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Youth Women

11.11.2025 Kilifi KEN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Kilifi

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error48.6 s
Mean bike-speed error2.16 km/h
Correct bike groups1/4
No history2
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Taylor Foster
RSA
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:35
8:37
 28:51
Show details
Prediction details: Taylor Foster

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:59
Pace: 1:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 11.3 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:35 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:37 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 28:51
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 3:59 (1:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 19:04 (31.3 km/h)
Run: 9:35 (3:50 / km)
Total: 28:51
2 / 2 Rachel O'Donoghue
ZIM
+11 s
+38 s
G1 / G2
 10:27
8:33
 29:43
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel O'Donoghue

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 4:10
Pace: 1:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -26.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.3 s
Gap behind: 47.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:27 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:33 (3:25 / km)
Error: +1:54 / +0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 29:43
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 4:10 (1:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 19:04 (31.3 km/h)
Run: 10:27 (4:11 / km)
Total: 29:43
3 / 3 Joudy Fathy
EGY
+174 s
+44 s
G2 / G3
 11:08
8:55
 36:04
Show details
Prediction details: Joudy Fathy

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +174 s
Time: 6:53
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 130.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 114.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -5.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:08 (4:27 / km)
Historical basis: 4:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:55 (3:34 / km)
Error: +2:13 / +0:53 / km
Overall prediction: 36:04
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:53 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 22:02 (25.1 km/h)
Run: 11:08 (4:27 / km)
Total: 36:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:03
Pace: 1:01 / 100 m
About 170.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Kyra Elena Marschall
NAM
+59 s
+97 s
G2 / G4
 12:32
10:33
 37:28
Show details
Prediction details: Kyra Elena Marschall

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 4:58
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +97 s
Fehler: -37.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 47.9 s
Gap behind: 114.8 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:32 (5:01 / km)
Historical basis: 5:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:33 (4:13 / km)
Error: +1:59 / +0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 37:28
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 4:58 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 22:02 (25.1 km/h)
Run: 12:32 (5:01 / km)
Total: 37:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:03
Pace: 1:01 / 100 m
About 55.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5 Faith Mugweru
KEN
+0 s
+193 s
G0 / G5
13:24
Show details
Prediction details: Faith Mugweru

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:59
Pace: 1:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +193 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 22.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:24 (5:22 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:59 (1:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 MukantwaLi Esther
RWA
+0 s
+229 s
G0 / G6
14:47
Show details
Prediction details: MukantwaLi Esther

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:59
Pace: 1:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +229 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 21.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:47 (5:55 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:59 (1:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.