Prediction comparison

Elite Women

13.12.2025 Playa El Sauzal URU

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Durazno

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.12.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 39/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 38.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.2

Mean swim error23.2 s

Mean bike-speed error1.69 km/h

Correct bike groups8/13

No history0

Within the 80% range23.1 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Zoe Adam PUR	+9 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:27 18:08	52:25	Show details Prediction details: Zoe Adam Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: 10:09 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 9.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.74 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 36.6 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 33.9 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 37.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.81 km/h Running and total Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 2:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km) Error: +1:19 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 52:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:49 (36.6 km/h) Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km) Total: 52:25
2 / 6	Valentina Sofia Negron PUR	+84 s +121 s	G3 / G4	20:41 19:19	58:25	Show details Prediction details: Valentina Sofia Negron Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 5–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +84 s Time: 11:24 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +121 s Fehler: -36.8 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 44 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 16.3 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 34.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.62 km/h Running and total Run: 20:41 (4:08 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 34 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:19 (3:52 / km) Error: +1:22 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 58:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:24 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:20 (33.1 km/h) Run: 20:41 (4:08 / km) Total: 58:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 71.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2	Rebecca Jansen ARU	+76 s +56 s	G3 / G3 correct	20:46 18:26	58:30	Show details Prediction details: Rebecca Jansen Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–8 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +76 s Time: 11:16 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: 20.4 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 21.2 s Gap behind: 7.7 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.43 km/h Running and total Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:26 (3:41 / km) Error: +2:20 / +0:28 / km Overall prediction: 58:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:16 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:20 (33.1 km/h) Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km) Total: 58:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 63.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3	Manuela Ortega Arteaga ECU	+43 s +54 s	G2 / G2 correct	24:07 19:48	58:48	Show details Prediction details: Manuela Ortega Arteaga Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 6–10 Top-10 probability: 95 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 10:43 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: -11.1 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 37 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.3 km/h Gap ahead: 33.9 s Gap behind: 10.9 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.44 km/h Running and total Run: 24:07 (4:49 / km) Historical basis: 4:49 / km Best comparable pace: 4:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:48 (3:58 / km) Error: +4:19 / +0:52 / km Overall prediction: 58:48 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:58 (35.3 km/h) Run: 24:07 (4:49 / km) Total: 58:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 30 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4	Victoria Arce Nuñez CRC	+54 s +52 s	G3 / G3 correct	22:12 20:15	59:56	Show details Prediction details: Victoria Arce Nuñez Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–10 Top-10 probability: 94 % Result: 4 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 10:54 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 1.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 33.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.9 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.60 km/h Running and total Run: 22:12 (4:26 / km) Historical basis: 4:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.80 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:03 / km) Error: +1:57 / +0:23 / km Overall prediction: 59:56 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:54 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:20 (33.1 km/h) Run: 22:12 (4:26 / km) Total: 59:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 40.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8	Ana Victoria Portillo Prono PAR	+121 s +101 s	G5 / G5 correct	22:47 20:45	1:01:20	Show details Prediction details: Ana Victoria Portillo Prono Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 8–11 Top-10 probability: 79 % Result: 8 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +121 s Time: 12:01 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +101 s Fehler: 20.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.15 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 20.8 s Gap behind: 11.1 s Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 33.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h Running and total Run: 22:47 (4:33 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:45 (4:09 / km) Error: +2:02 / +0:24 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:20 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:32 (32.9 km/h) Run: 22:47 (4:33 / km) Total: 1:01:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 108.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 9	Domenica Tintin Salas ECU	+84 s +120 s	G3 / G5	23:52 21:20	1:01:36	Show details Prediction details: Domenica Tintin Salas Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 8–11 Top-10 probability: 81 % Result: 9 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +84 s Time: 11:24 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +120 s Fehler: -35.9 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.7 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 33.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h Running and total Run: 23:52 (4:46 / km) Historical basis: 4:46 / km Best comparable pace: 4:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:20 (4:16 / km) Error: +2:32 / +0:30 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:36 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 11:24 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:20 (33.1 km/h) Run: 23:52 (4:46 / km) Total: 1:01:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 71.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 5	Valentina Villa Ramirez COL	+101 s +117 s	G4 / G4 correct	23:47 18:53	1:02:18	Show details Prediction details: Valentina Villa Ramirez Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 9–11 Top-10 probability: 53 % Result: 5 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +101 s Time: 11:41 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +117 s Fehler: -16.5 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 34 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 16.3 s Gap behind: 20.8 s Result: Group 4 (2 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h Running and total Run: 23:47 (4:45 / km) Historical basis: 4:48 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km) Error: +4:54 / +0:59 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:18 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:41 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:51 (32.6 km/h) Run: 23:47 (4:45 / km) Total: 1:02:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 87.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 10	Jimena Martinez URU	+132 s +120 s	G6 / G6 correct	25:45 22:22	1:06:20	Show details Prediction details: Jimena Martinez Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 12–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +132 s Time: 12:12 Pace: 1:38 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +120 s Fehler: 12.4 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.1 s Gap behind: 28.2 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h Running and total Run: 25:45 (5:09 / km) Historical basis: 5:13 / km Best comparable pace: 5:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:22 (4:28 / km) Error: +3:23 / +0:41 / km Overall prediction: 1:06:20 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:12 (1:38 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:22 (31.3 km/h) Run: 25:45 (5:09 / km) Total: 1:06:20 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 119.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 7	Angelica Ballón Cano COL	+179 s +120 s	G7 / G5	32:29 20:17	1:18:09	Show details Prediction details: Angelica Ballón Cano Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 13–13 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +179 s Time: 12:59 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +120 s Fehler: 59.4 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 30 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 33.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.23 km/h Running and total Run: 32:29 (6:30 / km) Historical basis: 6:40 / km Best comparable pace: 6:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:17 (4:03 / km) Error: +12:12 / +2:26 / km Overall prediction: 1:18:09 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 12:59 (1:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 42:41 (28.2 km/h) Run: 32:29 (6:30 / km) Total: 1:18:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 166.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11	Raquel Sucre Pascal PAN	+55 s +120 s	G3 / G6	22:47		Show details Prediction details: Raquel Sucre Pascal Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 10:55 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +120 s Fehler: -64.8 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 21.2 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.04 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:47 (4:33 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:20 (33.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 42.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12	Jaliyah Celestine TTO	+161 s +162 s	G7 / G7 correct	26:34		Show details Prediction details: Jaliyah Celestine Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +161 s Time: 12:41 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +162 s Fehler: -1.4 s Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 28.2 s Gap behind: 14.7 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 29.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.27 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:34 (5:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 12:41 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 42:41 (28.2 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 147.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13	María Paz Rosetti Lopez PAR	+175 s +164 s	G7 / G8	31:17		Show details Prediction details: María Paz Rosetti Lopez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +175 s Time: 12:55 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +164 s Fehler: 11.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.7 s Gap behind: 4.1 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 29.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.11 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:17 (6:15 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 12:55 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 42:41 (28.2 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m About 162.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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