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Elite Men

09.11.2025 Miyazaki JPN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Cup Miyazaki

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 09.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 69/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 98.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error11.0
Mean swim error7.0 s
Mean bike-speed error4.88 km/h
Correct bike groups19/56
No history0
Within the 80% range60.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 8 Yanis Seguin
FRA
+14 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:37
14:38
 41:52
Show details
Prediction details: Yanis Seguin

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -1.1 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 41:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Total: 41:52
2 / 12 Vetle Bergsvik Thorn
NOR
+12 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:46
14:48
 42:01
Show details
Prediction details: Vetle Bergsvik Thorn

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 161 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 160 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 42:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Total: 42:01
3 / 25 Tyler Mislawchuk
CAN
+16 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:48
15:02
 42:03
Show details
Prediction details: Tyler Mislawchuk

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–12
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 2.8 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 42:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Total: 42:03
4 / 11 Kenji Nener
JPN
+16 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:51
14:44
 42:06
Show details
Prediction details: Kenji Nener

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–19
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Total: 42:06
5 / 7 Nils Serre Gehri
FRA
+16 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:03
14:39
 42:18
Show details
Prediction details: Nils Serre Gehri

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -9.1 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:39 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:18
6 / 27 Darr Smith
USA
+12 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:08
15:09
 42:23
Show details
Prediction details: Darr Smith

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–23
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 3.2 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 42:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:23
7 / 43 Takuto Oshima
JPN
+13 s
+28 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:10
15:58
 42:25
Show details
Prediction details: Takuto Oshima

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–21
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -36

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -15.3 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 42:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:25
8 / 34 Jack Willis
GBR
+22 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 14:53
15:37
 42:29
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Willis

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 231 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 219 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 42:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 4.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 19 Miguel Espuna Larramona
ITA
+18 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 14:54
14:58
 42:30
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Espuna Larramona

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 3–20
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:54 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:54 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 21 Vicente Hernandez
ESP
+31 s
+34 s
G2 / G1
 14:56
14:55
 42:32
Show details
Prediction details: Vicente Hernandez

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–31
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:55 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 42:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 14.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 28 Jonas Osterholt
GER
+6 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:21
15:15
 42:36
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Osterholt

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–22
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -15.6 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 42:36
12 / 4 Shachar Sagiv
ISR
+22 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 15:02
14:33
 42:38
Show details
Prediction details: Shachar Sagiv

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 2–32
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 180 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 168 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:33 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 42:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Total: 42:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 4.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 6 Nathan Grayel
FRA
+33 s
+27 s
G3 / G1
 14:31
14:35
 42:39
Show details
Prediction details: Nathan Grayel

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 2–31
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:31 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 14:31 (2:54 / km)
Total: 42:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 15.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 1 Max Studer
SUI
+26 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 15:03
14:16
 42:39
Show details
Prediction details: Max Studer

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 4–31
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:16 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 42:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 10 Eloy Canales Escribano
ESP
+22 s
+32 s
G2 / G1
 15:05
14:43
 42:41
Show details
Prediction details: Eloy Canales Escribano

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 4–35
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -10.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:41
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 4.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 20 Sylvain Fridelance
SUI
+20 s
+19 s
G2 / G1
 15:06
15:02
 42:42
Show details
Prediction details: Sylvain Fridelance

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–24
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 194 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 182 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 2 Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger
FRA
+35 s
+19 s
G3 / G1
 14:35
14:19
 42:43
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 2–42
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 15.5 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:19 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 42:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Total: 42:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 17.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 18 Takumi Hojo
JPN
+27 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 15:07
14:55
 42:43
Show details
Prediction details: Takumi Hojo

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 8–35
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 27.1 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 248 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 248 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:55 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 9.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 32 Alois Knabl
AUT
+20 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 15:08
15:21
 42:44
Show details
Prediction details: Alois Knabl

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 8–25
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 171 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 42:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 5 Tom Lerno
FRA
+15 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:30
14:38
 42:45
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Lerno

