Prediction comparison

Elite Women

11.10.2025 Izvorani ROU

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Izvorani

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 90.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.7

Mean swim error32.9 s

Mean bike-speed error6.22 km/h

Correct bike groups6/10

No history0

Within the 80% range10.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Tinkara Stres SLO	+24 s +46 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:52 18:39	53:49	Show details Prediction details: Tinkara Stres Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 10:24 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -22.3 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 30 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 54 % Speed: 35.8 km/h Gap ahead: 3.4 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 29.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.72 km/h Running and total Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.13 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:39 (3:44 / km) Error: +1:13 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 53:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (35.8 km/h) Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km) Total: 53:49
2 / 8	Mirolyuba Nenkova BUL	+54 s +76 s	G3 / G3 correct	19:07 21:08	55:44	Show details Prediction details: Mirolyuba Nenkova Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 10:54 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +76 s Fehler: -22.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 29 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 34.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.8 s Gap behind: 29.4 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 26.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.69 km/h Running and total Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:08 (4:14 / km) Error: −2:01 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 55:44 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:54 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:13 (34.0 km/h) Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km) Total: 55:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:28 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 26.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 6	Mira Ivanova Georgieva BUL	+33 s +57 s	G2 / G2 correct	20:11 18:59	56:00	Show details Prediction details: Mira Ivanova Georgieva Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: -23.7 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 48 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 27.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.40 km/h Running and total Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km) Error: +1:12 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 56:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:13 (34.1 km/h) Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km) Total: 56:00 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 5.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5	Amalia Maria Singuran ROU	+24 s +2 s	G1 / G1 correct	22:25 20:48	56:22	Show details Prediction details: Amalia Maria Singuran Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +24 s Time: 10:24 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 21.7 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 33 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 35.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 6.3 s Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 28.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.12 km/h Running and total Run: 22:25 (4:29 / km) Historical basis: 4:31 / km Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:48 (4:10 / km) Error: +1:37 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 56:22 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (35.8 km/h) Run: 22:25 (4:29 / km) Total: 56:22
5 / 2	Diana Alexandra Constantinescu ROU	+30 s +0 s	G2 / G1	20:34 19:02	56:23	Show details Prediction details: Diana Alexandra Constantinescu Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 10:30 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 30.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Gap ahead: 6.3 s Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 28.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.43 km/h Running and total Run: 20:34 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.21 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:02 (3:48 / km) Error: +1:32 / +0:18 / km Overall prediction: 56:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:13 (34.1 km/h) Run: 20:34 (4:07 / km) Total: 56:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:28 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 2.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 3	Iva Pavlovic SRB	+36 s +47 s	G2 / G1	20:57 19:13	56:46	Show details Prediction details: Iva Pavlovic Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 4–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 10:36 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -11.5 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 34.1 km/h Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 13.7 s Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 29.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.00 km/h Running and total Run: 20:57 (4:11 / km) Historical basis: 4:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:13 (3:51 / km) Error: +1:44 / +0:21 / km Overall prediction: 56:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:13 (34.1 km/h) Run: 20:57 (4:11 / km) Total: 56:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:28 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 7.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4	Raluca Vilcu ROU	+83 s +44 s	G3 / G1	20:44 20:25	57:21	Show details Prediction details: Raluca Vilcu Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +83 s Time: 11:23 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: 39.4 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -2.01 %, Sicherheit 34 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 29.4 s Gap behind: 41.1 s Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 29.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.98 km/h Running and total Run: 20:44 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:25 (4:05 / km) Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 57:21 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:23 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:13 (34.0 km/h) Run: 20:44 (4:09 / km) Total: 57:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 55.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 9	Aisha Batel Essameldin Abouelela ROU	+49 s +81 s	G3 / G3 correct	23:33 21:26	1:00:10	Show details Prediction details: Aisha Batel Essameldin Abouelela Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 10:49 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +81 s Fehler: -31.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.23 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.7 s Gap behind: 4.8 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 26.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.67 km/h Running and total Run: 23:33 (4:43 / km) Historical basis: 4:44 / km Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:26 (4:17 / km) Error: +2:07 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: 1:00:10 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:13 (34.0 km/h) Run: 23:33 (4:43 / km) Total: 1:00:10 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 21.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7	Karmen Fabris CRO	+20 s +47 s	G1 / G2	20:34		Show details Prediction details: Karmen Fabris Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 10:20 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -26.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 56 % Speed: 35.8 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 3.4 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 27.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.14 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 (4:07 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (35.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 10	Chrysanthi Konstantinou CYP	+125 s +224 s	G4 / G4 correct	25:46		Show details Prediction details: Chrysanthi Konstantinou Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +125 s Time: 12:05 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +224 s Fehler: -99.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 41.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 22.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.07 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:46 (5:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:05 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 46:33 (25.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:28 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 96.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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