Prediction comparison

75-79 Female AG

27.06.2025 Pontevedra ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 8/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 16.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.5

Mean swim error172.1 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

					Details
0 / 1	Colleen Burns USA	+0 s +0 s	Bike DNF	12:08 24:57	Show details Prediction details: Colleen Burns Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 19:56 Pace: 2:00 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 12:08 (4:51 / km) Historical basis: 4:51 / km Best comparable pace: 4:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:57 (9:59 / km) Error: −12:49 / −5:08 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:56 (2:00 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 12:08 (4:51 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Cande Olsen USA	+270 s +293 s	Bike DNF	14:42 32:00	Show details Prediction details: Cande Olsen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +270 s Time: 24:26 Pace: 2:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +293 s Fehler: -23.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 14:42 (5:53 / km) Historical basis: 5:53 / km Best comparable pace: 5:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 32:00 (12:48 / km) Error: −17:18 / −6:55 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 24:26 (2:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 14:42 (5:53 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Judith Reiberg USA	+291 s +327 s	Bike DNF	15:12 34:15	Show details Prediction details: Judith Reiberg Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +291 s Time: 24:47 Pace: 2:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +327 s Fehler: -36.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 15:12 (6:05 / km) Historical basis: 6:05 / km Best comparable pace: 6:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:15 (13:42 / km) Error: −19:03 / −7:37 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 24:47 (2:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 15:12 (6:05 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Shirley Jean Rolston NZL	+804 s +342 s	Bike DNF	16:45 36:06	Show details Prediction details: Shirley Jean Rolston Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +804 s Time: 33:20 Pace: 3:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +342 s Fehler: 461.7 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 16:45 (6:42 / km) Historical basis: 6:42 / km Best comparable pace: 6:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:06 (14:26 / km) Error: −19:21 / −7:44 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 33:20 (3:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:45 (6:42 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Annie Sidgwick GBR	+114 s +474 s	Bike DNF	39:31	Show details Prediction details: Annie Sidgwick Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +114 s Time: 21:50 Pace: 2:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +474 s Fehler: -360.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:31 (15:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:50 (2:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Sarah Artese USA	+1,001 s +850 s	Bike DNF	19:32 45:09	Show details Prediction details: Sarah Artese Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1,001 s Time: 36:37 Pace: 3:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +850 s Fehler: 151.4 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:32 (7:49 / km) Historical basis: 7:49 / km Best comparable pace: 7:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 45:09 (18:04 / km) Error: −25:37 / −10:15 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 36:37 (3:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:32 (7:49 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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