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Elite Men

22.11.2025 Kilifi KEN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Kilifi

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 44/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 47.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 65.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.8
Mean swim error220.7 s
Mean bike-speed error3.75 km/h
Correct bike groups2/17
No history6
Within the 80% range8.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Nathan Max Centlivres Chase
NAM
+51 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:13
15:20
 57:02
Show details
Prediction details: Nathan Max Centlivres Chase

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 11:06
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 51.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.0 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Error: +2:53 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 57:02
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:06 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:27 (31.9 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 57:02
2 / 1 Remy Gerard
MRI
+60 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:13
14:52
 57:02
Show details
Prediction details: Remy Gerard

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 11:15
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 53.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.30 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 22.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.60 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Error: +3:21 / +0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 57:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:15 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:27 (31.9 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 57:02
3 / 4 Matt Reece Levert Izaaks
NAM
+306 s
+150 s
G2 / G5
 16:49
14:37
 58:41
Show details
Prediction details: Matt Reece Levert Izaaks

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +306 s
Time: 15:21
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +150 s
Fehler: 155.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 135.8 s
Gap behind: 32.0 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.33 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Error: +2:12 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 58:41
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 15:21 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:47 (32.0 km/h)
Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Total: 58:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:24
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 176.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +128.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5 Joseph Okal
KEN
+133 s
+42 s
G2 / G4
 21:36
16:28
 1:03:28
Show details
Prediction details: Joseph Okal

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +133 s
Time: 12:28
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 90.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.15 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 50.9 s
Gap behind: 36.9 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:36 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Error: +5:08 / +1:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:47 (32.0 km/h)
Run: 21:36 (4:19 / km)
Total: 1:03:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:19
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 69 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +63.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8 Trevor K. Mwamisi
KEN
+170 s
+48 s
G2 / G3
 21:59
19:43
 1:03:51
Show details
Prediction details: Trevor K. Mwamisi

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +170 s
Time: 13:05
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 121.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 1.50 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 36.9 s
Gap behind: 135.8 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:59 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Error: +2:16 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:51
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:05 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:47 (32.0 km/h)
Run: 21:59 (4:24 / km)
Total: 1:03:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:41
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 83.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 13 Kiugu Kingori
KEN
+338 s
+48 s
G3 / G15
 24:52
19:49
 1:08:52
Show details
Prediction details: Kiugu Kingori

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 8–11
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +338 s
Time: 15:53
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 289.6 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 2.49 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 32.0 s
Gap behind: 25.1 s
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 0.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 30.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:52 (4:58 / km)
Historical basis: 5:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km
Trend: −0:06 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.15 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:49 (3:58 / km)
Error: +5:03 / +1:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:52
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:53 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:22 (31.3 km/h)
Run: 24:52 (4:58 / km)
Total: 1:08:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:41
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 251.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Samuel Nderitu
KEN
+375 s
+103 s
G4 / G5
 21:18
18:21
 1:08:59
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Nderitu

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +375 s
Time: 16:30
Pace: 2:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +103 s
Fehler: 271.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.0 s
Gap behind: 120.1 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:18 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Error: +2:57 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:59
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 16:30 (2:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:26 (30.2 km/h)
Run: 21:18 (4:16 / km)
Total: 1:08:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:19
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 310.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +63.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 15 David Wanjiru
KEN
+0 s
+402 s
G1 / G9
 30:39
15:37
 1:09:28
Show details
Prediction details: David Wanjiru

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 9–10
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +402 s
Fehler: -402.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 9 (3 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:39 (6:08 / km)
Historical basis: 6:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Error: +15:02 / +3:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:09:28
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:27 (31.9 km/h)
Run: 30:39 (6:08 / km)
Total: 1:09:28
9 / 11 Anthony Njenga
KEN
+495 s
+273 s
G4 / G6
 24:10
18:49
 1:11:51
Show details
Prediction details: Anthony Njenga

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +495 s
Time: 18:30
Pace: 2:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +273 s
Fehler: 221.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 120.1 s
Gap behind: 44.1 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:10 (4:50 / km)
Historical basis: 4:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Error: +5:21 / +1:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:51
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:30 (2:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:26 (30.2 km/h)
Run: 24:10 (4:50 / km)
Total: 1:11:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:41
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 408.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 6 Hamza Bashir
KEN
+693 s
+253 s
G5 / G8
 21:32
15:04
 1:12:44
Show details
Prediction details: Hamza Bashir

