton Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +353 s Time: 31:45 Pace: 2:07 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1063 s Fehler: -709.6 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 116.0 s Gap behind: 135.6 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 29.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.95 km/h Running and total Run: 1:20:03 (8:00 / km) Historical basis: 8:00 / km Best comparable pace: 5:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 2:50:40 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 31:45 (2:07 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:44 (28.1 km/h) Run: 1:20:03 (8:00 / km) Total: 2:50:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 25:56 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m About 349.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1	Mandy Meredith AUS	+119 s +310 s	G2 / G1			Show details Prediction details: Mandy Meredith Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +119 s Time: 27:51 Pace: 1:51 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +310 s Fehler: -191.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 28.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 119.0 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.24 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 27:51 (1:51 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:44 (28.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 27:48 Pace: 1:51 / 100 m About 3.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +115.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Hilary Webb GBR	+237 s +302 s	G2 / G4			Show details Prediction details: Hilary Webb Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +237 s Time: 29:49 Pace: 1:59 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +302 s Fehler: -64.6 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 117.5 s Gap behind: 116.0 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 27.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.65 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 29:49 (1:59 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:44 (28.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 25:56 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m About 233.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Janet Gorst AUS	+0 s +373 s	G0 / G5			Show details Prediction details: Janet Gorst Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 25:52 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +373 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 25.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 25:52 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Jan Talbot USA	+489 s +536 s	G3 / G7			Show details Prediction details: Jan Talbot Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +489 s Time: 34:01 Pace: 2:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +536 s Fehler: -47.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 135.6 s Gap behind: 283.0 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 25.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.19 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 34:01 (2:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:31:17 (25.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 25:56 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m About 485.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8	Lyndsay Gough NZL	+904 s +970 s	G4 / G8			Show details Prediction details: Lyndsay Gough Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +904 s Time: 40:56 Pace: 2:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +970 s Fehler: -66.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 131.9 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 24.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 40:56 (2:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:36:00 (25.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 25:56 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m About 900 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9	Charris June Towne USA	+772 s +794 s	G3 / G9			Show details Prediction details: Charris June Towne Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +772 s Time: 38:44 Pace: 2:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +794 s Fehler: -22.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 283.0 s Gap behind: 131.9 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 23.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.94 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 38:44 (2:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:31:17 (25.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 27:47 Pace: 1:51 / 100 m About 657.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +114.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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