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Elite Men

13.12.2025 Playa El Sauzal URU
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Durazno

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.12.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.6
Mean swim error38.5 s
Mean bike-speed error2.58 km/h
Correct bike groups5/27
No history0
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Thomas Francisco Chica Perez
ECU
+28 s
+14 s
G1 / G2
 14:49
15:30
 45:33
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Francisco Chica Perez

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 9–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:49 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 14:49 (2:58 / km)
Total: 45:33
2 / 1 Thomas Castañeda Maldonado
ARG
+25 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:13
15:29
 46:57
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Castañeda Maldonado

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 9–11
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 24.6 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.5 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 46:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Total: 46:57
3 / 3 Gerald Rojas Carvajal
CRC
+28 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 17:39
15:46
 48:23
Show details
Prediction details: Gerald Rojas Carvajal

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.95 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: +1:53 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 48:23
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Total: 48:23
4 / 4 Bautista Arbizu
ARG
+40 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:58
16:22
 48:25
Show details
Prediction details: Bautista Arbizu

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 10–15
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 19.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 8.3 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:47 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 48:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 6 Oliver Batista
PAN
+40 s
+56 s
G2 / G3
 17:30
17:49
 48:57
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Batista

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -16.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:47 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 7.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 20 Martin Guevara Mejia
COL
+14 s
+52 s
G1 / G9
 18:46
18:58
 49:30
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Guevara Mejia

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 13–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -37.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.4 s
Gap behind: 10.5 s
Result: Group 9 (4 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.40 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:30
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Total: 49:30
7 / 8 Christiaan Jansen
ARU
+34 s
+55 s
G2 / G5
 18:31
17:07
 49:58
Show details
Prediction details: Christiaan Jansen

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 11–19
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -20.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.50 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 49:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:47 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Total: 49:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 2.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 7 Santino Calderón Lucoratolo
ARG
+89 s
+85 s
G4 / G4
correct 		15:56
17:23
 50:27
Show details
Prediction details: Santino Calderón Lucoratolo

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 13–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +89 s
Time: 11:41
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 3.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 6.8 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.35 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Error: −1:27 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 50:27
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:41 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:02 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Total: 50:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 57 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 5 Aaron Jesus Hernández Morales
VEN
+1 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 20:26
16:34
 51:10
Show details
Prediction details: Aaron Jesus Hernández Morales

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 16–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: -10.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.96 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: +3:52 / +0:47 / km
Overall prediction: 51:10
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Total: 51:10
10 / 9 Anderson Samuel Andrés Tohom Alvarado
GUA
+36 s
+52 s
G2 / G5
 20:38
17:18
 52:05
Show details
Prediction details: Anderson Samuel Andrés Tohom Alvarado

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 19–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -16.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:38 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -2.01 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Error: +3:20 / +0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 52:05
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:47 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 20:38 (4:08 / km)
Total: 52:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 4.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10 Mariano Jose Nogueras Irizarry
PUR
+82 s
+123 s
G4 / G6
 18:00
16:49
 52:31
Show details
Prediction details: Mariano Jose Nogueras Irizarry

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 18–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 11:34
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +123 s
Fehler: -41.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.7 s
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Error: +1:11 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 52:31
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:34 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:02 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 52:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 50.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 11 Samuel Zuluaga Cardona
COL
+63 s
+56 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:37
19:19
 53:08
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Zuluaga Cardona

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 13–22
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 11:15
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 18.7 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 53:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:15 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:02 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Total: 53:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 31.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 14 Alejandro Juanuk
BRA
+48 s
+58 s
G3 / G5
 19:11
18:38
 53:17
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Juanuk

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 17–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -9.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.08 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.3 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 53:17
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:00 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:16 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Total: 53:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
14 / 13 Renato Paolo Siacia
ARG
+109 s
+122 s
G5 / G6
 18:34
17:47
 55:17
Show details
Prediction details: Renato Paolo Siacia

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 23–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +109 s
Time: 12:01
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +122 s
Fehler: -12.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.5 s
Gap behind: 8.9 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 55:17
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:45 (34.5 km/h)
Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Total: 55:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 77.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 21 David Jose Pardo Benitez
PAR
+118 s
+100 s
G5 / G9
 18:43
19:05
 55:26
Show details
Prediction details: David Jose Pardo Benitez