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 11–14
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +693 s
Time: 21:48
Pace: 2:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +253 s
Fehler: 440.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 51.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:32 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Error: +6:28 / +1:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:44
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:48 (2:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:39 (30.3 km/h)
Run: 21:32 (4:18 / km)
Total: 1:12:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:19
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 629.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +63.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 17 Jabu Ibrahim Ali
TAN
+363 s
+311 s
G4 / G9
 25:19
19:24
 1:13:00
Show details
Prediction details: Jabu Ibrahim Ali

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 11–13
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +363 s
Time: 16:18
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +311 s
Fehler: 51.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 2.47 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.1 s
Gap behind: 12.0 s
Result: Group 9 (3 people)
Speed: 30.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:19 (5:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 2.32 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Error: +5:55 / +1:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:13:00
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 16:18 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:26 (30.2 km/h)
Run: 25:19 (5:04 / km)
Total: 1:13:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:19
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 298.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +63.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 12 Abubakar Saleh
KEN
+642 s
+259 s
G5 / G6
 22:33
19:26
 1:13:45
Show details
Prediction details: Abubakar Saleh

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 13–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +642 s
Time: 20:57
Pace: 2:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +259 s
Fehler: 382.6 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 102.7 s
Gap behind: 51.7 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:33 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Error: +3:07 / +0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 1:13:45
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:57 (2:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:39 (30.3 km/h)
Run: 22:33 (4:31 / km)
Total: 1:13:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:41
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 555.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 16 Daniel Kenani
KEN
+0 s
+458 s
G1 / G10
 36:54
17:19
 1:15:43
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Kenani

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +458 s
Fehler: -458.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 41.0 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:54 (7:23 / km)
Historical basis: 7:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Error: +19:35 / +3:55 / km
Overall prediction: 1:15:43
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:27 (31.9 km/h)
Run: 36:54 (7:23 / km)
Total: 1:15:43
14 / 22 Jimmy Dukes Otieno
KEN
+0 s
+539 s
G1 / G13
 38:41
23:07
 1:17:30
Show details
Prediction details: Jimmy Dukes Otieno

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +539 s
Fehler: -539.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:41 (7:44 / km)
Historical basis: 7:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:07 (4:37 / km)
Error: +15:34 / +3:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:17:30
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:27 (31.9 km/h)
Run: 38:41 (7:44 / km)
Total: 1:17:30
15 / 18 Aloysius Riki
KEN
+539 s
+398 s
G5 / G11
 48:24
18:26
 1:39:36
Show details
Prediction details: Aloysius Riki

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +539 s
Time: 19:14
Pace: 2:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +398 s
Fehler: 140.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 2.47 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 44.1 s
Gap behind: 102.7 s
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 28.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:24 (9:41 / km)
Historical basis: 9:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Error: +29:58 / +6:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:36
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 19:14 (2:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:39 (30.3 km/h)
Run: 48:24 (9:41 / km)
Total: 1:39:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:19
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
About 475 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +63.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Youssef Slama
TUN
+82 s
+2 s
G1 / G2
15:42
Show details
Prediction details: Youssef Slama

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 80.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.0 s
Gap behind: 50.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:37 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:27 (31.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 9 Remi Samouilhan
MRI
+0 s
+46 s
G0 / G4
20:30
Show details
Prediction details: Remi Samouilhan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:30 (4:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Timothee Allet
MRI
+0 s
+44 s
G0 / G7
18:25
Show details
Prediction details: Timothee Allet

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Arvin AbdelMassih
MOZ
+41 s
+43 s
G1 / G7
20:43
Show details
Prediction details: Arvin AbdelMassih

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:56
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 41.0 s
Gap behind: 10.0 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:43 (4:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:56 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:27 (31.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 19 Omar Abdalla Mohamed
TAN
+0 s
+285 s
G0 / G9
22:23
Show details
Prediction details: Omar Abdalla Mohamed

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +285 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (3 people)
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:23 (4:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20 Joshua Bunkowske
KEN
+0 s
+382 s
G0 / G11
17:50
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Bunkowske

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +382 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21 Frank Nyanjom
KEN
+0 s
+249 s
G0 / G14
19:39
Show details
Prediction details: Frank Nyanjom

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +249 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 24.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23 Ali Ali
KEN
+0 s
+569 s
G0 / G12
25:22
Show details
Prediction details: Ali Ali

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +569 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:22 (5:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.