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Elite Women

02.11.2025 Vina del Mar CHI
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Cup Vina del Mar

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 02.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 69/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 97.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.4
Mean swim error20.9 s
Mean bike-speed error2.96 km/h
Correct bike groups15/34
No history0
Within the 80% range70.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Jeanne Lehair
LUX
+16 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:39
16:23
 44:15
Show details
Prediction details: Jeanne Lehair

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 12.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 44:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:15
2 / 9 Marta Pintanel Raymundo
ESP
+19 s
+7 s
G1 / G2
 16:27
16:38
 45:03
Show details
Prediction details: Marta Pintanel Raymundo

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 11.9 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 158 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 155 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Total: 45:03
3 / 24 Annika Koch
GER
+26 s
+62 s
G1 / G3
 16:44
17:49
 45:20
Show details
Prediction details: Annika Koch

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–14
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: -36.2 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 45:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Total: 45:20
4 / 7 Sandra Dodet
FRA
+31 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:35
16:29
 45:24
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Dodet

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Total: 45:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 2.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Sara Guerrero Manso
ESP
+22 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:48
16:46
 45:24
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Guerrero Manso

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 16.4 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 45:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km)
Total: 45:24
6 / 13 Verena Steinhauser
ITA
+40 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:39
17:06
 45:28
Show details
Prediction details: Verena Steinhauser

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–16
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 15.3 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 160 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 154 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Total: 45:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 11.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4 Miriam Casillas García
ESP
+39 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 16:47
17:32
 45:36
Show details
Prediction details: Miriam Casillas García

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 32.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: 45:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 5 Sophia Howell
CAN
+15 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:07
17:40
 45:43
Show details
Prediction details: Sophia Howell

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 45:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 45:43
9 / 15 Eleanor Beveridge
USA
+43 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:02
17:12
 45:51
Show details
Prediction details: Eleanor Beveridge

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 3–25
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 16.2 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -1.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:51
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 45:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 14.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 11 Beatrice Mallozzi
ITA
+33 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:05
16:53
 45:54
Show details
Prediction details: Beatrice Mallozzi

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–23
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Total: 45:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 3.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 19 Margot Garabedian
CAM
+44 s
+2 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:06
17:55
 45:55
Show details
Prediction details: Margot Garabedian

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–29
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 42.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 45:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Total: 45:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 15.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 10 Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto
COL
+35 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:11
16:43
 46:00
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 12.7 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 46:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Total: 46:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 5.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 16 Emy Legault
CAN
+28 s
+22 s
G1 / G2
 17:27
17:30
 46:03
Show details
Prediction details: Emy Legault

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 6–18
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 6.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Total: 46:03
14 / 30 Marcela Alvarez Solis
MEX
+33 s
+62 s
G2 / G4
 17:16
18:01
 46:05
Show details
Prediction details: Marcela Alvarez Solis

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–22
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: -28.7 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 46:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 46:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 4.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 23 Costanza Arpinelli
ITA
+41 s
+39 s
G2 / G3
 17:25
17:40
 46:14
Show details
Prediction details: Costanza Arpinelli

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–22
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Total: 46:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 12.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 20 Sofia Rodriguez Moreno
MEX
+42 s
+54 s
G2 / G3
 17:26
17:25
 46:15
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Rodriguez Moreno

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 6–27
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -12.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 46:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 46:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 13.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 12 Barbara De Koning
NED
+15 s
+23 s
G1 / G2
 17:40
16:54
 46:16
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -8.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 46:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Total: 46:16
18 / 31 Raquel Solis
CRC
+42 s
+85 s
G2 / G4
 17:41
18:08
 46:30
Show details
Prediction details: Raquel Solis

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 11–31
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: -42.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Total: 46:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 13.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 17 Rachel Werking
USA
+35 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:42
17:29
 46:31
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel Werking

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 9–26
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 24.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.43 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.79 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:31
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Total: 46:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 6.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 18 Lara Atkinson
GBR
+31 s
+5 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:52
17:53
 46:41
Show details
Prediction details: Lara Atkinson

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 15–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 26.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 46:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 46:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 2.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 14 Annabel Morton
GBR
+51 s
+25 s
G3 / G2
 17:06
17:10
 46:42
Show details
Prediction details: Annabel Morton

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 10–27
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 26.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 9.5 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:45 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Total: 46:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 22.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 25 Mercedes Romero Orozco
MEX
+28 s
+34 s
G1 / G3
 18:09
17:43
 46:45
Show details
Prediction details: Mercedes Romero Orozco

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 16–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Total: 46:45
23 / 8 Katie Rodda
GBR
+10 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:15
18:03
 46:51
Show details
Prediction details: Katie Rodda

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 16–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Total: 46:51
24 / 27 Daryna Moskalenko
UKR
+29 s
+45 s
G1 / G3
 18:16
17:59
 46:52
Show details
Prediction details: Daryna Moskalenko

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 18–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -16.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Total: 46:52
25 / 6 Michaela Sterbova
CZE
+20 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:33
17:54
 47:09
Show details
Prediction details: Michaela Sterbova

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 18–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 14.1 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 47:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Total: 47:09
26 / 28 Lara Thekla Ungewickell
GER
+39 s
+65 s
G2 / G3
 18:23
18:15
 47:12
Show details
Prediction details: Lara Thekla Ungewickell

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 19–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -26.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Total: 47:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 10.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 21 Barbara Riveros
CHI
+44 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:34
18:20
 47:23
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara Riveros

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 24–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 16.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:05 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Total: 47:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 14.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 3 Rosa Elena Martinez Melchior
VEN
+69 s
+0 s
G4 / G1
 17:20
17:14
 48:01
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Elena Martinez Melchior

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 23–33
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 69.0 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:32 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 40.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 22 Giovanna Lacerda
BRA
+48 s
+61 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:25
17:39
 48:01
Show details
Prediction details: Giovanna Lacerda

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 15–34
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -12.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:45 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Total: 48:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 33 Moira Miranda
ARG
+28 s
+23 s
G1 / G4
 19:35
19:03
 48:11
Show details
Prediction details: Moira Miranda

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 25–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 48:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Total: 48:11
31 / 26 Gabrielle Lemes
BRA
+63 s
+44 s
G4 / G3
 17:40
17:53
 48:21
Show details
Prediction details: Gabrielle Lemes

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 11–32
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 18.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:32 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Total: 48:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 33.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 29 Dana Soroka
UKR
+18 s
+52 s
G1 / G3
 19:56
18:56
 48:32
Show details
Prediction details: Dana Soroka

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 28–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -34.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:56 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:07 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 19:56 (3:59 / km)
Total: 48:32
33 / 34 Yeva Soroka
UKR
+61 s
+104 s
G4 / G5
 18:22
17:47
 49:03
Show details
Prediction details: Yeva Soroka

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 26–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: -43.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.5 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 49:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:32 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Total: 49:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 31.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 32 Julia Kekkonen
FIN
+48 s
+83 s
G3 / G4
 19:41
18:58
 49:17
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Kekkonen

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 27–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -34.6 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:41 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 49:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:45 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 19:41 (3:56 / km)
Total: 49:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.