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Semifinal 2 Elite Men

05.07.2025 Tiszaujvaros HUN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Cup Tiszaujvaros

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.07.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 66/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 91.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.3
Mean swim error14.2 s
Mean bike-speed error1.78 km/h
Correct bike groups2/23
No history0
Within the 80% range78.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 8 Genis Grau
ESP
+17 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 15:13
15:20
 43:13
Show details
Prediction details: Genis Grau

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 1.28 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:20 (2:58 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 16 Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger
FRA
+37 s
+22 s
G3 / G2
 14:58
15:22
 43:27
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–18
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 14.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:58 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:22 (2:59 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 14:58 (2:54 / km)
Total: 43:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 29 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2 Samuele Angelini
ITA
+17 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 15:27
15:13
 43:27
Show details
Prediction details: Samuele Angelini

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 9.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 David Lang
LUX
+19 s
+13 s
G2 / G1
 15:34
15:14
 43:34
Show details
Prediction details: David Lang

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:34 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:14 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 15:34 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 15 Sasha Caterina
SUI
+29 s
+20 s
G3 / G1
 15:11
16:20
 43:40
Show details
Prediction details: Sasha Caterina

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–14
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 8.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:11 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.85 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (3:10 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 43:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:11 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 20.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 7 João Nuno Batista
POR
+19 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 15:40
15:21
 43:40
Show details
Prediction details: João Nuno Batista

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 7.3 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:40 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 15:40 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 0.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 6 Andree Buc
CHI
+27 s
+4 s
G3 / G1
 15:31
15:12
 44:00
Show details
Prediction details: Andree Buc

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 22.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.3 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:31 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:31 (3:00 / km)
Total: 44:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 1 Bence Bicsák
HUN
+29 s
+14 s
G3 / G1
 15:39
15:12
 44:08
Show details
Prediction details: Bence Bicsák

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 14.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:02 / km)
Total: 44:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 7.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 19 Aiden Longcroft-Harris
CAN
+8 s
+5 s
G2 / G1
 16:11
16:53
 44:11
Show details
Prediction details: Aiden Longcroft-Harris

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 1–20
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 3.2 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:11 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:53 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:41 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:11 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 0.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 9 Gyula Kovács
HUN
+13 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 16:11
15:28
 44:11
Show details
Prediction details: Gyula Kovács

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:11 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:28 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:11 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 4 Nathan Grayel
FRA
+38 s
+9 s
G3 / G1
 15:50
15:15
 44:19
Show details
Prediction details: Nathan Grayel

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–18
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 28.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:50 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:15 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 44:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:50 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 30 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 11 Ren Sato
JPN
+32 s
+4 s
G3 / G1
 15:55
15:46
 44:24
Show details
Prediction details: Ren Sato

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–18
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 27.7 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:55 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:55 (3:05 / km)
Total: 44:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 23.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 12 Tomer Shapira
ISR
+16 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 16:32
15:55
 44:32
Show details
Prediction details: Tomer Shapira

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 2–20
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:32 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 44:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 16:32 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 7.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 13 Fabian Schönke
GER
+29 s
+17 s
G3 / G1
 16:05
16:11
 44:34
Show details
Prediction details: Fabian Schönke

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 5–18
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:05 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:05 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 7.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 20 Jack Crome
AUS
+4 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:42
17:18
 44:41
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Crome

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 7–17
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 8:37
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:42 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 44:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:37 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:55 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 16:42 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:41
16 / 17 Gabriel Barac
CRO
+32 s
+11 s
G3 / G1
 16:20
16:34
 44:49
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Barac

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–20
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:20 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:20 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 14 Gergő Gyula Soós
HUN
+10 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 17:01
16:19
 45:01
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Gyula Soós

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 8–20
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 6.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:42 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:43 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 1.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 10 Eduardo Nuñez Gomez
MEX
+16 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 17:02
15:45
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Eduardo Nuñez Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 1–21
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 9.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:45 (3:03 / km)
Error: +1:17 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:40 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 8.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 18 Toby Powers
AUS
+28 s
+28 s
G3 / G2
 16:35
15:36
 45:04
Show details
Prediction details: Toby Powers

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 5–21
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 0.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:35 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:36 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:59 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 45:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:35 (3:13 / km)
Total: 45:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 20.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 22 Mikita Katsianeu
BLR
+35 s
+26 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:58
17:10
 45:27
Show details
Prediction details: Mikita Katsianeu

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 8.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:17 / km)
Total: 45:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 26.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 5 Aoba Yasumatsu
JPN
+41 s
+5 s
G4 / G1
 15:32
15:12
 45:43
Show details
Prediction details: Aoba Yasumatsu

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 5–18
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 35.8 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:32 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:29 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 15:32 (3:01 / km)
Total: 45:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 32.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 21 Karol Armuła
POL
+42 s
+24 s
G4 / G2
 17:57
17:43
 48:08
Show details
Prediction details: Karol Armuła

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 21–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 18.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 8.0 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.54 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:29 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:29 / km)
Total: 48:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 34.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 23 Petar Bozhilov
BUL
+50 s
+1 s
G5 / G4
 41:28
18:49
 1:11:58
Show details
Prediction details: Petar Bozhilov

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 49.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 8.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:28 (8:02 / km)
Historical basis: 8:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:39 / km)
Error: +22:39 / +4:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:58
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 41:28 (8:02 / km)
Total: 1:11:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 28.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.