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Elite Men

29.06.2025 Saïdia MAR
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Cup Saidia

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 29.06.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 62/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 84.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.8
Mean swim error19.2 s
Mean bike-speed error1.00 km/h
Correct bike groups7/33
No history0
Within the 80% range51.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Tyler Mislawchuk
CAN
+31 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 30:32
31:28
 1:25:27
Show details
Prediction details: Tyler Mislawchuk

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 17:33
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 22.7 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:32 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:28 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:56 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:33 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 30:32 (3:03 / km)
Total: 1:25:27
2 / 13 Gergely Kiss
HUN
+20 s
+4 s
G1 / G2
 30:37
33:29
 1:25:32
Show details
Prediction details: Gergely Kiss

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 17:22
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 15.9 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:37 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:29 (3:21 / km)
Error: −2:52 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:22 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 30:37 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:25:32
3 / 3 John Reed
USA
+26 s
+8 s
G1 / G2
 30:44
31:35
 1:25:39
Show details
Prediction details: John Reed

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–12
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 17.8 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:44 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:35 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:28 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 30:44 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:25:39
4 / 1 Oliver Conway
GBR
+39 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		29:59
31:27
 1:26:09
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Conway

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–12
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 17:41
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 13.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:59 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:27 (3:09 / km)
Error: −1:28 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:41 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:17 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 29:59 (3:00 / km)
Total: 1:26:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 4.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 24 Joris Basslé
BEL
+7 s
+27 s
G1 / G4
 31:24
34:47
 1:26:19
Show details
Prediction details: Joris Basslé

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 17:09
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -20.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:24 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:47 (3:29 / km)
Error: −3:23 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:09 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 31:24 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:26:19
6 / 19 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+4 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 31:32
35:17
 1:26:27
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 17:06
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:32 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:17 (3:32 / km)
Error: −3:45 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:06 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 31:32 (3:09 / km)
Total: 1:26:27
7 / 30 Pietro Giovannini
ITA
+13 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 31:38
41:55
 1:26:33
Show details
Prediction details: Pietro Giovannini

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -5.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:38 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:55 (4:12 / km)
Error: −10:17 / −1:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:15 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 31:38 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:26:33
8 / 11 Jack Willis
GBR
+24 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 31:38
33:11
 1:26:33
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Willis

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–18
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 17:26
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:38 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:11 (3:19 / km)
Error: −1:33 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:26 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 31:38 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:26:33
9 / 10 Jonas Osterholt
GER
+9 s
+21 s
G1 / G2
 31:45
33:06
 1:26:40
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Osterholt

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–15
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 17:11
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -12.3 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:45 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:06 (3:19 / km)
Error: −1:21 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:11 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 31:45 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:26:40
10 / 4 Callum McClusky
AUS
+30 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 31:47
32:19
 1:26:42
Show details
Prediction details: Callum McClusky

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–19
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 18.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:47 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:19 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:32 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 31:47 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:26:42
11 / 17 Eduardo Blanco Mollá
ESP
+13 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 31:49
34:23
 1:26:44
Show details
Prediction details: Eduardo Blanco Mollá

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:49 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:23 (3:26 / km)
Error: −2:34 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:15 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 31:49 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:26:44
12 / 20 James Corbett
TRI
+13 s
+22 s
G1 / G2
 31:49
35:36
 1:26:44
Show details
Prediction details: James Corbett

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–15
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -9.5 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:49 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:36 (3:34 / km)
Error: −3:47 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:15 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 31:49 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:26:44
13 / 7 Bence Bicsák
HUN
+50 s
+19 s
G2 / G1
 30:48
33:16
 1:26:58
Show details
Prediction details: Bence Bicsák

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 17:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 30.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:48 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:16 (3:20 / km)
Error: −2:28 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:17 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 30:48 (3:05 / km)
Total: 1:26:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 15.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 14 Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez
ESP
+15 s
+7 s
G1 / G2
 32:05
33:30
 1:27:00
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 1–23
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 17:17
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:05 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:30 (3:21 / km)
Error: −1:25 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:17 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 32:05 (3:12 / km)
Total: 1:27:00
15 / 32 Valentin Morlec
FRA
+28 s
+43 s
G1 / G3
 32:19
39:28
 1:27:14
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Morlec

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–24
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 17:30
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -14.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:19 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:28 (3:57 / km)
Error: −7:09 / −0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:30 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 32:19 (3:14 / km)
Total: 1:27:14
16 / 15 Henry McMecking
NZL
+30 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 32:28
33:38
 1:27:23
Show details
Prediction details: Henry McMecking

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 16–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 95 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:28 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:38 (3:22 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:32 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 32:28 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:27:23
17 / 8 Nicola Azzano
ITA
+14 s
+5 s
G1 / G2
 32:38
32:40
 1:27:33
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Azzano