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 1–40
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 0.5 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:52 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 42:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Total: 42:45
21 / 17 Nicolo' Astori
ITA
+31 s
+28 s
G2 / G1
 15:13
14:55
 42:49
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolo' Astori

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 11–37
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 2.9 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:55 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Total: 42:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 13.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 41 Kyotaro Yoshikawa
JPN
+6 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:35
15:56
 42:50
Show details
Prediction details: Kyotaro Yoshikawa

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 12–28
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 264 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 264 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Total: 42:50
23 / 35 Logan Campbell
AUS
+27 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 15:15
15:30
 42:51
Show details
Prediction details: Logan Campbell

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 14–32
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 42:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Total: 42:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 9.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 24 Pietro Giovannini
ITA
+3 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:41
15:10
 42:56
Show details
Prediction details: Pietro Giovannini

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 16–31
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: -5.7 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 42:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Total: 42:56
25 / 9 Andrés Prieto Villar
ESP
+10 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:41
14:36
 42:56
Show details
Prediction details: Andrés Prieto Villar

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 15–31
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -6.2 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:36 (2:55 / km)
Error: +1:05 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 42:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Total: 42:56
26 / 47 Eduardo Blanco Mollá
ESP
+6 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 15:42
16:57
 42:57
Show details
Prediction details: Eduardo Blanco Mollá

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 18–32
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -12.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 42:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Total: 42:57
27 / 14 Aoba Yasumatsu
JPN
+33 s
+20 s
G3 / G1
 14:52
14:45
 43:00
Show details
Prediction details: Aoba Yasumatsu

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 4–34
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 13.4 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 293 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 292 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Total: 43:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 16.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 39 Esteban Basanta Fouz
ESP
+8 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:47
15:53
 43:02
Show details
Prediction details: Esteban Basanta Fouz

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 18–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -10.1 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:53 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:02
29 / 16 Euan De Nigro
ITA
+19 s
+19 s
G2 / G1
 15:29
14:53
 43:05
Show details
Prediction details: Euan De Nigro

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 9–35
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 0.2 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 30 Zsombor Dévay
HUN
+26 s
+23 s
G2 / G1
 15:31
15:17
 43:07
Show details
Prediction details: Zsombor Dévay

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 20–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 3.1 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 157 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 26 Dmitrii Karpeev
AIN
+43 s
+41 s
G3 / G1
 15:01
15:09
 43:09
Show details
Prediction details: Dmitrii Karpeev

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 17–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 2.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 26.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 13 Jack Stanton-Stock
GBR
+29 s
+19 s
G2 / G1
 15:34
14:46
 43:10
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Stanton-Stock

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 19–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 43:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 11.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 23 Solomon Okrafo-Smart
GBR
+21 s
+36 s
G2 / G1
 15:36
15:05
 43:12
Show details
Prediction details: Solomon Okrafo-Smart

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 17–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -14.7 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 4.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 48 Satoshi Iwamoto
JPN
+20 s
+29 s
G2 / G3
 15:40
16:22
 43:16
Show details
Prediction details: Satoshi Iwamoto

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 18–39
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -9.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 37 Gergő Dobi
HUN
+12 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:05
15:51
 43:20
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Dobi

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 28–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -8.1 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Total: 43:20
36 / 40 Ryousuke Maeda
JPN
+16 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:07
16:05
 43:22
Show details
Prediction details: Ryousuke Maeda

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 28–46
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -7.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:07 (3:13 / km)
Total: 43:22
37 / 42 Petter Ellingsbø
NOR
+29 s
+33 s
G2 / G1
 15:48
15:59
 43:24
Show details
Prediction details: Petter Ellingsbø

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 27–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -4.2 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Total: 43:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 11.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 29 Kazushi Jozuka
JPN
+30 s
+24 s
G2 / G1
 15:48
15:13
 43:24
Show details
Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 26–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Total: 43:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 12.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 36 Ren Sato
JPN
+34 s
+26 s
G3 / G1
 15:18
15:36
 43:26
Show details
Prediction details: Ren Sato

