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Elite Women

09.11.2025 Miyazaki JPN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Cup Miyazaki

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 09.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 68/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 95.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.5
Mean swim error10.3 s
Mean bike-speed error4.06 km/h
Correct bike groups18/44
No history0
Within the 80% range59.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Diana Isakova
AIN
+23 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:35
17:02
 46:53
Show details
Prediction details: Diana Isakova

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 9.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Total: 46:53
2 / 12 Danielle Orie
USA
+29 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 16:42
16:50
 47:00
Show details
Prediction details: Danielle Orie

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Total: 47:00
3 / 2 Jessica Fullagar
GBR
+8 s
+29 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:47
16:44
 47:05
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Fullagar

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -20.9 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.1 s
Gap behind: 8.1 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: 47:05
4 / 3 Tilly Anema
GBR
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:50
16:40
 47:08
Show details
Prediction details: Tilly Anema

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 8.1 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Total: 47:08
5 / 11 Lea Coninx
FRA
+42 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:38
16:54
 47:16
Show details
Prediction details: Lea Coninx

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–21
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 0.2 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 47:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 12.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Cecilia Santamaria Surroca
ESP
+19 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:03
17:12
 47:21
Show details
Prediction details: Cecilia Santamaria Surroca

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Total: 47:21
7 / 31 Hollie Elliott
IRL
+16 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 17:04
18:37
 47:22
Show details
Prediction details: Hollie Elliott

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -7.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.1 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:33 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 47:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Total: 47:22
8 / 20 Natalia Castro Santos
ESP
+28 s
+32 s
G1 / G2
 17:07
17:39
 47:25
Show details
Prediction details: Natalia Castro Santos

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -3.9 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 47:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 47:25
9 / 37 María Teresa Jiménez-Orta Guerrero
ESP
+23 s
+37 s
G1 / G3
 17:20
18:24
 47:38
Show details
Prediction details: María Teresa Jiménez-Orta Guerrero

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–20
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -14.4 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Error: −1:04 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 47:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:38
10 / 7 Yuko Takahashi
JPN
+39 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 17:07
17:28
 47:45
Show details
Prediction details: Yuko Takahashi

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–28
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 24.2 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 47:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 47:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 9 Sophie Malowiecki
AUS
+32 s
+36 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:09
16:34
 47:47
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Malowiecki

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–28
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -4.0 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 47:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 29 Manami Hayashi
JPN
+38 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:09
18:23
 47:47
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–21
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 14.1 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 164 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 164 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: −1:14 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 47:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 14 Ellie Hoitink
AUS
+33 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:10
17:19
 47:48
Show details
Prediction details: Ellie Hoitink

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 6–29
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
14 / 25 Martina McDowell
ITA
+17 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:35
19:09
 47:53
Show details
Prediction details: Martina McDowell

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–23
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -4.9 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:24 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 47:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Total: 47:53
15 / 10 María Casals Mojica
ESP
+27 s
+42 s
G1 / G2
 17:37
16:50
 47:55
Show details
Prediction details: María Casals Mojica

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–25
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -15.3 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.90 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 135 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 47:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Total: 47:55
16 / 8 Kira Hedgeland
AUS
+36 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 17:19
17:32
 47:57
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Hedgeland

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–29
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 18.2 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
17 / 22 Angelica Prestia
ITA
+26 s
+50 s
G1 / G2
 17:44
17:46
 48:02
Show details
Prediction details: Angelica Prestia

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 4–37
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -24.4 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 48:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Total: 48:02
18 / 44 Miyu Sakai
JPN
+30 s
+46 s
G1 / G5
 17:46
20:06
 48:04
Show details
Prediction details: Miyu Sakai

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 10–34
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -15.8 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 (4:01 / km)
Error: −2:20 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 48:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Total: 48:04
19 / 15 Noelia Juan
ESP
+41 s
+54 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:30
17:26
 48:08
Show details
Prediction details: Noelia Juan

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 14–32
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -12.6 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
20 / 18 Tjasa Vrtacic
SLO
+27 s
+49 s
G1 / G2
 17:51
17:34
 48:09
Show details
Prediction details: Tjasa Vrtacic

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 15–32
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -21.9 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:09
21 / 24 Michelle Magnani
USA
+40 s
+54 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:33
17:47
 48:11
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Magnani

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 10–34
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -14.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Total: 48:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 39 Alzbeta Hruskova
CZE
+46 s
+44 s
G2 / G3
 17:36
19:05
 48:14
Show details
Prediction details: Alzbeta Hruskova

