Prediction comparison

Elite Men

09.11.2025 Saly Beach West SEN

Race information and calculation basis

2025 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Saly

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 09.11.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.4

Mean swim error109.7 s

Mean bike-speed error0.84 km/h

Correct bike groups2/5

No history3

Within the 80% range12.5 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 4	Ziad Bouchikha MAR	+0 s +8 s	G1 / G2	20:00 23:16	53:16	Show details Prediction details: Ziad Bouchikha Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: -8.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 35.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 18.0 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 34.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.93 km/h Running and total Run: 20:00 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:16 (4:19 / km) Error: −3:16 / −0:36 / km Overall prediction: 53:16 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:16 (35.0 km/h) Run: 20:00 (3:42 / km) Total: 53:16
2 / 5	Adam Kermadi MAR	+18 s +35 s	G2 / G3	19:19 21:35	55:11	Show details Prediction details: Adam Kermadi Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:46 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -17.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Gap ahead: 18.0 s Gap behind: 98.6 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 32.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.02 km/h Running and total Run: 19:19 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:35 (4:00 / km) Error: −2:16 / −0:25 / km Overall prediction: 55:11 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 35:34 (32.7 km/h) Run: 19:19 (3:35 / km) Total: 55:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 14.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Malick Diop SEN	+117 s +34 s	G3 / G3 correct	23:46 19:59	59:47	Show details Prediction details: Malick Diop Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +117 s Time: 11:25 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +34 s Fehler: 82.6 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.2 km/h Gap ahead: 98.6 s Gap behind: 424.6 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 32.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.54 km/h Running and total Run: 23:46 (4:24 / km) Historical basis: 4:24 / km Best comparable pace: 4:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (3:42 / km) Error: +3:47 / +0:42 / km Overall prediction: 59:47 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:25 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:04 (34.2 km/h) Run: 23:46 (4:24 / km) Total: 59:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 112.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7	Ismael Mungai KEN	+541 s +158 s	G4 / G4 correct	26:25 26:19	1:14:23	Show details Prediction details: Ismael Mungai Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +541 s Time: 18:29 Pace: 2:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +158 s Fehler: 383.2 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 424.6 s Gap behind: 66.4 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 28.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.39 km/h Running and total Run: 26:25 (4:54 / km) Historical basis: 4:54 / km Best comparable pace: 4:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 26:19 (4:52 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:14:23 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 18:29 (2:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:50 (30.0 km/h) Run: 26:25 (4:54 / km) Total: 1:14:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 537.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8	Modeste Gahel Sedode Assah BEN	+608 s +550 s	G4 / G5	32:56 26:26	1:20:54	Show details Prediction details: Modeste Gahel Sedode Assah Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +608 s Time: 19:36 Pace: 2:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +550 s Fehler: 57.6 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 66.4 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 30.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h Running and total Run: 32:56 (6:06 / km) Historical basis: 6:06 / km Best comparable pace: 6:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:26 (4:54 / km) Error: +6:30 / +1:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:20:54 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 19:36 (2:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:50 (30.0 km/h) Run: 32:56 (6:06 / km) Total: 1:20:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:32 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 603.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1	Youssef Slama TUN	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G1	20:29		Show details Prediction details: Youssef Slama Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 35.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:29 (3:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Mohamed Amine Khemais TUN	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G2	21:32		Show details Prediction details: Mohamed Amine Khemais Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 34.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:32 (3:59 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Ala Saidane TUN	+0 s +2 s	G0 / G2	23:46		Show details Prediction details: Ala Saidane Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 33.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:46 (4:24 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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