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Elite Women

19.10.2025 Wollongong AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Championship Finals Wollongong

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 69/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 97.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.9
Mean swim error18.3 s
Mean bike-speed error2.66 km/h
Correct bike groups15/35
No history0
Within the 80% range48.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Emma Lombardi
FRA
+16 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		33:24
34:23
 1:32:47
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Lombardi

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 18:50
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 248 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:24 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 249 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:23 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:50 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 33:24 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:32:47
2 / 1 Lisa Tertsch
GER
+10 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		33:27
33:56
 1:32:50
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Tertsch

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 18:44
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 7.7 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 370 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:27 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 371 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:56 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:44 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 33:27 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:32:50
3 / 16 Beth Potter
GBR
+28 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 33:26
36:10
 1:33:12
Show details
Prediction details: Beth Potter

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 19:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 20.6 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 294 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:26 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 295 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:10 (3:37 / km)
Error: −2:44 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 33:26 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:33:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7 Taylor Spivey
USA
+20 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 34:01
33:51
 1:33:24
Show details
Prediction details: Taylor Spivey

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 18:54
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 306 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 307 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:51 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:33:24
5 / 4 Leonie Periault
FRA
+35 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:11
33:27
 1:33:57
Show details
Prediction details: Leonie Periault

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–16
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 19:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 287 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:11 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 302 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:27 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 34:11 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:33:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 14.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 2 Bianca Seregni
ITA
+16 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:36
34:09
 1:33:59
Show details
Prediction details: Bianca Seregni

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 18:50
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 12.1 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 289 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:36 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 290 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:09 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:50 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:36 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:33:59
7 / 21 Jeanne Lehair
LUX
+23 s
+39 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:15
36:16
 1:34:01
Show details
Prediction details: Jeanne Lehair

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 18:57
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -16.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 313 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:15 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 314 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:16 (3:38 / km)
Error: −2:01 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:57 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 34:15 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:34:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 2.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 10 Jolien Vermeylen
BEL
+18 s
+35 s
G1 / G2
 34:39
34:00
 1:34:02
Show details
Prediction details: Jolien Vermeylen

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 18:52
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -16.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 362 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:39 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 361 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:00 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:52 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:39 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:34:02
9 / 6 Diana Isakova
AIN
+37 s
+36 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:40
33:41
 1:34:26
Show details
Prediction details: Diana Isakova

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–19
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 19:11
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:40 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:41 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:59 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:11 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 34:40 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:34:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 25 Olivia Mathias
GBR
+8 s
+22 s
G1 / G2
 35:13
37:12
 1:34:36
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Mathias

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–14
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -14.0 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 210 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:13 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 210 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:12 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:59 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:42 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 35:13 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:34:36
11 / 5 Jessica Fullagar
GBR
+13 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:21
34:33
 1:34:44
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Fullagar

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–15
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 18:47
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:21 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:33 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:47 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 35:21 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:34:44
12 / 8 Anna Godoy Contreras
ESP
+32 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:03
33:52
 1:34:49
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Godoy Contreras

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 19:06
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 7.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 367 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:03 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 368 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:52 (3:23 / km)
Error: +1:11 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:06 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 35:03 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:34:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 18 Sophie Linn
AUS
+27 s
+49 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:08
35:16
 1:34:54
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Linn

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–18
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 19:01
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -22.0 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 177 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:08 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 176 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:16 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:01 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 35:08 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:34:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 22 Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal
MEX
+22 s
+36 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:23
36:22
 1:35:09
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–20
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 18:56
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -13.6 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 323 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:23 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 323 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:22 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:56 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 35:23 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:35:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 1.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 24 Kirsten Kasper
USA
+35 s
+15 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:28
36:40
 1:35:14
Show details
Prediction details: Kirsten Kasper

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 19:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 20.1 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 233 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:28 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 234 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:40 (3:40 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 35:28 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:35:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 14.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17 Djenyfer Arnold
BRA
+33 s
+45 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:52
35:07
 1:35:38
Show details
Prediction details: Djenyfer Arnold

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–26
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 19:07
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -11.9 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 256 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:52 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 254 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:07 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:07 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 35:52 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:35:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 12.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 32 Barbara De Koning
NED
+27 s
+101 s
G2 / G3
 35:58
36:34
 1:35:44
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 19:01
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +101 s
Fehler: -73.6 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 204 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:58 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 205 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:34 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:01 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 35:58 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:35:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 12 Sian Rainsley
GBR
+26 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:02
34:42
 1:35:48
Show details
Prediction details: Sian Rainsley

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 14–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 19:00
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 182 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:42 (3:28 / km)
Error: +1:20 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:00 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 36:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:35:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 4.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 34 Erika Ackerlund
USA
+33 s
+62 s
G2 / G3
 36:04
38:22
 1:35:50
Show details
Prediction details: Erika Ackerlund