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 10–41
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 1.6 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Error: −1:29 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 48:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Total: 48:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 15.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 28 Ellie White
GBR
+22 s
+27 s
G1 / G2
 17:56
18:11
 48:14
Show details
Prediction details: Ellie White

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 17–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -4.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:14
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Total: 48:14
24 / 23 Alejandra Seguí Soria
ESP
+37 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:46
17:50
 48:24
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandra Seguí Soria

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 15–36
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -4.8 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Total: 48:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 38 Manami Iijima
GUM
+40 s
+34 s
G2 / G4
 17:50
18:07
 48:28
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Iijima

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 20–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 6 Charlotte Derbyshire
AUS
+35 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 17:52
17:22
 48:30
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Derbyshire

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 11–36
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 20.3 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 48:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 5.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 40 Ayame Hayashi
JPN
+44 s
+44 s
G2 / G4
 17:52
18:50
 48:30
Show details
Prediction details: Ayame Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 19–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -0.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 13.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 35 Hye Rim Jeong
KOR
+38 s
+43 s
G2 / G3
 17:54
17:55
 48:32
Show details
Prediction details: Hye Rim Jeong

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 18–40
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 48:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Total: 48:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 8.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 26 Borbála Sarcia
HUN
+40 s
+40 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:54
18:04
 48:32
Show details
Prediction details: Borbála Sarcia

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 17–38
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Total: 48:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 30 Katrien Maes
BEL
+42 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:00
18:31
 48:38
Show details
Prediction details: Katrien Maes

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 23–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 48:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 48:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 11.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 27 Romana Gajdošová
SVK
+33 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:02
18:13
 48:40
Show details
Prediction details: Romana Gajdošová

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 17–37
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -8.7 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 48:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 3.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 13 Mariana Vargem
POR
+53 s
+48 s
G3 / G2
 16:58
17:08
 48:43
Show details
Prediction details: Mariana Vargem

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 6–36
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 48:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 23 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 16 Sarika Nakayama
JPN
+38 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 18:09
18:30
 48:47
Show details
Prediction details: Sarika Nakayama

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 22–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 13.4 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 194 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 194 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Total: 48:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 8.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 43 Kira Gupta-Baltazar
CAN
+26 s
+37 s
G1 / G3
 18:32
22:02
 48:50
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Gupta-Baltazar

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 27–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -11.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:02 (4:24 / km)
Error: −3:30 / −0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 48:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:48 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Total: 48:50
35 / 1 Valentina Riasova
AIN
+60 s
+25 s
G4 / G1
 16:54
16:36
 49:04
Show details
Prediction details: Valentina Riasova

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 10–40
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 34

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 35.4 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.8 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:05 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Total: 49:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 30.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 21 Mako Hiraizumi
JPN
+54 s
+44 s
G3 / G2
 17:25
17:43
 49:10
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 18–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 6.8 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Total: 49:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 23.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 19 Sinem Francisca Tous Servera
TUR
+53 s
+43 s
G3 / G2
 17:26
17:36
 49:11
Show details
Prediction details: Sinem Francisca Tous Servera

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 13–40
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur -1.77 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 49:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 22.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 33 Himeka Sato
JPN
+41 s
+36 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:35
19:34
 49:13
Show details
Prediction details: Himeka Sato

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 29–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 5.4 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 49:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Total: 49:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 11.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 17 Marina Muñoz Hernando
ESP
+51 s
+47 s
G3 / G2
 17:55
17:33
 49:40
Show details
Prediction details: Marina Muñoz Hernando

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 25–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Total: 49:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 20.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 36 Hanna Maksimava
BLR
+51 s
+43 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:04
18:11
 49:49
Show details
Prediction details: Hanna Maksimava

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 26–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 8.4 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Total: 49:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 21.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 34 Ji Yeon Kim
KOR
+40 s
+43 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:16
19:37
 49:54
Show details
Prediction details: Ji Yeon Kim

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 38–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:53 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Total: 49:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 32 Sophie Gießmann
GER
+64 s
+35 s
G4 / G2
 18:15
18:57
 50:25
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Gießmann

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 33–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 29.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 50:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:05 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Total: 50:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 34.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 41 Yoshiko Sato
JPN
+49 s
+35 s
G3 / G4
 19:16
19:33
 51:01
Show details
Prediction details: Yoshiko Sato

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 38–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Total: 51:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 18.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 42 Henrika Parviainen
FIN
+46 s
+42 s
G3 / G4
 21:18
20:53
 53:03
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Prediction details: Henrika Parviainen

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 44–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:18 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:53 (4:11 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 53:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:51 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 21:18 (4:16 / km)
Total: 53:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 16.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.