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 23–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +118 s
Time: 12:10
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +100 s
Fehler: 18.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.9 s
Gap behind: 22.0 s
Result: Group 9 (4 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 2.14 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 55:26
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:10 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:45 (34.5 km/h)
Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Total: 55:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 86.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 15 Leandro Alfonso Martinez
URU
+56 s
+57 s
G4 / G5
 20:55
18:54
 55:26
Show details
Prediction details: Leandro Alfonso Martinez

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 22–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 11:08
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -0.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.7 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:55 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Error: +2:01 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 55:26
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:08 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:02 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 20:55 (4:11 / km)
Total: 55:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 24.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16 Santiago Villada Giraldo
COL
+96 s
+135 s
G5 / G9
 20:23
16:03
 57:06
Show details
Prediction details: Santiago Villada Giraldo

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 25–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +96 s
Time: 11:48
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +135 s
Fehler: -39.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.8 s
Gap behind: 13.5 s
Result: Group 9 (4 people)
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Error: +4:20 / +0:52 / km
Overall prediction: 57:06
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:48 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:45 (34.5 km/h)
Run: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Total: 57:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 63.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 23 Juan Moreira
URU
+292 s
+253 s
G8 / G11
 22:20
19:08
 1:06:50
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Moreira

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +292 s
Time: 15:04
Pace: 2:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +253 s
Fehler: 39.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 17, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 91.8 s
Gap behind: 104.5 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:20 (4:28 / km)
Historical basis: 4:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Error: +3:12 / +0:38 / km
Overall prediction: 1:06:50
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 15:04 (2:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:38 (30.3 km/h)
Run: 22:20 (4:28 / km)
Total: 1:06:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 260.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Eduardo Andres Carretero
PUR
+50 s
+108 s
G3 / G6
17:39
Show details
Prediction details: Eduardo Andres Carretero

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +108 s
Fehler: -58.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 6.7 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:16 (36.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 17.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17 Santiago Fernandez
PUR
+4 s
+53 s
G1 / G4
21:40
Show details
Prediction details: Santiago Fernandez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -49.3 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 10.4 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:40 (4:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 18 Benjamin Carmino
TTO
+145 s
+106 s
G7 / G8
20:05
Show details
Prediction details: Benjamin Carmino

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +145 s
Time: 12:37
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +106 s
Fehler: 39.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 32.1 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:05 (4:01 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:37 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:33 (30.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 113.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Santiago Buntalyk Caviglia
ARG
+177 s
+100 s
G7 / G7
correct
20:51
Show details
Prediction details: Santiago Buntalyk Caviglia

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +177 s
Time: 13:09
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +100 s
Fehler: 77.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 32.1 s
Gap behind: 23.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 13:09 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:33 (30.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 145.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Martino Mesias Hernandez
ARG
+200 s
+144 s
G7 / G9
20:18
Show details
Prediction details: Martino Mesias Hernandez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +200 s
Time: 13:32
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +144 s
Fehler: 56.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.27 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 16, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 23.0 s
Gap behind: 91.8 s
Result: Group 9 (4 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:18 (4:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 13:32 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:33 (30.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 168.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 24 Abdiel Best
PAN
+140 s
+171 s
G6 / G10
20:28
Show details
Prediction details: Abdiel Best

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +140 s
Time: 12:32
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +171 s
Fehler: -30.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.0 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:28 (4:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 12:32 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:19 (34.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 108.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25 Emilio Roosevelt Benitez Núñez
PAR
+0 s
+177 s
G1 / G12
20:00
Show details
Prediction details: Emilio Roosevelt Benitez Núñez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +177 s
Fehler: -177.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 26 Diego Benjamin Chura Cachaga
BOL
+0 s
+113 s
G1 / G13
23:14
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Benjamin Chura Cachaga

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +113 s
Fehler: -113.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:14 (4:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (39.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 27 Alan Dario Villanueva Caballero
PAR
+397 s
+299 s
G9 / G14
21:55
Show details
Prediction details: Alan Dario Villanueva Caballero

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +397 s
Time: 16:49
Pace: 2:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +299 s
Fehler: 97.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 18, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 104.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:55 (4:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 16:49 (2:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:55 (28.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 364.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.