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45-49 Female AG

24.06.2025 Pontevedra ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 24.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.1
Mean swim error185.5 s
Mean bike-speed error13.15 km/h
Correct bike groups1/7
No history3
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Details
1 / 2 Monika Dorfner
AUT
+107 s
+54 s
G1 / G2
 36:54
40:32
 1:40:45
Show details
Prediction details: Monika Dorfner

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +107 s
Time: 17:36
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 53.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 92.4 s
Gap behind: 8.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 17.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:54 (4:51 / km)
Historical basis: 4:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:32 (5:20 / km)
Error: −3:38 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:36 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:36 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 36:54 (4:51 / km)
Total: 1:40:45
2 / 1 Carole Perrot
SUI
+15 s
+90 s
G1 / G1
correct 		37:44
38:19
 1:41:35
Show details
Prediction details: Carole Perrot

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 16:04
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +90 s
Fehler: -75.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.7 s
Gap behind: 92.4 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 17.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:44 (4:58 / km)
Historical basis: 5:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:19 (5:03 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:35
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:04 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:36 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 37:44 (4:58 / km)
Total: 1:41:35
3 / 4 Eleanor Williams
GBR
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G4
 41:00
43:09
 1:44:51
Show details
Prediction details: Eleanor Williams

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 14.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:00 (5:24 / km)
Historical basis: 5:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:09 (5:41 / km)
Error: −2:09 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:51
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 15:49 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:36 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 41:00 (5:24 / km)
Total: 1:44:51
4 / 3 Karen Heppenstall
GBR
+115 s
+110 s
G1 / G3
 43:33
41:32
 1:47:24
Show details
Prediction details: Karen Heppenstall

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time: 17:44
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +110 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.0 s
Gap behind: 319.7 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 16.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 11.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:33 (5:44 / km)
Historical basis: 5:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:32 (5:28 / km)
Error: +2:01 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:47:24
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:44 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:36 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 43:33 (5:44 / km)
Total: 1:47:24
5 / 5 Jayne Rutter
AUS
+435 s
+549 s
G1 / G6
 51:53
49:21
 1:55:44
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Prediction details: Jayne Rutter

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +435 s
Time: 23:04
Pace: 2:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +549 s
Fehler: -114.2 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 319.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 13.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 14.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:53 (6:50 / km)
Historical basis: 6:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:21 (6:30 / km)
Error: +2:32 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:55:44
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 23:04 (2:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:36 (27.8 km/h)
Run: 51:53 (6:50 / km)
Total: 1:55:44
0 / 6 Miriam Ellis
NZL
+0 s
+157 s
G0 / G5
50:40
Show details
Prediction details: Miriam Ellis

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +157 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 13.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 50:40 (6:40 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:49 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Sarah Shanks
NZL
+0 s
+610 s
G0 / G7
53:56
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Shanks

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +610 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 12.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 53:56 (7:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:49 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Joanne Staton
GBR
+0 s
+180 s
G1 / G8
1:03:21
Show details
Prediction details: Joanne Staton

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +180 s
Fehler: -180.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 11.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:03:21 (8:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:49 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:36 (27.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 9 Erin Trail
USA
+0 s
+259 s
G0 / G9
1:00:24
Show details
Prediction details: Erin Trail

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +259 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 11.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 1:00:24 (7:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:49 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Brydie Rain Black
NZL
+0 s
+871 s
G1 / G10
54:42
Show details
Prediction details: Brydie Rain Black

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +871 s
Fehler: -871.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 14.7 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 10.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 54:42 (7:12 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:49 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:36 (27.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable