Prediction comparison

Elite Men

26.10.2025 Limón, Costa Rica CRC

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Limon

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 48/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 56.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error10.8

Mean swim error46.1 s

Mean bike-speed error2.50 km/h

Correct bike groups6/38

No history1

Within the 80% range25.6 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 9	Jorge Emmanuel Alemañez Martínez CUB	+11 s +1 s	G1 / G5	17:30 15:24	48:01	Show details Prediction details: Jorge Emmanuel Alemañez Martínez Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 7–8 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 9 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 10.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 33 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 39.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 10.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 38.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.91 km/h Running and total Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:24 (3:05 / km) Error: +2:06 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: 48:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:10 (39.6 km/h) Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Total: 48:01
2 / 1	Alain Brian Fernández Pérez CUB	+42 s +3 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:16 16:02	50:05	Show details Prediction details: Alain Brian Fernández Pérez Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 8–15 Top-10 probability: 55 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 38.5 s H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 40.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.44 km/h Running and total Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 9 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km) Error: +2:14 / +0:27 / km Overall prediction: 50:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Total: 50:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 26.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5	Gerald Rojas Carvajal CRC	+42 s +2 s	G2 / G3	18:16 15:22	50:05	Show details Prediction details: Gerald Rojas Carvajal Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 8–15 Top-10 probability: 58 % Result: 5 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 39.6 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 4.4 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.42 km/h Running and total Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 97 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:22 (3:04 / km) Error: +2:54 / +0:35 / km Overall prediction: 50:05 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Total: 50:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 26.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6	Mauro Quesada Zúñiga CRC	+30 s +6 s	G2 / G1	18:24 16:48	50:13	Show details Prediction details: Mauro Quesada Zúñiga Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 9–13 Top-10 probability: 53 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 24.0 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 50 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.0 s Gap behind: 4.3 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.24 km/h Running and total Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:48 (3:22 / km) Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 50:13 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.4 km/h) Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km) Total: 50:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 15 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 7	Oliver Batista PAN	+61 s +11 s	G4 / G1	17:30 16:50	51:03	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Batista Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 8–13 Top-10 probability: 64 % Result: 7 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 10:23 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 50.2 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.5 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.69 km/h Running and total Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 51:03 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Total: 51:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 35.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 34	Steven López Fuentes CRC	+65 s +72 s	G4 / G8	17:44 17:35	51:17	Show details Prediction details: Steven López Fuentes Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 8–14 Top-10 probability: 35 % Result: 34 Deviation: -28 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +72 s Fehler: -7.0 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 81 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 8 (4 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.55 km/h Running and total Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 65 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 51:17 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km) Total: 51:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 50.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 30	Sebastian Morales Arce CRC	+34 s +9 s	G2 / G4	19:45 18:37	51:34	Show details Prediction details: Sebastian Morales Arce Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 12–21 Top-10 probability: 9 % Result: 30 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 25.3 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 81 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.3 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.92 km/h Running and total Run: 19:45 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 60 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:37 (3:43 / km) Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 51:34 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:45 (3:57 / km) Total: 51:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
8 / 3	Gustavo Alejandro Cano Pérez GUA	+38 s +0 s	G2 / G1	19:55 16:20	51:44	Show details Prediction details: Gustavo Alejandro Cano Pérez Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 13–22 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 3 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 10:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 38.1 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 1.6 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 41.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.00 km/h Running and total Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km) Historical basis: 4:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 80 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Error: +3:35 / +0:43 / km Overall prediction: 51:44 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.4 km/h) Run: 19:55 (3:59 / km) Total: 51:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 23.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 22	Iker Batista PAN	+85 s +29 s	G3 / G4	18:24 17:13	51:52	Show details Prediction details: Iker Batista Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 13–27 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 22 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +85 s Time: 10:47 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 55.7 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 5.6 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.23 km/h Running and total Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:27 / km) Error: +1:11 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 51:52 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:58 (37.4 km/h) Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km) Total: 51:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 69.