Prediction comparison

Youth Men

11.11.2025 Kilifi KEN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Kilifi

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 33.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.2

Mean swim error220.0 s

Mean bike-speed error0.60 km/h

Correct bike groups0/6

No history6

Within the 80% range25.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Ryan Viviers RSA	+88 s +22 s	G2 / G1	8:31 7:58	26:31	Show details Prediction details: Ryan Viviers Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +88 s Time: 6:00 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 65.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 36.3 km/h Gap ahead: 81.5 s Gap behind: 34.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 36.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.04 km/h Running and total Run: 8:31 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:58 (3:11 / km) Error: +0:33 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 26:31 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 6:00 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:33 (36.3 km/h) Run: 8:31 (3:24 / km) Total: 26:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 5:45 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m About 14.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +72.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2	Zander Botha ZIM	+6 s +12 s	G1 / G2	9:14 8:05	27:00	Show details Prediction details: Zander Botha Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 4:38 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: -6.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 34.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 81.5 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 33.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h Running and total Run: 9:14 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 8:05 (3:14 / km) Error: +1:09 / +0:28 / km Overall prediction: 27:00 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 4:38 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 17:40 (34.0 km/h) Run: 9:14 (3:42 / km) Total: 27:00
3 / 4	Robert Robin KEN	+122 s +98 s	G3 / G5	10:39 8:14	32:28	Show details Prediction details: Robert Robin Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +122 s Time: 6:34 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +98 s Fehler: 23.5 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.3 km/h Gap ahead: 34.0 s Gap behind: 45.5 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 30.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.02 km/h Running and total Run: 10:39 (4:16 / km) Historical basis: 4:18 / km Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 8:14 (3:18 / km) Error: +2:25 / +0:58 / km Overall prediction: 32:28 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 6:34 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 19:48 (30.3 km/h) Run: 10:39 (4:16 / km) Total: 32:28 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:42 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m About 111.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7	Ismael Mungai KEN	+167 s +99 s	G4 / G6	11:48 9:30	35:04	Show details Prediction details: Ismael Mungai Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +167 s Time: 7:19 Pace: 1:50 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +99 s Fehler: 68.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.96 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.3 km/h Gap ahead: 45.5 s Gap behind: 69.0 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 29.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.62 km/h Running and total Run: 11:48 (4:43 / km) Historical basis: 4:42 / km Best comparable pace: 4:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 9:30 (3:48 / km) Error: +2:18 / +0:55 / km Overall prediction: 35:04 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 7:19 (1:50 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 20:29 (29.3 km/h) Run: 11:48 (4:43 / km) Total: 35:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:42 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m About 157.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 9	Gavin Ojal KEN	+236 s +139 s	G5 / G7	12:42 10:26	37:29	Show details Prediction details: Gavin Ojal Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +236 s Time: 8:28 Pace: 2:07 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +139 s Fehler: 97.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.8 km/h Gap ahead: 69.0 s Gap behind: 1,170.2 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 27.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.82 km/h Running and total Run: 12:42 (5:05 / km) Historical basis: 5:04 / km Best comparable pace: 5:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:26 (4:10 / km) Error: +2:16 / +0:55 / km Overall prediction: 37:29 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 8:28 (2:07 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 20:51 (28.8 km/h) Run: 12:42 (5:05 / km) Total: 37:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:42 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m About 226.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11	Joel Ouma KEN	+1,406 s +346 s	G6 / G9	14:26 10:44	1:01:32	Show details Prediction details: Joel Ouma Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1,406 s Time: 27:58 Pace: 7:00 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +346 s Fehler: 1,060.2 s Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.4 km/h Gap ahead: 1,170.2 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 26.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.97 km/h Running and total Run: 14:26 (5:47 / km) Historical basis: 5:45 / km Best comparable pace: 5:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:44 (4:18 / km) Error: +3:42 / +1:29 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:32 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 27:58 (7:00 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 23:40 (25.4 km/h) Run: 14:26 (5:47 / km) Total: 1:01:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:42 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m About 1396.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Ahmed Shamseldin EGY	+0 s +20 s	G0 / G3	8:33		Show details Prediction details: Ahmed Shamseldin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 4:32 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 32.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:33 (3:25 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 4:32 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Christian Byiringiro RWA	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G4	9:32		Show details Prediction details: Christian Byiringiro Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 4:32 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 29.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:32 (3:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 4:32 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Caesar Marie MRI	+0 s +104 s	G0 / G5	9:32		Show details Prediction details: Caesar Marie Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 4:32 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +104 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:32 (3:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 4:32 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Christian Guandaro KEN	+0 s +139 s	G0 / G11	8:57		Show details Prediction details: Christian Guandaro Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 4:32 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +139 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 11 (1 people) Speed: 0.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:57 (3:35 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 4:32 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Akhil Obura KEN	+0 s +111 s	G0 / G8	10:21		Show details Prediction details: Akhil Obura Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 4:32 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +111 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 25.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:21 (4:08 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 4:32 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Soud Saeed al mandhry KEN	+0 s +235 s	G0 / G10	11:18		Show details Prediction details: Soud Saeed al mandhry Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 12–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 4:32 Pace: 1:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +235 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 22.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 11:18 (4:31 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 4:32 (1:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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