Prediction comparison

Elite Women

22.11.2025 Kilifi KEN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Kilifi

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 49/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 57.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 42.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.4

Mean swim error108.0 s

Mean bike-speed error1.60 km/h

Correct bike groups1/5

No history2

Within the 80% range14.3 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Maja Jeanne Brinkmann NAM	+5 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	21:04 17:57	58:34	Show details Prediction details: Maja Jeanne Brinkmann Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +5 s Time: 10:33 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 5.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 32.1 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 197.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.49 km/h Running and total Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Error: +3:07 / +0:37 / km Overall prediction: 58:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:25 (32.1 km/h) Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km) Total: 58:34
2 / 2	Megan Irungu KEN	+220 s +65 s	G3 / G2	24:05 19:15	1:09:12	Show details Prediction details: Megan Irungu Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +220 s Time: 14:08 Pace: 1:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +65 s Fehler: 154.6 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.14 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.9 km/h Gap ahead: 17.6 s Gap behind: 368.7 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 30.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.19 km/h Running and total Run: 24:05 (4:49 / km) Historical basis: 4:42 / km Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:15 (3:51 / km) Error: +4:50 / +0:58 / km Overall prediction: 1:09:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:08 (1:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:28 (28.9 km/h) Run: 24:05 (4:49 / km) Total: 1:09:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 210.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4	Bernice Kariuki KEN	+588 s +484 s	G4 / G5	41:17 20:10	1:35:14	Show details Prediction details: Bernice Kariuki Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +588 s Time: 20:16 Pace: 2:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +484 s Fehler: 104.3 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.18 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.2 km/h Gap ahead: 368.7 s Gap behind: 167.9 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 28.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.99 km/h Running and total Run: 41:17 (8:15 / km) Historical basis: 8:28 / km Best comparable pace: 4:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:10 (4:02 / km) Error: +21:07 / +4:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:35:14 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 20:16 (2:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 44:09 (27.2 km/h) Run: 41:17 (8:15 / km) Total: 1:35:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
4 / 7	Asha Kombo Khamis TAN	+756 s +613 s	G5 / G6	42:31 37:14	1:43:07	Show details Prediction details: Asha Kombo Khamis Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +756 s Time: 23:04 Pace: 3:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +613 s Fehler: 143.2 s Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Gap ahead: 167.9 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 21.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.31 km/h Running and total Run: 42:31 (8:30 / km) Historical basis: 8:18 / km Best comparable pace: 8:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:14 (7:27 / km) Error: +5:17 / +1:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:07 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 23:04 (3:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 48:00 (25.0 km/h) Run: 42:31 (8:30 / km) Total: 1:43:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 747.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Elissa Ghanoudi TUN	+202 s +69 s	G2 / G3	20:02		Show details Prediction details: Elissa Ghanoudi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +202 s Time: 13:50 Pace: 1:51 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +69 s Fehler: 133.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.8 km/h Gap ahead: 197.0 s Gap behind: 17.6 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 28.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.02 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:02 (4:00 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 13:50 (1:51 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 40:20 (29.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 193.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Keira Rajabalee MRI	+0 s +40 s	G0 / G4	22:32		Show details Prediction details: Keira Rajabalee Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:28 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 24.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:32 (4:30 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Jana Mutschler NAM	+0 s +179 s	G0 / G5	22:01		Show details Prediction details: Jana Mutschler Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:28 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +179 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 25.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:01 (4:24 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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Running and total

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