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 2	Samuel Zuluaga Cardona COL	+90 s +11 s	G3 / G1	18:53 16:15	52:21	Show details Prediction details: Samuel Zuluaga Cardona Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 11–32 Top-10 probability: 10 % Result: 2 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +90 s Time: 10:52 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 79.3 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.84 %, Sicherheit 69 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.6 s Gap behind: 8.9 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.27 km/h Running and total Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 1.66 %, Sicherheit 59 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Error: +2:38 / +0:32 / km Overall prediction: 52:21 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:58 (37.4 km/h) Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km) Total: 52:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:47 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 65.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 28	David Ballesta Garcia DOM	+75 s +53 s	G3 / G7	19:09 17:04	52:37	Show details Prediction details: David Ballesta Garcia Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 15–30 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +75 s Time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: 22.4 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 8.8 s Result: Group 7 (4 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.75 km/h Running and total Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 72 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 (3:25 / km) Error: +2:05 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: 52:37 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:58 (37.4 km/h) Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km) Total: 52:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 60.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 15	Dylan Giel ARU	+67 s +25 s	G4 / G6	19:17 15:51	52:50	Show details Prediction details: Dylan Giel Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 13–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 10:29 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 42.3 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 3.0 s Result: Group 6 (4 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.75 km/h Running and total Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 1.29 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km) Error: +3:26 / +0:41 / km Overall prediction: 52:50 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km) Total: 52:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 52.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 36	Alexis Gabriel Vasquez Fernandez DOM	+58 s +39 s	G4 / G8	19:29 18:55	53:02	Show details Prediction details: Alexis Gabriel Vasquez Fernandez Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 15–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 36 Deviation: -23 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 10:20 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 18.7 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.94 %, Sicherheit 85 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 3.5 s Result: Group 8 (4 people) Speed: 35.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h Running and total Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 69 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:47 / km) Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 53:02 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km) Total: 53:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 42.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 20	Daniel Nietzen Rivera CRC	+101 s +22 s	G5 / G4	17:29 17:01	53:13	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Nietzen Rivera Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 9–23 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 20 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +101 s Time: 11:03 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 78.5 s H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.69 km/h Running and total Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 1.79 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:01 (3:24 / km) Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 53:13 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (35.9 km/h) Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km) Total: 53:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 86.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 8	Jose Andrés Artavia Morales CRC	+55 s +2 s	G4 / G1	19:53 17:19	53:26	Show details Prediction details: Jose Andrés Artavia Morales Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 15–22 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 8 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 53.1 s H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.53 km/h Running and total Run: 19:53 (3:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:59 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 96 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km) Error: +2:34 / +0:31 / km Overall prediction: 53:26 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 19:53 (3:59 / km) Total: 53:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 40.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 4	David Alejandro Vásquez Ramos COL	+65 s +2 s	G4 / G1	20:01 16:24	53:34	Show details Prediction details: David Alejandro Vásquez Ramos Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 18–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 63.2 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 54 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 41.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.41 km/h Running and total Run: 20:01 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:01 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 54 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Error: +3:37 / +0:43 / km Overall prediction: 53:34 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 20:01 (4:00 / km) Total: 53:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 39.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 13	Samuel Aristizabal Restrepo COL	+70 s +27 s	G3 / G4	20:09 16:28	53:37	Show details Prediction details: Samuel Aristizabal Restrepo Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 18–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 10:32 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 43.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.0 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h Running and total Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:58 / km Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.60 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km) Error: +3:41 / +0:44 / km Overall prediction: 53:37 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:58 (37.4 km/h) Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km) Total: 53:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 55.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 24	Mariano Jose Nogueras Irizarry PUR	+105 s +58 s	G5 / G6	17:54 16:44	53:38	Show details Prediction details: Mariano Jose Nogueras Irizarry Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 20–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +105 s Time: 11:07 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: 46.7 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 2.3 s Result: Group 6 (4 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.43 km/h Running and total Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km) Error: +1:10 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 53:38 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:07 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (35.9 km/h) Run: 17:54 (3:35 / km) Total: 53:38 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 89.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 17	David Aguirre Cardenas COL	+50 s +1 s	G4 / G4 correct	20:16 16:38	53:49	Show details Prediction details: David Aguirre Cardenas Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 16–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 49.