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 19–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 324 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 324 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 16.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 45 Genta Uchida
JPN
+29 s
+18 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:55
15:56
 43:31
Show details
Prediction details: Genta Uchida

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 30–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 11.3 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 208 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 208 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Total: 43:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 12.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 46 Tzu I Pan
TPE
+32 s
+28 s
G2 / G1
 16:08
16:44
 43:44
Show details
Prediction details: Tzu I Pan

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 38–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 3.6 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 171 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 171 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 14.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 56 Shing Him Yu
HKG
+30 s
+30 s
G2 / G6
 16:10
17:36
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Shing Him Yu

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 36–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 56
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 0.4 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Error: −1:26 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 15 Denis Kolobrodov
RUS
+29 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 16:16
14:53
 43:52
Show details
Prediction details: Denis Kolobrodov

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 38–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 17.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 43:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Total: 43:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 11.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 38 Thomas Windischbauer
AUT
+17 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:42
15:56
 43:57
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Windischbauer

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 17–55
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 4.6 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Total: 43:57
45 / 3 Michael Gar
GBR
+4 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:53
14:22
 44:08
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Gar

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 40–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 42

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -9.7 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:22 (2:52 / km)
Error: +2:31 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 44:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Total: 44:08
46 / 33 Grigory Antipov
AIN
+41 s
+34 s
G3 / G1
 16:01
15:20
 44:09
Show details
Prediction details: Grigory Antipov

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 33–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 24.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 22 Hector Tolsa Garcia
ESP
+39 s
+39 s
G3 / G1
 16:06
15:06
 44:14
Show details
Prediction details: Hector Tolsa Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 38–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 0.2 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 44:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 44:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 22 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 50 Minho Kweon
KOR
+17 s
+28 s
G1 / G3
 17:02
16:59
 44:17
Show details
Prediction details: Minho Kweon

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 40–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -10.9 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 44:17
49 / 55 Juyoung Kim
KOR
+23 s
+18 s
G2 / G5
 16:42
17:31
 44:18
Show details
Prediction details: Juyoung Kim

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 42–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 55
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 4.5 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Total: 44:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 51 Sangmin Park
KOR
+23 s
+30 s
G2 / G3
 16:47
17:36
 44:23
Show details
Prediction details: Sangmin Park

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 44–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -7.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: 44:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 44 Tristen Jones
CAN
+43 s
+42 s
G3 / G2
 16:16
15:54
 44:24
Show details
Prediction details: Tristen Jones

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 35–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Total: 44:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 25.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 52 Noah Künz
AUT
+32 s
+40 s
G2 / G4
 16:58
17:16
 44:34
Show details
Prediction details: Noah Künz

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 46–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -8.5 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 44:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 14.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 49 Wan Hyuk Kim
KOR
+39 s
+33 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:33
16:44
 44:41
Show details
Prediction details: Wan Hyuk Kim

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 47–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 5.9 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 44:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 21.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 54 Cheung Sing Nicholas Tsang
HKG
+33 s
+17 s
G3 / G5
 16:45
17:13
 44:53
Show details
Prediction details: Cheung Sing Nicholas Tsang

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 43–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 54
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 16.2 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 160 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 160 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Total: 44:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 16 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 31 Niklas Keller
AUT
+36 s
+32 s
G3 / G1
 17:15
15:22
 45:23
Show details
Prediction details: Niklas Keller

Placement

Prediction: 55
80% range: 53–56
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 4.3 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (45 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Error: +1:53 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 45:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:25 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Total: 45:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 19.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 53 Boris Andreev
BUL
+26 s
+34 s
G2 / G3
 18:02
18:34
 45:38
Show details
Prediction details: Boris Andreev

Placement

Prediction: 56
80% range: 51–56
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 53
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -8.0 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (26 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:05 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 45:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.