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 17:16
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:38 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:40 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:16 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 32:38 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:27:33
18 / 12 Jimmy Lund
GBR
+25 s
+21 s
G1 / G2
 32:39
33:15
 1:27:34
Show details
Prediction details: Jimmy Lund

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 15–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 17:27
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:39 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:15 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:27 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 32:39 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:27:34
19 / 22 Saxon Morgan
NZL
+15 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 32:59
36:30
 1:27:54
Show details
Prediction details: Saxon Morgan

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 17:17
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 3.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:59 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:30 (3:39 / km)
Error: −3:31 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:17 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 32:59 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:27:54
20 / 9 Darr Smith
USA
+23 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		33:07
33:34
 1:28:02
Show details
Prediction details: Darr Smith

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 9–29
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 17:25
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:07 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:34 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:25 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 33:07 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:28:02
21 / 5 Bradley Course
AUS
+43 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:07
32:25
 1:28:17
Show details
Prediction details: Bradley Course

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 12–25
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 20.6 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:07 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:25 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:17 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 32:07 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:28:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 8.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 18 Denis Kolobrodov
RUS
+53 s
+23 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:12
35:03
 1:28:22
Show details
Prediction details: Denis Kolobrodov

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 15–27
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 17:55
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 29.5 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 7.5 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:12 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:03 (3:30 / km)
Error: −2:51 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:55 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:17 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 32:12 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:28:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 18.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 16 Andres Hilario Morales
ESP
+51 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:21
33:41
 1:28:31
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Hilario Morales

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 15–26
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 17:53
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 30.8 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:21 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:41 (3:22 / km)
Error: −1:20 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:53 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:17 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 32:21 (3:14 / km)
Total: 1:28:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 17 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 21 Peter Luftensteiner
AUT
+43 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:46
36:06
 1:28:56
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Luftensteiner

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 15–29
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 14.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:46 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:06 (3:37 / km)
Error: −3:20 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:17 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 32:46 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:28:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 31 Gorka Rodríguez Hernández
ESP
+24 s
+26 s
G1 / G4
 34:09
39:00
 1:29:04
Show details
Prediction details: Gorka Rodríguez Hernández

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 24–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 17:26
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:09 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:00 (3:54 / km)
Error: −4:51 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:04
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:26 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 34:09 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:29:04
26 / 27 Daniel Tolosa Aguelo
ESP
+43 s
+40 s
G2 / G4
 33:07
36:31
 1:29:17
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Tolosa Aguelo

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 16–31
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 3.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:07 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:31 (3:39 / km)
Error: −3:24 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:17 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:07 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:29:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 9.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 25 Andres Gras
CHI
+48 s
+34 s
G2 / G4
 33:25
35:52
 1:29:35
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Gras

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 2–31
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 17:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:25 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:52 (3:35 / km)
Error: −2:27 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:17 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 33:25 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:29:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 14.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 26 Johannes Sikk
EST
+60 s
+140 s
G3 / G4
 32:15
36:17
 1:29:58
Show details
Prediction details: Johannes Sikk

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 2–31
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +140 s
Fehler: -80.0 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.5 s
Gap behind: 10.0 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:15 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:17 (3:38 / km)
Error: −4:02 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:30 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 32:15 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:29:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 26.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 28 Mikhail Antipov
RUS
+74 s
+52 s
G3 / G4
 32:26
37:01
 1:30:09
Show details
Prediction details: Mikhail Antipov

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 21–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 21.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 8.1 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:26 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:01 (3:42 / km)
Error: −4:35 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:16 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:30 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 32:26 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:30:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 39.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 6 Grigory Antipov
AIN
+93 s
+23 s
G4 / G2
 31:17
32:23
 1:31:39
Show details
Prediction details: Grigory Antipov

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 19–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +93 s
Time: 18:35
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 70.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:17 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:23 (3:14 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:35 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:49 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 31:17 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:31:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 59.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 23 Jarno Pousada Troitiño
ESP
+35 s
+45 s
G2 / G4
 35:37
34:14
 1:31:47
Show details
Prediction details: Jarno Pousada Troitiño

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 28–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 17:37
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -10.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:37 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.98 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:14 (3:25 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:37 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:17 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 35:37 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:31:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 1.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 33 Valentino Agnelli
ARG
+70 s
+29 s
G3 / G4
 37:21
40:18
 1:35:04
Show details
Prediction details: Valentino Agnelli

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 31–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 41.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.0 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:21 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:18 (4:02 / km)
Error: −2:57 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:12 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:30 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 37:21 (3:44 / km)
Total: 1:35:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 36.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 29 Xoel Rodriguez Abad
ESP
+82 s
+139 s
G4 / G4
correct 		37:20
38:11
 1:37:42
Show details
Prediction details: Xoel Rodriguez Abad

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 32–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 18:24
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +139 s
Fehler: -57.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.1 s
Gap behind: 11.6 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:20 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:11 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:42
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:24 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:49 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 37:20 (3:44 / km)
Total: 1:37:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 47.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.