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 4.7 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.05 km/h Running and total Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km) Error: +3:38 / +0:44 / km Overall prediction: 53:49 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 20:16 (4:03 / km) Total: 53:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 35.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 26	Juan Miguel Umaña Vidal COL	+50 s +17 s	G4 / G6	20:28 17:30	54:01	Show details Prediction details: Juan Miguel Umaña Vidal Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 20–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 26 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: 32.5 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 6 (4 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h Running and total Run: 20:28 (4:06 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Error: +2:58 / +0:36 / km Overall prediction: 54:01 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 20:28 (4:06 / km) Total: 54:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 34.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 14	Anderson Samuel Andrés Tohom Alvarado GUA	+49 s +15 s	G4 / G4 correct	20:45 16:30	54:18	Show details Prediction details: Anderson Samuel Andrés Tohom Alvarado Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 23–29 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 10:11 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 34.2 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.41 km/h Running and total Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km) Historical basis: 4:13 / km Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -1.46 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:30 (3:18 / km) Error: +4:15 / +0:51 / km Overall prediction: 54:18 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km) Total: 54:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 34.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 25	Isaac Chaves Nuñez CRC	+64 s +3 s	G4 / G3	20:51 18:16	54:24	Show details Prediction details: Isaac Chaves Nuñez Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 21–33 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 10:26 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 61.0 s H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 39.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.82 km/h Running and total Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:39 / km) Error: +2:35 / +0:31 / km Overall prediction: 54:24 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km) Total: 54:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 49 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 23	Rodrigo Crovetto Chassoul CRC	+104 s +58 s	G5 / G7	18:46 16:31	54:30	Show details Prediction details: Rodrigo Crovetto Chassoul Placement Prediction: 23 80% range: 17–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +104 s Time: 11:06 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: 46.3 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 7 (4 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.33 km/h Running and total Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Error: +2:15 / +0:27 / km Overall prediction: 54:30 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 11:06 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (35.9 km/h) Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km) Total: 54:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 89.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 12	Martin Guevara Mejia COL	+107 s +12 s	G5 / G4	18:47 16:26	54:31	Show details Prediction details: Martin Guevara Mejia Placement Prediction: 24 80% range: 25–31 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: 12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +107 s Time: 11:09 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 95.0 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 66 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.3 s Gap behind: 15.9 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.43 km/h Running and total Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.33 %, Sicherheit 61 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km) Error: +2:21 / +0:28 / km Overall prediction: 54:31 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 11:09 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (35.9 km/h) Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Total: 54:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 92.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 33	Julian Arias Rojas CRC	+55 s +26 s	G4 / G4 correct	21:18 20:09	54:51	Show details Prediction details: Julian Arias Rojas Placement Prediction: 25 80% range: 24–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 33 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 10:17 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 28.9 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.7 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.61 km/h Running and total Run: 21:18 (4:16 / km) Historical basis: 4:13 / km Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 76 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:09 (4:02 / km) Error: +1:09 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 54:51 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 21:18 (4:16 / km) Total: 54:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 40 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 10	Sergio Campos Hernandez CRC	+99 s +15 s	G5 / G4	19:10 16:05	54:54	Show details Prediction details: Sergio Campos Hernandez Placement Prediction: 26 80% range: 27–32 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: 16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +99 s Time: 11:01 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 84.2 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.9 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.39 km/h Running and total Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -1.33 %, Sicherheit 77 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:13 / km) Error: +3:05 / +0:37 / km Overall prediction: 54:54 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 11:01 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (35.9 km/h) Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km) Total: 54:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 84.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 31	Adrian Muñoz CRC	+47 s +13 s	G4 / G4 correct	22:59 18:45	56:32	Show details Prediction details: Adrian Muñoz Placement Prediction: 27 80% range: 31–33 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 31 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 10:09 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 33.6 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 60 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.35 km/h Running and total Run: 22:59 (4:36 / km) Historical basis: 4:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -1.48 %, Sicherheit 34 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:45 (3:45 / km) Error: +4:14 / +0:51 / km Overall prediction: 56:32 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 22:59 (4:36 / km) Total: 56:32 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 31.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 29	Angel Julian Vilema Cobos ECU	+131 s +27 s	G5 / G7	21:07 17:35	56:51	Show details Prediction details: Angel Julian Vilema Cobos Placement Prediction: 28 80% range: 34–35 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 29 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +131 s Time: 11:33 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 103.5 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.6 s Gap behind: 8.2 s Result: Group 7 (4 people) Speed: 38.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.78 km/h Running and total Run: 21:07 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 49 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Error: +3:32 / +0:42 / km Overall prediction: 56:51 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (35.9 km/h) Run: 21:07 (4:13 / km) Total: 56:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 115.