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 14–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 19:07
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: -29.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 263 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:04 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 262 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:22 (3:50 / km)
Error: −2:18 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:07 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 36:04 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:35:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 27 Yuko Takahashi
JPN
+38 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:31
37:28
 1:36:17
Show details
Prediction details: Yuko Takahashi

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 2.9 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 366 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:31 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 367 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:28 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:12 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 36:31 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:36:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 17 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 30 Emy Legault
CAN
+33 s
+65 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:37
38:19
 1:36:23
Show details
Prediction details: Emy Legault

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 15–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 19:07
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -31.6 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 287 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:37 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 283 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:19 (3:50 / km)
Error: −1:42 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:07 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 36:37 (3:40 / km)
Total: 1:36:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 12.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 20 Maria Tomé
POR
+47 s
+49 s
G3 / G2
 35:12
35:36
 1:36:32
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Tomé

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 13–28
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 19:21
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 243 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:12 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 242 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:36 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:21 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:29 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 35:12 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:36:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 26.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 15 Gina Sereno
USA
+44 s
+32 s
G3 / G2
 35:34
34:53
 1:36:54
Show details
Prediction details: Gina Sereno

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 11–28
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 19:18
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 238 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:34 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 233 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:53 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:18 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:29 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 35:34 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:36:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 22.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 11 Tilly Anema
GBR
+74 s
+0 s
G4 / G2
 34:45
34:35
 1:36:56
Show details
Prediction details: Tilly Anema

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 19–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 19:48
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 74.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.1 s
Gap behind: 16.1 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:45 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:35 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:48 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:57 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 34:45 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:36:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 53.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 23 Eva Goodisson
NZL
+20 s
+50 s
G1 / G2
 37:35
36:22
 1:36:58
Show details
Prediction details: Eva Goodisson

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 17–31
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 18:54
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -30.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:35 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:22 (3:38 / km)
Error: +1:13 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 37:35 (3:46 / km)
Total: 1:36:58
26 / 9 Tanja Neubert
GER
+56 s
+65 s
G4 / G2
 34:55
33:54
 1:37:06
Show details
Prediction details: Tanja Neubert

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 16–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 19:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -9.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 195 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:55 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 193 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:57 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 34:55 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:37:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 35 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 26 Tereza Zimovjanova
CZE
+50 s
+35 s
G3 / G2
 36:06
37:11
 1:37:26
Show details
Prediction details: Tereza Zimovjanova

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 19–32
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 19:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 15.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 252 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:06 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 251 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:11 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:05 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:24 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:29 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 36:06 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:37:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 29.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 19 Danielle Orie
USA
+51 s
+35 s
G3 / G2
 36:17
35:12
 1:37:37
Show details
Prediction details: Danielle Orie

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 20–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 19:25
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 15.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:17 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:12 (3:31 / km)
Error: +1:05 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:25 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:29 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 36:17 (3:38 / km)
Total: 1:37:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 30 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 14 Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto
COL
+58 s
+37 s
G4 / G2
 36:00
34:51
 1:38:11
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 20–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:51 (3:29 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:57 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 36:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:38:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 37 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 13 Miriam Casillas García
ESP
+59 s
+37 s
G4 / G2
 36:12
34:49
 1:38:23
Show details
Prediction details: Miriam Casillas García

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 23–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 19:33
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 21.9 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 326 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 15.1 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:12 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 327 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:49 (3:29 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:33 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:57 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 36:12 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:38:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 38 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 28 Erica Hawley
BER
+51 s
+64 s
G3 / G2
 37:03
37:38
 1:38:23
Show details
Prediction details: Erica Hawley

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 21–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 19:25
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -13.3 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 177 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:03 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 173 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:38 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:25 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:29 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 37:03 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:38:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 29.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 31 Valentina Riasova
AIN
+90 s
+58 s
G5 / G3
 35:59
35:22
 1:38:37
Show details
Prediction details: Valentina Riasova

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 27–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +90 s
Time: 20:04
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 32.1 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:22 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:04 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:08 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 35:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:38:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 69.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 35 Kanae Takenaka
JPN
+25 s
+9 s
G2 / G3
 39:49
40:18
 1:39:35
Show details
Prediction details: Kanae Takenaka

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 31–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 18:59
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 15.7 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:49 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:18 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:59 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:08 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 39:49 (3:59 / km)
Total: 1:39:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 3.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 29 Emma Jeffcoat
AUS
+7 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 40:18
37:59
 1:39:41
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Jeffcoat

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 33–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 18:41
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -10.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 160 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (26 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:18 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:59 (3:48 / km)
Error: +2:19 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:41 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 40:18 (4:02 / km)
Total: 1:39:41
35 / 33 Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez
MEX
+58 s
+101 s
G4 / G3
 37:39
36:35
 1:39:50
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 32–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +101 s
Fehler: -42.8 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:39 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:35 (3:40 / km)
Error: +1:04 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:57 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 37:39 (3:46 / km)
Total: 1:39:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 37.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.