Prediction comparison

45-49 Female AG

26.06.2025 Pontevedra ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 11/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 22.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 33.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.7

Mean bike-speed error13.57 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history3

					Details
0 / 1	Monika Dorfner AUT	+54 s	G0 / G1	30:24 29:21	Show details Prediction details: Monika Dorfner Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: Pace: 1:49 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 16.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -16.65 km/h Running and total Run: 30:24 (5:14 / km) Historical basis: 5:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 29:21 (9:10 / km) Error: +1:03 / −3:56 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 30:24 (5:14 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	María Bohórquez Vez ESP	+0 s	G0 / G2	25:40	Show details Prediction details: María Bohórquez Vez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 15.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:40 (8:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Karen Heppenstall GBR	+110 s	G0 / G3	30:46 27:59	Show details Prediction details: Karen Heppenstall Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +110 s Time: Pace: 1:54 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 14.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -14.36 km/h Running and total Run: 30:46 (5:18 / km) Historical basis: 5:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:59 (8:45 / km) Error: +2:47 / −3:26 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 30:46 (5:18 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Eva Maria Arguelles Beltrán ESP	+0 s	G0 / G4	33:50 28:50	Show details Prediction details: Eva Maria Arguelles Beltrán Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 14.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -14.29 km/h Running and total Run: 33:50 (5:50 / km) Historical basis: 5:50 / km Best comparable pace: 5:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 28:50 (9:01 / km) Error: +5:00 / −3:11 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 33:50 (5:50 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Karina Kaufmann GBR	+477 s	G0 / G5	34:15 29:20	Show details Prediction details: Karina Kaufmann Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +477 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 12.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -12.84 km/h Running and total Run: 34:15 (5:54 / km) Historical basis: 5:54 / km Best comparable pace: 5:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 29:20 (9:10 / km) Error: +4:55 / −3:16 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:15 (5:54 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Jayne Rutter AUS	+549 s	G0 / G6	36:59 34:38	Show details Prediction details: Jayne Rutter Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +549 s Time: Pace: 2:38 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 13.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -13.27 km/h Running and total Run: 36:59 (6:23 / km) Historical basis: 6:23 / km Best comparable pace: 6:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:38 (10:49 / km) Error: +2:21 / −4:27 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 36:59 (6:23 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Sophie Bruce GBR	+0 s	G0 / G7	31:13	Show details Prediction details: Sophie Bruce Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 12.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:13 (9:45 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Laura Lakin GBR	+0 s	G0 / G8	35:16	Show details Prediction details: Laura Lakin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 12.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 35:16 (11:01 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Erin Pettyjohn USA	+144 s	G0 / G9	25:49 30:16	Show details Prediction details: Erin Pettyjohn Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +144 s Time: Pace: 2:08 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 10.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -10.03 km/h Running and total Run: 25:49 (4:27 / km) Historical basis: 4:27 / km Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 30:16 (9:28 / km) Error: −4:27 / −5:01 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 25:49 (4:27 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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