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 39	Daniel Montes DOM	+74 s +61 s	G3 / G9	24:01 23:31	57:29	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Montes Placement Prediction: 29 80% range: 34–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 39 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: 10:36 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: 13.1 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 1.16 %, Sicherheit 88 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 33.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.69 km/h Running and total Run: 24:01 (4:48 / km) Historical basis: 4:46 / km Best comparable pace: 4:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 79 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:31 (4:42 / km) Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 57:29 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:58 (37.4 km/h) Run: 24:01 (4:48 / km) Total: 57:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 59.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 38	Aĺain Gonzalez DOM	+123 s +128 s	G5 / G10	23:27 18:11	59:11	Show details Prediction details: Aĺain Gonzalez Placement Prediction: 30 80% range: 35–36 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 38 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +123 s Time: 11:25 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +128 s Fehler: -5.1 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 15.9 s Gap behind: 7.6 s Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 34.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h Running and total Run: 23:27 (4:41 / km) Historical basis: 4:34 / km Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 65 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:11 (3:38 / km) Error: +5:16 / +1:03 / km Overall prediction: 59:11 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:25 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (35.9 km/h) Run: 23:27 (4:41 / km) Total: 59:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 108 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 18	Santiago Miranda Vargas CRC	+139 s +16 s	G5 / G6	25:52 16:33	1:01:36	Show details Prediction details: Santiago Miranda Vargas Placement Prediction: 31 80% range: 37–37 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +139 s Time: 11:41 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 122.7 s H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -1.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.2 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 6 (4 people) Speed: 38.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.74 km/h Running and total Run: 25:52 (5:10 / km) Historical basis: 5:18 / km Best comparable pace: 5:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 89 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Error: +9:19 / +1:52 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:36 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 11:41 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (35.9 km/h) Run: 25:52 (5:10 / km) Total: 1:01:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 123.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 37	Brian David Prieto Espitia COL	+84 s +23 s	G3 / G8	39:12 19:24	1:12:40	Show details Prediction details: Brian David Prieto Espitia Placement Prediction: 32 80% range: 38–38 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 37 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +84 s Time: 10:46 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 61.2 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.8 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 8 (4 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.85 km/h Running and total Run: 39:12 (7:50 / km) Historical basis: 8:02 / km Best comparable pace: 8:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:24 (3:53 / km) Error: +19:48 / +3:58 / km Overall prediction: 1:12:40 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:46 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:58 (37.4 km/h) Run: 39:12 (7:50 / km) Total: 1:12:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 69.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11	Santiago Fernandez PUR	+46 s +1 s	G4 / G1	18:03		Show details Prediction details: Santiago Fernandez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 10:08 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 45.0 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 60 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.4 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.50 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 31.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16	Fabián Bonilla Leiva CRC	+0 s +5 s	G0 / G4	16:40		Show details Prediction details: Fabián Bonilla Leiva Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 39–39 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19	Diego Lucero PAN	+140 s +42 s	G5 / G7	16:09		Show details Prediction details: Diego Lucero Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 19 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +140 s Time: 11:42 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 98.4 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (9 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (4 people) Speed: 39.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.07 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:14 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:42 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:24 (35.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 125.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 21	Noah Mathias León Alvarado CRC	+21 s +3 s	G1 / G4	17:07		Show details Prediction details: Noah Mathias León Alvarado Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 21 Deviation: -21 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 18.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 66 % Speed: 39.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.0 s Gap behind: 9.0 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.51 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:25 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:10 (39.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 27	Emanuel Herrera Ramírez CRC	+62 s +21 s	G4 / G4 correct	17:46		Show details Prediction details: Emanuel Herrera Ramírez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 27 Deviation: -27 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 10:24 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 41.3 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 32 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 47.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 32	Ángel David Ernesto Aguilar Bolaños GUA	+40 s +20 s	G2 / G4	19:23		Show details Prediction details: Ángel David Ernesto Aguilar Bolaños Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 32 Deviation: -32 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 19.7 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.6 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 4 (14 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:53 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:07 (38.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 24.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 35	Eduardo Andres Carretero PUR	+65 s +90 s	G4 / G8	17:59		Show details Prediction details: Eduardo Andres Carretero Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 35 Deviation: -35 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 10:27 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +90 s Fehler: -24.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (15 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 8 (4 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.23 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:36 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 39.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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